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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Ben Muse</title>
<tagline mode="escaped" type="text/html">Economics and Alaska</tagline>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111345480606322176" rel="service.edit" title="Change of Address" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-13T20:56:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-14T05:00:06Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-14T05:00:06Z</created>
<link href="#111345480606322176" rel="alternate" title="Change of Address" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Change of Address</title>
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<b>Change of Address</b>

I won't be posting to this address any more. From now on, I'll be posting on my new blog, at <a href="http://benmuse.typepad.com/ben_muse/">http://benmuse.typepad.com/ben_muse/</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111297283374794385" rel="service.edit" title="Go here for a while" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-08T07:05:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-08T15:07:13Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-08T15:07:13Z</created>
<link href="#111297283374794385" rel="alternate" title="Go here for a while" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111297283374794385</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Go here for a while</title>
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<b>Go here for a while</b>

I'm going to experiment with TypePad for a few days.  

I will be posting to <a href="http://benmuse.typepad.com/ben_muse/">http://benmuse.typepad.com/ben_muse/</a>
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</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111292693833755390" rel="service.edit" title="What Are the Implications of a Lamy WTO Victory?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-07T18:22:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-08T05:37:42Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-08T02:22:18Z</created>
<link href="#111292693833755390" rel="alternate" title="What Are the Implications of a Lamy WTO Victory?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111292693833755390</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">What Are the Implications of a Lamy WTO Victory?</title>
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<b>What Are the Implications of a Lamy WTO Victory?</b>

As part of a gloomy review of trade developments, Irwin M. Stelzer describes the implications of a Pascal Lamy victory in the WTO Director-General race: <a href="http://www.truthabouttrade.org/article.asp?id=3658">"Free Trade?</a>" (<i>Truth about Trade &amp; Technology</i>, April 6): <ul>
<i>"The Europeans and the developing nations profess horror at the appointment of Paul Wolfowitz to head the World Bank. They say he doesn't know anything about development, but really worry that he knows too much: that loans to undemocratic kleptocracies might fatten Swiss bank accounts, but do little to fatten starving citizens of so-called developing countries.

But Gerhard Schröder and his friends were reluctant to oppose the Wolfowitz appointment, lest they appear to be snubbing President Bush's recent friendly overtures. So they approved the appointment, and will seek a quid pro quo--the appointment of France's Pascal Lamy to fill the vacancy at the head of the World Trade Organization. Lamy is dedicated to the maintenance of the European Union's protectionist agricultural policy, which further enriches well-off French farmers at the expense of poor farmers in developing nations. If he is appointed, and spurns Bush's proposal to end both E.U. and U.S. export-inducing farm subsidies, the Doha round is doomed."</i>
</ul>
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</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111292573409913102" rel="service.edit" title="Cuttaree to speak in DC" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-07T18:02:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-08T02:18:54Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-08T02:02:14Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Cuttaree to speak in DC</title>
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<b>Cuttaree to speak in DC</b>

Mauritian Foreign Minister Jaya Krishna Cuttaree will speak at the National Press Club on April 20: <a href="http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=45517">Jaya Krishna Cuttaree to Discuss 'Trade and Development: A Vision for a Better WTO'</a> (U.S. Newswire, April 7)</div>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111285862487713515" rel="service.edit" title="Offshore Outsourcing of Medical Services to India" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-06T23:23:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-07T07:33:24Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-07T07:23:44Z</created>
<link href="#111285862487713515" rel="alternate" title="Offshore Outsourcing of Medical Services to India" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111285862487713515</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Offshore Outsourcing of Medical Services to India</title>
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<b>Offshore Outsourcing of Medical Services to India</b>

This sounds like a good thing: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/07/business/worldbusiness/07health.html?">"Low Costs Lure Foreigners to India for Medical Care"</a>  (<i>New York Times</i>, Saritha Rai, April 7). <ul>
<i>"BANGALORE, India, April 6 - Until recently, Robert Beeney, a 64-year-old real estate consultant from San Francisco, lived in pain. But when he finally decided to do something about the discomfort, he spurned all the usual choices.

His doctors advised that he get his hip joint replaced, which his insurer would pay for, but after doing some research on the Internet, he decided to get a different procedure - joint resurfacing - not covered by his insurance. And instead of going to a nearby hospital, he chose to go to India and paid $6,600, a fraction of the $25,000 he would have paid at home for the surgery..."</i>
</ul>Offshore outsourcing of medical services could play an important role in helping us cope with rising medical costs.</div>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111285683572088917" rel="service.edit" title="UK Congestion Pricing" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-06T22:53:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-07T06:59:57Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-07T06:53:55Z</created>
<link href="#111285683572088917" rel="alternate" title="UK Congestion Pricing" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111285683572088917</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">UK Congestion Pricing</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;UK Congestion Pricing&lt;/b&gt;

John Palmer, at &lt;a href="http://the-econoclast.blogspot.com/"&gt;The Eclectic Econoclast&lt;/a&gt;, provides an update on London's program of using prices to address congestion externalities: &lt;a href="http://the-econoclast.blogspot.com/2005/04/congestion-and-price-elasticity-of.html"&gt;"Congestion and Price Elasticity of Demand"&lt;/a&gt; .

Here are links to earlier posts: &lt;a href="&lt;a"&gt;"The London Congestion Charge is Working"&lt;/a&gt;.</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111285521822735966" rel="service.edit" title="Two good reads" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-06T22:26:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-07T06:47:59Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-07T06:26:58Z</created>
<link href="#111285521822735966" rel="alternate" title="Two good reads" type="text/html"/>
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<b>Two good reads</b>

Two years ago, Kevin Brancato of <a href="http://www.truckandbarter.com/">Truck and Barter</a> scanned and posted a 1948 essay on rent control, by Milton Friedman and George Stigler.   Brad Delong found it and linked to it: <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/04/roofs_or_ceilin.html">"Roofs or Ceilings?"</a>

More recently, Ben Bernanke (late of the Federal Reserve Board, recently appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors), explained "how monetary policy is actually conducted." Brad linked to it: <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/04/implementing_mo.html">"Implementing Monetary Policy"</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111285460586441033" rel="service.edit" title="Medieval public choice theory" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-06T22:16:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-07T07:19:01Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-07T06:16:45Z</created>
<link href="#111285460586441033" rel="alternate" title="Medieval public choice theory" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111285460586441033</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Medieval public choice theory</title>
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<b>Medieval public choice theory</b>

Alex Tabarrok (at <a href="http://marginalrevolution.blogs.com/marginalrevolution/">Marginal Revolution</a>) points to a paper on "Voting in Medieval Universities and Religious Orders" by Iain McLean and Haidee Lorrey :<a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2005/04/electing_a_pope.html">"Electing a Pope"</a>.

The abstract:
<ul>
<i>"We report work in progress, not polished findings. As is now popular in political science, we wish to take institutions seriously as both a rational response to dilemmas in which rational agents found themselves and a frame to which later rational agents adapted their behaviour in turn. Medieval corporate agents knew that they needed choice procedures. Although the social choice advances of ancient Greece and Rome were not rediscovered until the high middle ages, the rational design of choice institutions predated their rediscovery and took some new paths. Both Ramon Lull (ca 1232-1316) and Nicholas of Cusa (a.k.a Cusanus; 1401-64) made contributions which, until we rediscovered their work in social choice, were believed to be centuries more recent. Lull promoted the method of pairwise comparison, and proposes the Copeland rule to select a winner. Cusanus proposes the Borda rule, which should properly be renamed the Cusanus rule. </i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>Voting might be needed in any institution ruled by more than one person, where decisions could not simply be handed down from above. Medieval theologians no doubt believed that God’s word was handed down from above; but they well knew that they often had to decide among rival human interpretations of it. Even if the western Catholic Church be regarded as a single authoritative institution, in which rules were handed down from on high, it faced its own decision problem every time a new Pope needed to be elected. Bodies not directly in the hierarchy of the Church had to evolve their own decision procedures. The chief such bodies were commercial and urban corporations; religious orders; and universities."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111188387837711365" rel="service.edit" title="What Does Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Think?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-05T23:27:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-06T07:27:16Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-27T00:37:58Z</created>
<link href="#111188387837711365" rel="alternate" title="What Does Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Think?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111188387837711365</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">What Does Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Think?</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;What Does Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Think?&lt;/b&gt;

Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, the Foreign and Trade Minister of &lt;a href="http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mp.html"&gt;Mauritius&lt;/a&gt;, is one of the four candidates for Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Here is a favorable profile from the &lt;i&gt;Inter Press Service&lt;/i&gt; of Johannesburg, March 10, by Stefania Bianchi, &lt;a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200503100692.html"&gt;"Trade: Poor Countries' Man Makes a Strong Case"&lt;/a&gt;, and here is his biography from the WTO web site: &lt;a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/bio_cuttaree_e.htm"&gt;"Jaya Krishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt;.

Mauritius is a small island country in the Indian Ocean. A well governed democracy, it's had a remarkably good growth record. For some background, look at this article by Arvind Subramanian from the IMF magazine, &lt;i&gt;Finance &amp; Development&lt;/i&gt;: &lt;a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2001/12/subraman.htm"&gt;"Mauritius: A Case Study"&lt;/a&gt;.

Cuttaree's candidacy has been endorsed by the &lt;a href="http://www.acpsec.org/"&gt;African-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP)&lt;/a&gt; grouping of countries. This is a group of smaller developing countries with historical colonial ties to Europe; they benefit from European tariff preferences (tariff breaks).

In this post I've culled selections from a few of Cuttaree's speeches, to get a better idea of some of the things he stands for. The starting point for this post is a speech he gave to the &lt;a href="http://www.jcuttaree.mu/speechesEng2.htm"&gt;Mauritius Chamber of Commerce and Industry&lt;/a&gt; this past March.

In this speech, he points to the importance of trade to developing countries, points to the problems many of these countries may have in taking advantage of trading opportunities that may open up to them, and argues for the importance of various measures to help them out. I've used other speeches to flesh out some of his points, and to shed light on his negotiating philosophy.

&lt;u&gt;Trade is important to developing countries&lt;/u&gt;

In the Chamber speech, he explained the importance of trade to developing country growth.

He argues that trade isn't an end in itself, but promotes the underlying objective of better living conditions. From the point of view of the developing world, trade is one of several factors, which also include aid and debt-relief, for achieving sustainable development.

However, trade is the most important of these factors: "Trade can be a catalyst in developing a country's productive capacity and growth and lift millions out of poverty and the shackles of marginalisation."

So trade is extremely important to developing countries. The development of a rules-based trading system through the WTO may be more important to smaller developing countries, than to developed countries, or larger developing countries, &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"“an effective and equitable multilateral trading system is in the general interest of every Member. But it is even more vital for us, weak and vulnerable developing countries which have very little economic clout in the world economy. The major players have the option of negotiating bilateral FTA’s and choose those with whom they want to deepen integration. We do not have such options. Only a rule-based trading system will offer the best protection to the rights of small players”&lt;/i&gt; (quoting himself from an earlier speech)&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;u&gt;Developing countries may need special help to take advantage of trade opportunities&lt;/u&gt;

In the same speech, he pointed out that more liberal trading rules will only help countries that have something to trade. Many developing countries, especially small ones, need help here. They can't "produce competitively"; they face "supply side constraints."

On January 26, after addressing the WTO General Council, he participated in a question and answer session sponsored by a group of NGOs. One of his answers, summarized by session organizers (&lt;a href="http://www.tradeobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=48511"&gt;"Minutes of Civil Society Hearing for WTO Director-General Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;), gives a better sense of the "supply constraint" issue. It also indicates that some developing countries have more difficulty with supply contraints than others: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"However one also has to be extremely careful about proposing liberalization of agriculture trade. Because when people talk of developing countries producing more agriculture products if trade liberalized we make a fundamental mistake because developing countries are not a homogenous group. You take a country like Brazil and Mali, both developing countries, however capacity to produce to take account of increased market access are completely different. Africa lives off agriculture. Mostly peasant farmers, and those proponents of liberalized agricultural trade use Africa as an example of a continent which can benefit from increased market access. He says there is a big flaw in that statement because of the capacity to produce competitively in Africa. No roads, ports, refrigeration, SPS problems. Unless these supply side constraints are actually addressed the liberalization of markets in agricultural products is going to benefit a certain number of countries and certainly not the majority of people who we think are going to benefit from that liberalisation...He can see very easily in the case of poultry some large developing countries killing the poultry industry in many parts of Africa."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;While small developing countries may need help with supply constraints, he says in his Chamber speech that, "...it is not WTO's role to address supply side constraints." The WTO does have a "duty to raise awareness of the problem..." and it is "imperative" to encourage meetings between the heads of WTO, the World Bank (WB), and the IMF, to encourage "collaboration" and program coherence. In the NGO session described above, he went on to discuss the role of the WTO, and that of other multilateral organizations, in addressing these supply constraints. From the minutes: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"This is why he says that if you are looking at the liberalization of agriculture trade you must have a coherence between market access and capacity to produce, to have coherence between the WTO and institutions like the WB and development partners like the EU to ensure that the resources are there to build the capacity of these countries in Africa to be able to take account of this access..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;u&gt;Special and differential treatment for developing countries&lt;/u&gt;

In the Chamber speech, he notes that countries differ, and the WTO should address the distinctive needs of developing countries. These countries need &lt;a href="http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2003/investment_sdc_may_2003_2.pdf"&gt;special and differential (S&amp;D) treatment&lt;/a&gt; within multilateral WTO trade treaties.

S&amp;amp;D means more than "a system where developing countries were simply given more time to adapt to negotiated trade rules through temporary exceptions and exemptions." "Temporary exceptions and exemptions" could be things like slower implementation of tariff reductions.

Affirmative and longer term action is necessary. Measures are needed, "to establish rules that can foster development and to come up with measures that will enable developing countries to implement these rules and to reap the benefits of further trade liberalisation."

Examples of of these additional measures may be inferred from these Cuttaree remarks, from 2002, (&lt;a href="http://www.inwent.org/ef-texte/wto02/cuttaree.htm"&gt;"Rules Issues and Special and Differential Treatment"&lt;/a&gt;): &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"There are several instances where the WTO Agreements impose onerous obligations upon developing countries and restrict them from taking initiatives and measures to achieve industrial development (e.g. Subsidies, TRIMs and TRIPS).

The Agreement on Subsidies curtails the right of developing countries to extend assistance and support for industrialization. It eliminates the acceptability of subsidies as a tool for economic development programmes, which however has been agreed to during the Tokyo Round.

The Agreement on trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs) imposes an obligation on developing countries to eliminate the type of investment promotion policies that developing countries could use to promote domestic industry (i.e. obligation on foreign investors to indigenize part of domestic production)..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;u&gt;Small developing countries need tariff preferences&lt;/u&gt;

Many of the least developed countries depend on exemptions or partial exemptions from normal developed country tariffs (tariff preferences) to give them a competitive boost. Negotiations that reduce normal developed country tariffs, erode the effective size of these preferences, and the competitive advantages they provide ("preference erosion").

An IMF publication titled, &lt;a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=15215.0"&gt;"Who Can Explain the Mauritian Miracle: Meade, Romer, Sachs, or Rodrik?"&lt;/a&gt; suggests that there is disagreement on the sources of Mauritian growth. However, this Cuttaree speech from the WTO Minister's meeting at Cancun in 2003, leaves no doubt that he attributes a lot of this growth to trade preferences granted to Mauritius: &lt;a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min03_e/statements_e/st70.doc"&gt;"Statement Circulated by the Honourable Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Minister of Industry and International Trade"&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The positive economic development of Mauritius during the past three decades has been mainly due to a combination of factors, including a stable and democratic political system, good governance but above all due to the preferential market access that we have been enjoying on the EU and the United States markets both for agricultural and non-agricultural products. This access is absolutely essential to countries like mine which do not have the capacity to compete with larger, more resource-based countries.
This preferential access has been instrumental in ensuring the economic development of Mauritius...

From the Mauritian experience, it can be safely assumed that through the extension of preferential access, even the most vulnerable of countries can pursue a successful development and export oriented policy..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Helpful as preferences are, in March he told the Mauritian Chamber of Commerce, &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"We have consistently explained that preferences cannot permanently be part of a trading system which will ultimately lead to free flow of goods and services across national borders. However, given the disparity among levels of development of WTO members and the importance of preferences to weak and vulnerable economies, preference erosion needs to be carefully sequenced so that it does not signal the end of these economies..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;If one point of the trade negotiations is to lower tariff levels, and if the preferences derive their value from the height of the tariffs, there is a problem. A 2003 Mauritian paper on preferences, submitted to the WTO, (TN/MA/W/21), suggests some ways out: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"4. When examining the problem of preference erosion, it is essential to keep in view that, from the perspective of the exporting country, preference erosion would be particularly serious where exports are concentrated in a limited number of products on very few export markets. As a matter of fact, this is the most important feature characterising exports under preferences. While preference schemes, in principle, could cover most, if not all the chapters and tariff lines..., in practice, however, exports are limited to very few products and a limited number of tariff lines.

5. Consequently, addressing preference erosion would effectively mean maintaining tariffs over a certain level for a very narrow range of products, especially since the export basket of the preference beneficiary countries is almost the same...

6. ... products which are of specific interest to the preference beneficiary countries, in particular textiles and clothing, leather products, footwear and fish and fish products. ..only a limited number of specific tariff lines within these broad product categories are of direct concern to these countries. It is proposed that these tariff lines be identified by the countries concerned and a list compiled by the WTO Secretariat. It is further proposed that such tariff lines be either excluded from tariff reduction or that a maximum tariff reduction of 10% on each tariff line so identified be staggered over 10 annual instalments on developed country markets...

8. Necessary technical assistance should urgently be provided, particularly in regard to the identification of the tariff lines referred to...

9. We are further reiterating our proposal for the setting up of a competitiveness fund in the context of global coherence policy making by international financial institutions in order to assist the industrial restructuring and adjustment of countries most affected by the reductions/phasing out of tariffs."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;One advantage of this approach is that, "the momentum of tariff liberalisation would not be disturbed since only a very narrow range of products would be excluded from the process..."

&lt;u&gt;Approach to negotiations&lt;/u&gt;

I thought these remarks to the ACP country trade ministers, shortly before the July 2004 Geneva meetings suggested an attractive combination of principle, pragmatism, and respect for other parties to the negotiations. They're not connected to the Chamber speech, but I'll pass them along: &lt;a href="http://foreign.gov.mu/speech/spacp.htm"&gt;"Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 8th Africa-Carribbean-Pacific Trade Ministers’ Meeting, 11 July 2004"&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"A negotiation has two dimensions – it involves a process and it has a substance...As regards our negotiating substance, I shall refrain from making any elaborate comment at this stage...

...I would like to make a few comments on the process, a consideration that is often neglected although the process may have a significant bearing on the substance. First, at our own level, it is important that we understand that a negotiation is a dynamic process and in a multilateral setting, it will demand constant adjustment and trade-offs. It is therefore important that we transcend our declaratory postures to move into a negotiating mode. It is important that we learn from the lessons of Cancun so as not to be pinned down in the blame game once again. We have the numbers but this is not enough. We must know how we utilise our strength and how we might bargain and persuade and avoid being only negative. We must also learn to seek and broaden our alliances at the WTO so as not to remain isolated.

It is therefore important that we infuse in our stance the right measure of tactical flexibility that will avoid us becoming prisoners of our strategy thus preventing us from participating meaningfully in the negotiations. Of course we must define the red lines below which we are not prepared to cross. But at the same time we must be aware that our partners have their compulsions as well. It is therefore important that we adopt a problem-solving approach as a negotiation cannot be a one track affair nor can there be a winner-takes-all outcome.

Another important aspect is how we focalise on our core issues and prioritise our concerns. In this regard we must put to profit our meeting here to-day. We know what our concerns are and as I said earlier, we have spelt them out in several declarations. As we move towards the writing of the Framework Agreement, it is important that we prioritise those issues, prepare fallback positions and trade-offs and most importantly request our trade experts to develop the sort of language that we would like to see on our concerns in the framework text. It is important that in so doing, we do not open the pandora’s box. Whatever be our convictions, the point of departure of these negotiations remains the Doha mandate to which we have all subscribed. It is important for us to be credible and not to seek to unravel a document which is a delicate compromise and to which we were a party. Success for us will depend on the perception that we are not a Group that just has the numbers to block consensus but, on the contrary, that we have in us the capacity for constructive engagement to put forward ideas and solutions.

As we engage in our deliberations at the level of the ACP, we must be conscious how our meeting dovetails with other processes in which we will be involved. In two days time, we shall move into the larger G-90 Group and from there on we must interface with the larger process on-going in Geneva. In both these instances, we shall have to integrate the concerns of other negotiating groups which may have the same defensive interests as ours but also certain offensive interests which may not be quite ours. We must be able to reconcile those contradictions in a creative manner so that we ensure a balanced outcome with no losers.

In the final analysis, however, I would also like to make one thing clear. In as much as we would like to be constructive and show the required flexibility, we cannot be flexible or be constructive in a process if it is not transparent. We can only do so if the bigger process at the WTO is an inclusive one and we are allowed to participate."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">More coverage of Zoellick's remarks on Lamy</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;More coverage of Zoellick remarks on Lamy&lt;/b&gt;

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick has been in Europe for several days. On Monday and Tuesday (April 4 and 5) he answered interview questions about the WTO DG race. I've posted transcripts of his answers &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_04_01_archive.html#111271297975297962"&gt;here&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_04_01_archive.html#111272800294454511"&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.

The posts above link to early coverage of the story. Here's some links to additional coverage. The &lt;i&gt;Calcutta Telegraph&lt;/i&gt; headlined a Reuters story, &lt;a href="http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050406/asp/business/story_4579952.asp"&gt;"US to back Lamy as next WTO chief"&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;i&gt;MSNBC&lt;/i&gt;'s headline on an AP story read, &lt;a href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7391459/"&gt;"U.S. supports EU's pick to head WTO"&lt;/a&gt;. EUobserver.com: &lt;a href="http://www.euobserver.com/?sid=9&amp;aid=18799"&gt;"US supports Lamy for head of WTO"&lt;/a&gt;. The &lt;i&gt;National Business Review&lt;/i&gt; of New Zealand: &lt;a href="http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=11717&amp;amp;cid=4&amp;amp;cname=Business%20Today"&gt;"World Trade: Lobbying starts for next leader"&lt;/a&gt;. The stories themselves show that Zoellick stopped just short of a formal endorsement of Lamy over the other candidates.

&lt;i&gt;Bloomberg News&lt;/i&gt; (via India's &lt;i&gt;Financial Express&lt;/i&gt;, April 6): &lt;a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=87190"&gt;Lamy is `Strong Candidate' for Top WTO Job: Zoellick&lt;/a&gt; supplemented the story with two paragraphs on potential congressional opposition to Lamy:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The Bureau of National Affairs last month reported that Lamy faces ``substantial opposition on Capitol Hill'' for his decision during his final days as European Union trade commissioner in November to take the U.S. to the WTO over tax legislation...

Citing unidentified staffers for Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley of Iowa and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman William Thomas of California, BNA said the two legislators ``are angry with Lamy over his decision'' to challenge the U.S. over a tax law that replaced earlier legislation that had been deemed illegal by the WTO. "&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;Revised 4-6-05&lt;/i&gt;</content>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Transcript of Zoellick's April 5 remarks on Pascal Lamy's WTO DG candidacy</title>
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<b>Transcript of Zoellick's April 5 remarks on Pascal Lamy's WTO DG candidacy - transcript</b>

Deputy Secretary of State (and former US Trade Representative) Robert Zoellick is traveling through Europe this week.

Today, in a press conference with Elmar Brok, the Chairman of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, he was asked about Pascal Lamy's candidacy for WTO Director-General.

Here are the question and the answer (from <a href="http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/44203.htm">"Press Availability With Elmar Brok, Chairman, European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee. Deputy Secretary Robert B. Zoellick. European Parliament. Brussels, Belgium. April 5, 2005"</a> ):
<ul>
<i>"Question: ...And my second question to you as well: The European Union has nominated Pascal Lamy as a good chief of the WTO. With your personal experience of dealing with Mr. Lamy, do you think he’s a candidate that the United States could back as well, and what do you think the developing world will think about that?

Deputy Secretary Zoellick: ...As for your comment about Commissioner Lamy, I obviously consider Commissioner Lamy both a friend but more importantly a very accomplished trade leader. And so I have said all along, and the United States has said, that we believe that he would be a very strong candidate for that position.

The process for the WTO selection is different than some other processes. What is happening is that the chairman of the general council, who is actually a chairwoman – she’s ambassador from Kenya -- is undertaking consultations with the help of a Canadian official and one other with all of the member states. Now the United States is a big player in the WTO process. Sometimes our support helps; sometimes it doesn’t help. In this case we’re just one vote of many. But we’ve made very clear that we’d be very comfortable with Commissioner Lamy and that I think that he could play a strong role. There are other good candidates as well.

Now, I spoke with Commissioner Lamy shortly before I took this trip, and I know he’s also planning to visit the United States, which I encouraged him to do. The other candidates have done that, and this would give him an opportunity to talk to members of our Congress, meet some of the officials in the executive branch and others. But I think the WTO would be very well served by his candidacy, but there are some other good candidates as well."</i>
</ul>Zoellick was also asked about Lamy's candidacy on April 4, in Portugal.   This post has a transcript of his comments there:<a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_04_01_archive.html#111271297975297962">"Zoellick remarks on Lamy"</a>.</div>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Zoellick remarks on Lamy</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Zoellick remarks on Lamy&lt;/b&gt;

Deputy U.S. Secretary of State (and former U.S. Trade Representative) Robert Zoellick commented on Pascal Lamy's candidacy earlier today.  Aine Gallagher and Marie-Louise Moller report in this story:&lt;a href="http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp;:42525b3c:f11a23518e93c3c?type=businessNews&amp;localeKey=en_IN&amp;amp;storyID=8086899"&gt;"U.S. says Lamy 'strong candidate' for WTO top post"&lt;/a&gt; (Reuters, April 5). &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Former EU trade chief Pascal Lamy is a strong candidate to head the World Trade Organisation but there are also other good candidates, the United States said on Tuesday..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Among other things, Zoellick told a news conference that Lamy would be a "strong candidate," that "The WTO would be very well served by his candidacy but there are other candidates as well," and that "we have made very clear that we'd be very comfortable with (former) Commissioner Lamy and that I think he could play a strong role."

The day before, on April 4, Zoellick was interviewed by the Portuguese newspaper &lt;i&gt;Público&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;a href="http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-8795-PHPSESSID-1d7dbbdd007bfb429f561d51381d8d22.html"&gt;"Zoellick, in Portugal, Discusses Mideast, Russia, Airbus, China"&lt;/a&gt;). Here are related remarks on this issue:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"PÚBLICO: Last questions. Is the Administration prepared to support the European candidate to WTO Pascal Lamy? To kind of reciprocate the European support of Wolfowitz?DEPUTY

SECRETARY ZOELLICK: There's no reciprocity on Wolfowitz. Now Commissioner Lamy and I work very closely together. I consider him a personal friend. And, you know, we have, you know, interviewed all four candidates. But in the discussions, I've emphasized how I think Commissioner Lamy would be a very strong candidate, and I have no doubt that he would be able to rise above the European perspective and serve the overall WTO. Now there are other good candidates as well. The way that process is working, is, in Geneva, in the WTO, countries are having consultations with the Chair of the General Council from Kenya and expressing their preferences. But you know, we made very clear that we'd be very comfortable with Commissioner Lamy, or Pascal Lamy as the WTO Director General. And in part, I think whoever the WTO chooses, we need to have somebody who is strong, intelligent, can work with diverse groups to help get the Doha round done. That's the key objective here as we go forward."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-04-04T20:07:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-05T04:53:21Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-05T04:07:02Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Not all developing countries are alike</title>
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<b>Not all developing countries are alike</b>

Alan Beattie and Frances Williams look at key differences between developing countries, and the implications of these for the WTO Director-General race, and the Doha Round trade negotiations: <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7ad37c7a-a53a-11d9-8616-00000e2511c8.html">"Who's for the WTO?"</a> (<i>Financial Times</i>, April 4)

Many of the least developed countries depend on tariff breaks or preferences from more developed countries, to give them a competitive boost. Trade negotiations that reduce normal developed country tariff barriers will reduce the effective size of these preferences, and the benefits they provide ("preference erosion").

Beattie and Williams point out that:
<ul>
<i>"...those developing countries that benefit from special preferences allowing them easier access to rich markets are concerned that a general liberalisation deal - even one in which they were asked to cut their tariffs by less than rich countries - would see the value of those preferences fall. This would hand export gains to other countries, particularly G20 developing nations such as Brazil, South Africa and Argentina that have relatively efficient and competitive agricultural exporters.

Such "preference erosion", which sets developing countries against each other, has become a large issue in the Doha round. Some aspects of the issue have been around for years - the most obvious one being the Caribbean banana-producing nations that have privileged access to the EU market at the expense of mainland Latin American growers and are seeing the value of those preferences reduced by a reform programme. But a swath of poor nations, in other groupings such as the G33, which brings together countries wanting to protect particular agricultural products, or the G90, which includes the world's poorest countries, share similar concerns about protecting their farmers from the onslaught of low-cost competition...

There is a sense among some other nations that countries such as Brazil and India that dominate the G20, although they are frequently regarded as bellwethers for the developing world, also have their own sectional interests. Together with Australia, the EU and the US, Brazil and India made up an ad-hoc grouping of "five interested parties" that was instrumental in pushing through the agricultural part of last August's framework agreement. But Mr Meléndez says other nations, particularly those that are net importers of food, were resentful at the lack of communication and consultation from that small group...

These tensions spill over into the race for the director-general position. Any candidate wishing to be seen as the champion of the developing world has to make clear that he can bridge the divisions. Mr Cuttaree, whose country </i>[Cuttaree is the Foreign Minister of Mauritius - Ben]<i> is one of the most prominent beneficiaries of preferences and whose core support comes from mostly very poor African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) nations, has argued for preference-dependent countries to be given more time to adjust. He complains that this has led to him being caricatured as a defender of special treatment...

...He sees no contradiction between his position and support for more open global trade, saying his commitment to the Doha round was amply demonstrated by his role in bringing the G90 developing countries back to the negotiations after the collapse in Cancún.

From the other side of the divide, Mr Seixas Corrêa denies developing countries are split into irrevocably warring camps. Brazil and other competitive exporters recognise the concerns of preference-receiving countries, he says. "We have stated clearly that this is a problem that has to be resolved."

Mr Pérez del Castillo's home country, Uruguay, is in a similar position to Brazil, having recently joined the G20 and also belonging to the "Cairns Group" of farm exporters, which favours agricultural liberalisation. Several such nations, including Australia and New Zealand, have declared their support for his candidacy. But Mr Pérez del Castillo stresses the breadth of his support from developing countries in order to insist that he will not be beholden to any single group. "I also have Indonesia on board, which is a net food importing country, and Singapore, which doesn't have any agriculture," he says...</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>Countering the factors dividing the developing world, there are some that bring them together. Developing countries generally maintain a public stance of solidarity against rich countries in the WTO, for example..."</i>
</ul>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-04-04T12:36:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-04T21:13:19Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-04T20:36:02Z</created>
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<b>The WTO Race - Who's Ahead, and the Wolfowitz Factor</b>

Patrick Baert of <i>Agence France-Presse</i> reports on the state of the WTO Director-General race, a day or so into the consultations process: <a href="http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId=CqLc7WeientC4mvnOywrVD29Mv29SzM93Aq">"Shadow of Wolfowitz hangs over WTO amid US-EU bargain fears"</a> (via MENAFN.com, April 4).

Consultations began Monday. Baert passes on one diplomat's conjecture that Lamy and Perez del Castillo are the frontrunners, but that a lot will depend on fluctuations in support as Seixas Correa and Cuttaree withdraw.

Baert's assessment the sources of support for the different candidates:
<ul>
<i>"Lamy formally has the backing of the 25 EU member states, which traditionally tries to perform in unison at the WTO.

Perez del Castillo, a former Uruguayan diplomat, has support from some Latin American countries -- with the notable exception of Brazil, Cuba and Venezuela -- and major farm exporters like Australia and New Zealand.

Cuttaree has official support from the 56 countries in the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) grouping, but Paris has pressed francophone African countries to swing behind Lamy, according to a European diplomat.

Seixas Correa has received the support of China, a fellow heavyweight in the G20 group of developing countries that opposes farm subisdies."</i>
</ul>The nomination of Paul Wolfowitz continues to loom in the background as a potential source of resentment and contention:
<ul>
<i>"Developing countries have raised concerns about the United States and European Union tacitly sharing out the top posts at the major international financial institutions, including the WTO...</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>Media reports have suggested that the appointment of Wolfowitz... was backed by the Europeans in exchange for US support for Lamy at the WTO.

"I hope there is no truth in this story of an understanding: if everything is shared between a few players, it means there is no space for other people," an ambassador for an Asian country at the WTO commented..."</i>
</ul>
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<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-04-03T13:12:00-08:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-03T22:29:29Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-03T21:12:23Z</created>
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<b>Do 60 countries support Perez del Castillo?</b>

The Chinese news service Xinhua passes on Uruguayan press reports that the Foreign Minister is claiming that 60 countries support Perez del Castillo for WTO Director-General: <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/03/content_2779721.htm">"60 countries back Uruguayan candidate for WTO head"</a>  (dated April 2). <ul>
<i>"Some 60 countries support the Uruguayan candidate Carlos Perez del Castillo to be the next general director of the World Trade Organization (WTO), local press quoted Uruguayan Foreign Minister Reinaldo Gargano as saying on Saturday."</i>
</ul>The story also indicates that Uruguay's new left-wing government continues to support Perez del Castillo, a candidate originally put forward by a government to its right: <ul>
<i>" "Uruguay keeps on supporting Perez del Castillo. This has been said before, by the president (Tabare Vazquez) to his Brazilian counterpart, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and in a very clear form we keep that position," Gargano told a press conference Friday evening upon his return to Montevideo from Brazil, where he accompanied the president on a visit."</i>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-04-01T20:22:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-02T05:37:27Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-02T05:22:45Z</created>
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<b>Crowell and Moring's "Doha Developments Update"</b>

The <a href="http://www.crowell.com/content/Firm/Welcome/Welcome.htm">Crowell and Moring</a> law firm publishes a weekly web newsletter on the Doha Round negotiations, the: <a href="http://www.crowell.com/content/Expertise/CMInternational/Publications25/CMInternationalPublications.htm">"Doha Development Update"</a>

Recent issues have been carrying short updates on the week's events in the WTO Director-General race.   The most recent issue (March 25) talks about the lobbying efforts of the Brazilian candidate, Luiz Felipe da Seixas Correa, at this month's meeting of the G-20 developing countries in New Delhi: <a href="http://www.crowell.com/content/Expertise/CMInternational/Publications25/DDU_032505.htm">"Seixas Correa Garners Support at New Delhi Meeting"</a> <ul>
<i>"Indian trade minister Kamal Nath indicated to Brazil's Amorim during the G-20 conclave in New Delhi that India planned to support the candidacy of Brazil's nominee, Luiz Felipe da Seixas Correa for the WTO's Director General post. China and South Africa also indicated support for Seixas Correa, although Pakistan was more guarded (and may throw its support, at least initially, to Pascal Lamy). Mauritius candidate Jaya Krishna Cuttarree also attended the New Delhi meeting and sought support from attendees for his bid. The four candidates have about another week to firm up support from Members before the General Council chair Amina Chawahir Mohamed (Kenya) begins her canvassing of delegations for their formal positions in the winnowing-down process that is set to begin in April."</i>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-03-31T22:39:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-04-02T05:15:03Z</modified>
<created>2005-04-01T02:58:19Z</created>
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<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Getting down to business in the WTO DG race&lt;/b&gt;

Several news stories marked the start of the WTO's two month consultation process, meant to lead to a consensus among member nations on the choice of a new Director-General.

The stories &lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;point to the failure of the last selection process in 1998-1999 (The WTO failed to reach a consensus on a candidate, the process was controverial and caused a lot of hard feelings, and a preoccupation with it prevented adequate preparation for the Seattle Ministers' meetings later in the year, contributing to the failure to lauch a new trade round there.),&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;give some details about this year's selection process,&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;talk about the sources of each candidate's support,&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;and notice the lack of a frontrunner.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Allen Beattie reports, in the &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt; that &lt;a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/3643ec24-a22a-11d9-8483-00000e2511c8.html"&gt;"Selection of new world trade chief too close to call"&lt;/a&gt;.

Beattie briefly describes the process,
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Rather than a formal election, the selection process, which is due to finish by the end of May, involves repeated consultations among WTO members to try to reach a consensus. In a first stage, the chair of the WTO's general council, Kenyan ambassador Amina Mohamed, will consult members of the Geneva-based trade body over the next couple of weeks, after which at least one of the candidates is likely to drop out..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;and then quotes John Weekes, a former Canadian ambassador to the WTO, and the Chair of the General Council at the start of the last selection process, on possible process dynamics:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;“Quite a few countries have been hanging back and will only reveal their preference to the general council chair at this stage,” said John Weekes, a former Canadian WTO ambassador who is now senior policy adviser at the international law firm Sidley Austin Brown &amp; Wood in Geneva. “There may well be some who support one candidate in one round of selection and another in the next one.” "&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Tom Wright reports in the &lt;i&gt;International Herald Tribune&lt;/i&gt;, that &lt;a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/03/31/business/wto.html"&gt;"For WTO members, it's 'confession' time"&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Countries are saying little for now, but most are expected to broadly back candidates from their own regions in the first round...

As candidates drop out, things could get more complex, said Sergio Marchi, a former Canadian trade minister and chairman of the WTO General Council in 2002. "Some candidates may be short of votes today, but on a subsequent ballot be more acceptable," he said...

Next week, the ambassadors are supposed to winnow out one candidate, who should in theory gracefully bow out, and this process is meant to continue until a winner emerges before May 31.

In case no consensus is reached by then, the organization has put in place a voting system to ensure that there is no repeat of last time. But it has not yet been decided how to weight the voting. Industrialized countries are uncomfortable about a one-ballot-per-member system, in which they would be outnumbered by developing countries, Marchi said."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Member countries could have voted last time, it was discussed.

During the consultations, Amina Mohamed will likely be polling delegations on their first and second choices. Keep an eye on the second choices. As candidates drop out, their supporters have to go somewhere. In 1999, Mike Moore of New Zealand was in last place in mid-January, but was one of the two finishers in July.

Chakravarthi Raghavan describes the January results (&lt;a href="http://www.sunsonline.org/trade/process/followup/1998/01220198.htm"&gt;"Trade: Another term for Ruggiero?"&lt;/a&gt; ): &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The new head count made public in press briefings by the WTO, (and the detailed statement of Rossier that was made available to the members, but withheld from the media, unlike the earlier two reports by Celso Lafer and Rossier &lt;/i&gt;Celso Lafer and Rossier conducted the consultations - Ben&lt;i&gt;) brought out:

* the Thai Deputy Prime Minister, Supachai leading with 40 first preferences, followed by 23 for Abouyoub of Morocco, 15 for MacLaren of Canada and 13 for Mike Moore of New Zealand;

* on basis of second preferences, Moore edged forward to the top of the list with 26 votes, Supachai with 19, Abouyoub with eight and Maclaren with five.

* while the great majority were willing to join the consensus whatever the final choice, a "not negligible number" said they would not be in a position to join automatically in a consensus if it formed around a candidate other than those for whom they have indicated a first or second preference.

Of the 133 members, 28 (12 with offices in Geneva, and others outside) did not respond to contacts by Rossier."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;At &lt;i&gt;Reuters India&lt;/i&gt;, Robert Evans (&lt;a href="http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp;:424c3f7e:d3c8b75b328401e?type=businessNews&amp;localeKey=en_IN&amp;amp;storyID=8050891"&gt;"Haunted WTO aims to name new leader by end of May"&lt;/a&gt; ) briefly describes the process: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"...three envoys will begin consulting the 148 WTO member countries on which of four candidates they would prefer as the next director general.

The leader of the team, Kenya's ambassador Amina Mohamed who chairs the WTO's ruling General Council, told delegations on Thursday that the three aim to find a consensus around one figure in the hope of having him approved by the end of May..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;and speculates about a Lamy for Wolfowitz deal:

&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The United States -- which like all other WTO members could block any candidate by refusing consensus -- has yet to indicate which of the four it will support.

This has led to speculation in some capitals -- but muted in Geneva where the changing dynamics of the 10-year-old WTO are better understood -- that Washington and Brussels may have done a deal involving the WTO and the World Bank.

The speculation intensified on Wednesday when the EU gave the green light for controversial U.S. nominee Paul Wolfowitz to take over as head of the World Bank, sparking suggestions that Lamy would now get U.S. support for the WTO.

But diplomats in Geneva said that even if the United States did back the Frenchman, a socialist committed to a liberalised global trading system, that was far from meaning he was certain to get the job.

Some envoys suggest that any such railroading by the two top trading powers would lead developing countries, now better organised to promote their own interests than some years ago, to dig in their heels and insist on one of their candidates."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;P.S. (April 1) Add these two AP stories (via &lt;i&gt;BusinessWeek&lt;/i&gt;): &lt;a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D896GBBG0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down"&gt;"WTO leadership race enters final stretch"&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D896GBJ80.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down"&gt;"Bios of WTO leadership candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.</content>
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<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;The Making of the WTO Director-General, 2005, #3&lt;/b&gt;

With the WTO Director-General (DG) selection process about to move into a new, "consultation and consensus phase", its time to pull together the posts of the last few months. This post updates a February 15 collection of links on the WTO DG selection process: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110784214273397536"&gt;"The Making of the WTO Director-General, 2005, #2"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;What does it matter&lt;/u&gt;

I'll accumulate "So what, why does this race matter?" posts here. Why does free trade matter? Why does the WTO matter to free trade? Why does the DG matter to the WTO? What about the General Council Chair?

The WTO is a "member-driven" organization, and, according to John Jackson, member of a recent commission on the future of the WTO, the DG position is institutionally weak: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111172109286349146"&gt;"The Director-General in a Member Driven WTO"&lt;/a&gt;.

What does the WTO Director-General do? Here's Candidate Pascal Lamy's articulate explanation: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110724104819331639"&gt;"What does the Director-General of the WTO do?"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;How are Directors-General chosen?&lt;/u&gt;

This post links to the WTO DG selection rules, and to a newspaper article providing a summary description of the process: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110654655479310038"&gt;"The Rules for Choosing a Director-General of the WTO"&lt;/a&gt;.

Miles Kahler critiques the methods used to choose leaders at the World Bank, IMF, and the WTO in the Institute for International Economics book, &lt;a href="http://216.134.221.13/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Product_Code=339"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. The chapters can be read online (but cannot be downloaded). I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;.

There have been two WTO DG contests before this one. Renato Ruggiero was selected as the first WTO DG in 1995: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110871402571075105"&gt;"How Renato Ruggiero Became the First Director General of the WTO"&lt;/a&gt;.

A Claude Barfield &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt; column, arguing that a WTO DG should have considerable political stature (selected from among former heads-of-state), was the subject of this post: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110842102865486976"&gt;"What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;Early Maneuvering&lt;/u&gt;

Nominations had to be made by December 31. But the race began before then. Who might have been in? Why did some drop out while other stayed in?

Early on, Jagdish Bhagwati suggested, in the Jan/Feb 2004 &lt;i&gt;Foreign Affairs&lt;/i&gt;, that the South African Trade Minister Alex Erwin was considered a leading contender. Bhagwati's article was titled : &lt;a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040101faessay83106/jagdish-n-bhagwati/don-t-cry-for-canc-n.html"&gt;"Don't Cry for Cancún"&lt;/a&gt;. "...Alec Erwin, South Africa's trade minister and a favorite to become the next director-general of the WTO..." This was &lt;a href="http://www.tralac.org/scripts/content.php?id=2373"&gt;quickly denied&lt;/a&gt;.

A lot of people thought about running for DG: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110620410572981590"&gt;"People who might have run for WTO Director-General, but did not"&lt;/a&gt;. In October, Brazilian and Uruguayan representatives met in Montevideo, without reaching joint agreement on a Latin American candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110620422860461123"&gt;"Why are there two Latin Americans in the WTO race?"&lt;/a&gt;. In December, Kenyan Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi almost entered the race: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110542400560707059"&gt;"There was another candidate"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;And then there were four&lt;/u&gt;

When the sun came up on January 1, there were four candidates. Felipe Seixas Corrêa of Brazil, Carlos Pérez del Castillo of Uruguay, Pascal Lamy of France, and Jaya Krishna Cuttaree of Mauritius. Who are these men? What strengths and weaknesses do they bring to this office?

This Jan 2 survey post linked to pages with biographical information on each candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110465471209183559"&gt;"Race for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;. The &lt;i&gt;Economist&lt;/i&gt; also surveyed the four candidates on January 7: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110514534871717492"&gt;"The Race for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;.

Here is a report of an interview with Mauritius Foreign Minister Jayakrishna Cuttaree: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110611114075743430"&gt;"Jayakrishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt;. Here is a post on a &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt; column that discussed Pascal Lamy: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110550661729403820"&gt;"The pros and cons of Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;.

Alan Oxley, former Australian Ambassador to the GATT explains: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110611044830814105"&gt;"What's Wrong With Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. Peter Gallagher, an Australian trade consultant, discussed Pérez del Castillo and Lamy: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110629090793665535"&gt;"Advice on who to pick as the next WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;. Both Oxley's column and Gallagher's post offer much more.

Michael C. Boyer, James G. Forsyth, Jai Singh survey the four candidates, and their chances, in the February 2005 issue of &lt;i&gt;Foreign Policy&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2776.php?PHPSESSID=5e9548d7ace88078f6eb4140abd3836b"&gt;"Who Gets to Run the WTO?"&lt;/a&gt;. Very good. I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;. Here's a February 19 survey of the four candidates from the &lt;i&gt;International Herald Tribune&lt;/i&gt;: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111018314539254748"&gt;"The WTO Director-General Race Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;The race itself&lt;/u&gt;

How do you campaign to be Director-General of the WTO? Mike Moore, a former Prime Minister of New Zealand, was DG from 1999 to 2002. He described his race for DG in his 2003 book on the WTO, &lt;i&gt;A World Without Walls&lt;/i&gt;. This post has an extract from the book, describing the race: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110636460804366550"&gt;"What's it like to run for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;.

The selection rules call for the presentation of the candidates to the General Council soon after the nominations end. In 2005, this presentation took place on Wednesday, January 26: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110647075386601675"&gt;"This Wednesday’s WTO General Council meeting"&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110621007045955024"&gt;"The next step in the WTO race"&lt;/a&gt;. A group of NGOs took advantage of the General Council meeting to schedule its own "public hearing" with the candidates on the evening of January 26: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110637747185309402"&gt;"Public Hearing for WTO Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;. And another post: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110670920479670976"&gt;"Meet the WTO Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.

Once the presentations were completed, the texts were posted to the WTO website, and there was a spate of stories: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110675994320359518"&gt;"WTO DG Candidates Address the General Council"&lt;/a&gt;. In a first, three of the candidates answered questions at an NGO sponsored "public hearing" on January 26. Here is a transcript: &lt;a href="http://www.tradeobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=48511"&gt;"Minutes of Civil Society Hearing for WTO Director-General Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;. The NGO "public hearing" was a new element in a WTO DG race; the article highlighted in this post points to it as an example of the increasing influence of NGOs: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110892239990960126"&gt;"The NGOs' New Influence"&lt;/a&gt;.

The candidates have been running hard. Brazilian Felipe Seixas Corrêa traveled to South Africa – another G-20 member: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110550852945086397"&gt;"The Brazilian visits South Africa"&lt;/a&gt;. South African news reports suggested that South Africa was torn between its ties with Brazil and its connections with other African countries. Its choice is described in the post &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110667124913273528"&gt;"Seixas Corrêa, or Cuttaree?"&lt;/a&gt;. In early March, he took his campaign to Washington: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111051769861730265"&gt;"Seixas Corrêa Visits Washington"&lt;/a&gt;. In late March, China endorsed him: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111159329576641432"&gt;"China Endorses Seixas Correa"&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;i&gt;Newsweek&lt;/i&gt; interviewed Pascal Lamy in late January: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110707188533023763"&gt;"&lt;i&gt;Newsweek&lt;/i&gt; Interviews Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. Here's another interview from the &lt;i&gt;Financial Express&lt;/i&gt;: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111016945371759429"&gt;"Interview with Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. Here is a February article on Lamy based on German sources: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110765421367086930"&gt;"Does Pascal Lamy have a good chance?"&lt;/a&gt;. In February, Brazil became indignant about Lamy remarks about the public international public good nature of rain forests: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110947266045829912"&gt;"The Brazilians Are Not Happy With Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. In late-February, Lamy took his campaign to India: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110937302129666249"&gt;"Pascal Lamy Turns Up In India"&lt;/a&gt;. In March there was a strange story about Nigerian support for Lamy &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111034171743573848"&gt;"Nigeria's Position on the WTO Director-General Race"&lt;/a&gt;.

In mid-March, the Bush Administration proposed Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz as the U.S. candidate for the next President of the World Bank. From that point on, there was persistent speculation about a deal between the U.S. and Europe: the U.S. would support Pascal Lamy in exchange for European support for Wolfowitz at the World Bank: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111104677402343225"&gt;"Wolfowitz for Lamy?"&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111163615487362970"&gt;"Persistent speculation on Lamy for Wolfowitz deal"&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111206584624795328"&gt;"Wolfowitz/Lamy Gossip"&lt;/a&gt;. The blog &lt;a href="http://www.worldbankpresident.org/"&gt;"World Bank President"&lt;/a&gt; has been covering the World Bank race. It's a potentially useful reference on the inter-relationship between the two races.

Early on, Uruguayan Pérez del Castillo traveled to Australia to meet with the trade minister there: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110533675312008895"&gt;"What will Australia do?”&lt;/a&gt;. In early February, the Australians endrosed him. Stories about that time tied Australia's selection decision (which was said to be between Pérez del Castillo and EU candidate Lamy) to recent EU decisions on wheat subsidies &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110706123503730488"&gt;"Which Candidate Will the Australian's Choose?"&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110759109401484670"&gt;"The Australians Opt for Pérez del Castillo"&lt;/a&gt;. This post links to a set of stories on Pérez del Castillo's claims about the division of Latin American support between himself and Seixas Corrêa: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110765392876319981"&gt;"Latins for Pérez del Castillo"&lt;/a&gt;. In mid-February Pérez del Castillo campaigned in Washington: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111197386562618351"&gt;"Perez del Castillo in Washington in February"&lt;/a&gt;, and in mid-March, in Brussels: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111104420725243256"&gt;"Pérez del Castillo goes to Brussels"&lt;/a&gt;. In late March, he was endorsed by New Zealand: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111206930933551139"&gt;"New Zealand Endorses Perez del Castillo"&lt;/a&gt;. Pérez del Castillo was nominated by a moderate government; in the Spring, a government of the left came to power. Would it continue to support him: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#110971961796144497"&gt;"Will Uruguay's New Socialist Government Continue to Back Pérez del Castillo?"&lt;/a&gt;?

Mauritius Foreign and Trade Minister Jaya Krishna Cuttaree sought support among the Indian diaspora: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110663700162057839"&gt;"Cuttaree plays the ethnic card"&lt;/a&gt;. The Cuttaree campaign has a web site: &lt;a href="http://www.jcuttaree.mu/"&gt;"Jaya Krishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt; (I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;). Cuttaree got the endorsement of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC): &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#110990890039674177"&gt;"Endorsements for Jaya Krishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt;. In early March, Cuttaree was in Brussels: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111051687889959569"&gt;"Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Visits Brussels"&lt;/a&gt;. In mid-March he attended the G-20 developing country meetings in New Delhi (&lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111104749631913145"&gt;"Cuttaree goes to New Delhi"&lt;/a&gt;), where he thought he found Indian support: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111216049338134792"&gt;"Cuttaree and India"&lt;/a&gt;. However, this later story from Mauritian sources expresses frustration over India's failure to back him: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111171907862544325"&gt;"India, Mauritius, and the WTO Director-General contest"&lt;/a&gt;. Here is an early post linking to, and quoting from, an Indian column surveying the candidate-set from the Indian point-of-view: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110775812550177361"&gt;"An Indian View of the WTO-DG Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;The Choice&lt;/u&gt;

At the end of March, start of April, the selection process changed. Candidates were no longer just making themselves known, now the General Council would begin a process of consultation, meant to lead to consensus around a single candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111163931525604852"&gt;"Change of Pace Coming in the WTO Director-General Race"&lt;/a&gt;.

On March 30, on the eve of this process, the odds on the candidates were available from the bookmaker, Ladbrokes: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111219679162099350"&gt;"Here are the odds on the WTO DG candidates:"&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;u&gt;The Transition&lt;/u&gt;

What is involved in settling in to the office? Mike Moore of New Zealand, was selected for DG in 1999. His book on the WTO, &lt;i&gt;A World Without Walls&lt;/i&gt;, sheds light on some of the problems he faced: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110902013763800150"&gt;"You Win the WTO DG Race. What Do You Do First?"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;i&gt;Last updated March 30, 2005&lt;/i&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111219679162099350" rel="service.edit" title="Here are the odds on the WTO DG candidates:" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-30T06:33:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-30T16:14:31Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-30T15:33:11Z</created>
<link href="#111219679162099350" rel="alternate" title="Here are the odds on the WTO DG candidates:" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Here are the odds on the WTO DG candidates:</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Here are the odds on the WTO DG candidates:&lt;/b&gt;

For what its worth, from the bookmaker Ladbrokes (via this March 30 story in &lt;i&gt;Bloomberg.com&lt;/i&gt; - &lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&amp;sid=ae.549snnYY8&amp;amp;refer=latin_america"&gt;"Uruguay's Castillo Is Top Contender for WTO Job, Ladbrokes Says"&lt;/a&gt; ): &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;" ``Castillo looks like the compromise candidate, but I expect the odds on Lamy to shorten,'' said Warren Lush, a spokesman for Ladbrokes in London. ``We're expecting to take some more money soon, but they're the only two to have had much backing so far.''

Four candidates are competing for the four-year job that starts Sept. 1. Perez del Castillo, 60, a former ambassador to the WTO, is quoted at 5/4 odds, meaning a $5 wager would yield a profit of $4. Lamy's odds are 5/2, with Brazilian ambassador Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa and Mauritian Foreign Minister Jaya Cuttaree both at 4/1. .."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;The story also notes that the WTO ambassadors (the General Council) "meet tomorrow in Geneva to discuss the selection process."</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111216049338134792" rel="service.edit" title="Cuttaree and India" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-29T20:53:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-30T05:54:25Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-30T05:28:13Z</created>
<link href="#111216049338134792" rel="alternate" title="Cuttaree and India" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111216049338134792</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Cuttaree and India</title>
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<b>Cuttaree and India</b>

Mauritian WTO candidate, Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, has angled for India's backing, as a representative of another developing country, as a citizen of nearby country with economic connections to India, and on the grounds of ethnic ties (<a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110663700162057839">"Cuttaree plays the ethnic card"</a>).

He was present at the G-20 meeting of developing countries in New Delhi in mid-March, where he lobbied for support (<i>The Financial Express</i>, March 19, <a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=85592">"Race for WTO D-G post hots up"</a> ) <ul>
<i>"NEW DELHI, MARCH 18: Competition for the post of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) director general is intensifying with Mauritius claiming India’s support for the coveted chair. Speaking to mediapersons on the sidelines of the G-20 ministerial meeting in New Delhi on Friday, Mauritian candidate Jayen Cuttaree said that top leaders of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) have promised to support his candidature.

Commerce ministry officials, however, said that India was yet undecided on whether it should support Mauritius or Brazil. “We want to support Mauritius as we are politically close. At the same time we are also keen on Brazil as it has emerged as a sharp negotiator forwarding the cause of developing countries,” an official said.

Former EU trade commissioner Pascal Lamy, who is the EU candidate for the DG’s post, too, was in New Delhi last month to lobby for India’s support. Giving his arguement on why developing countries should support him, Mr Cuttaree said that there was an increasing feeling among developing countries that their concerns have not been taken on board at the WTO.

At the same time, developed countries too were showing political will to take care of devepment issues along with trade, he said. “My job would be to act as a bridge between developed and developing countries,” he said.

On the issue of attempts made by some developed countries to divide developing countries on the basis of their level of developement, the Mauritian minister said that he did not believe in such categorisation. “If India and China become stronger it is good for us as they will pull other developing countries with them,” he said."</i>
</ul>(<i>l'express.mu</i> of Mauritius, March 22, <a href="http://www.blogger.com/">"Successful Lobbying for WTO Directorship"</a>): <ul>
<i>Jayen Cuttaree’s campaign to become the new director of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) seems to be going well. Last week, he paid a visit to the president of the Indian Congress Party, Sonia Gandhi, who gave the guarantee that she supports his application for the post. In about a week, the WTO general council will start its first consultations with the member states. Jayen Cuttaree appears to be among the favourites though former EU commissioner Pascal Lamy is a serious contender."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111206930933551139" rel="service.edit" title="New Zealand Endorses Perez del Castillo" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-03-28T22:53:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T07:53:26Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-29T04:08:29Z</created>
<link href="#111206930933551139" rel="alternate" title="New Zealand Endorses Perez del Castillo" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">New Zealand Endorses Perez del Castillo</title>
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<b>New Zealand Endorses Perez del Castillo</b>

tvnz.co.nz reports (March 29) that New Zealand has endorsed Uruguayan Carlos Perez del Castillo for WTO Director-General: <a href="http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_rural_story_skin/481956?format=html">" NZ backs Castillo for WTO post"</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111172109286349146" rel="service.edit" title="The Director-General in a Member Driven WTO" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-28T22:44:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T07:44:31Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-25T03:24:52Z</created>
<link href="#111172109286349146" rel="alternate" title="The Director-General in a Member Driven WTO" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111172109286349146</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Director-General in a Member Driven WTO</title>
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<b>The Director-General in a Member Driven WTO</b>

The WTO is a member driven organization - decision making authority is vested in its General Council of national ambassadors, and is jealously guarded. The Director-General position is not clearly defined in the treaties setting up the WTO, and is not, institutionally, very powerful.

The relationship between the Director-General and the General Council came up in a recent American Enterprise Institute discussion on the WTO: <ul>
<i>"WTO Director-General Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi's three-year term will be coming to an end this year amid serious institutional structure problems, according to the board. With a new director-general to be chosen by the members of the WTO in the coming months, the board asserts that it is important and timely to address these challenges.

"The way the system treats its officials, its secretariat, and its director-general is nothing short of disgraceful," Jackson </i>[John Jackson, a Georgetown University law professor]<i> said.

Jackson explained that the mantra of the organization, that it is "member-driven," tends to be an excuse for ambassadors to "flex their power muscles and to prevent adequate operation of the secretariat and the director-general." "</i>
</ul>
<a href="http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050323-012937-4692r.htm">Future challenges for WTO"</a> (UPI via the <i>Washington Times)</i>

The panel's topic was the January <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/10anniv_e/10anniv_e.htm#future">"Sutherland Report"</a> on the future of the WTO. Jackson was one of the co-authors of the report. The report devotes a chapter to the role of the Director-General and the Secretariat. Here are some extracts: <ul>
<i>"...for some years, the mutual confidence between delegations and WTO staff has been less obvious than in the past...The deeper problem appears to be a view that, in a "Member-driven organization", the Secretariat's role must be solely one of support, not of initiative or even of institutional defense of the WTO system...</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>The role of the Director-General is not defined in the Marrakesh Agreemetn. Article VI(2) calls on the Ministerial Conference to appoint the Director-General and "adopt regulations setting out powers, duties, conditions of service and term of office...". aside from determining conditiosn of service, this mandate has never been fulfullied...</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>There is the question of the Director-General's duty to manage the Secretariat. In recent years, there has been a tendency towards micro-management by Members, particularly through the Budget Committee..."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111206584624795328" rel="service.edit" title="Wolfowitz/Lamy Gossip" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-28T21:57:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T15:47:31Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-29T03:10:46Z</created>
<link href="#111206584624795328" rel="alternate" title="Wolfowitz/Lamy Gossip" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111206584624795328</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Wolfowitz/Lamy Gossip</title>
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<b>Wolfowitz/Lamy Gossip</b>

Speculation about a Wolfowitz for Lamy trade abounds: Here's a UPI item via the March 28 <i>Washington Times</i> <a href="http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050328-113159-6660r.htm">"UPI Hears..."</a>
<ul>
<i>"...The only person outside his immediate Washington circle with whom Bush shared his plan to appoint Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz to run the World Bank was his closest ally, Tony Blair. Bush consulted Blair a month before the Wolfowitz name first surfaced -- but Blair kept the secret from his own Cabinet... Above all it has infuriated Gordon Brown, the powerful Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair's most jealous and most dangerous rival. Brown... takes the way Blair kept Bush's little secret as a personal slight... Brown also thinks Blair was very dumb not to hold out for a big fat favor in exchange for his support for Wolfowitz. After all, the French and Germans have told Bush that they will swallow Wolfowitz -- but only if Bush accepts former European Union trade commissioner Pascal Lamy as the next head of the World Trade Organization. Funny, but Bush doesn't yet seem to have shared the news of this bargain with his own Cabinet, nor with Congress. Will the deal hold?"</i>
</ul>Developing countries are a majority of WTO nations, they have a lot at stake in trade negotiations, they think fairness requires that the Director-General be from a developed country, and they think they were denied their opportunity in 1999. A developing country coalition could prevent consensus around a given candidate.

I'd guess that many developing countries would react badly to an apparent backroom North Atlantic deal, with U.S. support for Pascal Lamy exchanged for European support for Wolfowitz.

In 1998-1999, a deadlock between developed and developing country candidates for Director-General led to a prolonged contest, a failure to reach consensus around any candidate, and a lot of anger. The preoccupation with the race interfered with the preparations for the meeting of WTO member country trade ministers in Seattle, and contributed to the failure of those meetings. The start of the current round of trade negotiations was delayed for two years.

Another bad outcome may be possible if the speculation about a Wolfowitz/Lamy deal turns out to be right. <a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_03_01_archive.html#111163615487362970">I'm not sure the speculation is right.</a> But, if Pascal Lamy is going to win, and his tenure is going to be productive, it will help if he can win in a way that minimizes the antagonism of developing countries. I don't think that road runs through Washington first. If there is a deal, it would help if implementation were contingent on Lamy's demonstrated ability to attract significant developing country support.

<i>Minor revisions 3-29-05</i>
</div>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111197386562618351" rel="service.edit" title="Perez del Castillo in Washington in February" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-03-28T16:37:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T07:52:40Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-28T01:37:45Z</created>
<link href="#111197386562618351" rel="alternate" title="Perez del Castillo in Washington in February" type="text/html"/>
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<b>Perez del Castillo in Washington in February</b>

I didn't catch it at the time, but Uruguayan candidate for WTO Director-General, Carlos Perez del Castillo campaigned in Washington in February: <a href="http://www.iadialog.org/summaries/feb05/benefits.asp">"Benefits of Market Access Should Guide Trade Negotiators in 2005, Not Specifics, Top Trade Official Says"</a>
</div>
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</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111170156604061306" rel="service.edit" title="Old Testament Outsourcing" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-26T15:01:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T07:56:18Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-24T21:59:26Z</created>
<link href="#111170156604061306" rel="alternate" title="Old Testament Outsourcing" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111170156604061306</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Old Testament Outsourcing</title>
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<b>Old Testament Outsourcing</b>

<a href="http://www.fee.org/vnews.php?nid=6287">"Moses and Outsourcing"</a> via <a href="http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/mainblog/2005/03/a_case_study_of.html">"Newmark's Door"</a> and ultimately <a href="http://faculty.philau.edu/KouliavtsevM/">Mikhail S. Kouliavtsev</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111171907862544325" rel="service.edit" title="India, Mauritius, and the WTO Director-General contest" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-26T14:59:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-26T23:59:09Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-25T02:51:18Z</created>
<link href="#111171907862544325" rel="alternate" title="India, Mauritius, and the WTO Director-General contest" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111171907862544325</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">India, Mauritius, and the WTO Director-General contest</title>
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<b>India, <a href="http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mp.html">Mauritius</a>, and the WTO Director-General contest</b>

Mauritian's are perplexed about India's failure to endorse <a href="http://www.jcuttaree.mu/">Mauritian Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Jaya Krishna Cuttaree</a> for the WTO Director-General position.

It comes out in this March 24 Webindia123.com report on a visit by the Indian Prime Minister to Mauritius: <a href="http://www.webindia123.com/news/showdetails.asp?id=74669&amp;n_date=20050324&amp;cat=business">"Agreement to expand air services during PM's visit to Mauritius"</a> In among the descriptions of various economic agreements under discussion during the visit, there's this
<ul>
<i>"Mauritius, however, is peeved at India cold-shouldering its candidature for the WTO Director General's post. Despite its close political links and common kinship and its open support to India at all international fora, New Delhi has not given any commitment so far to the candidature of its Foreign Minister Jaya Krishna Cuttaree for the top WTO post. "We have always vociferously supported India, by name," lamented the official."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111163931525604852" rel="service.edit" title="Change of Pace Coming in the WTO Director-General Race" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-23T19:38:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-24T06:28:57Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-24T04:41:55Z</created>
<link href="#111163931525604852" rel="alternate" title="Change of Pace Coming in the WTO Director-General Race" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111163931525604852</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Change of Pace Coming in the WTO Director-General Race</title>
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<b>Change of Pace Coming in the WTO Director-General Race</b>

The pace of the WTO Director-General selection process should change next week.

The WTO adopted procedures for selecting Directors-General in 2002: <a href="http://docsonline.wto.org/DDFDocuments/t/WT/L/509.doc">"Procedures For The Appointment of Directors-General"</a>.

Following the procedures, the candidates were nominated in December, given an opportunity to make a presentation to the WTO General Council in January, and spent the last two months campaigning for office.

The final decision has to be made three months before the term of the current Director-General ends. Since his term ends at the end of August, the decision has to be made by the end of May.

During the last two months, the procedures require consultations among the members of the General Council (the Council of the ambassadors to the WTO), facilitated by the Council's Chair (and selected assistants), aimed at bringing about a consensus decision in favor of one of the candidates.

The procedures describe how it should work: <ul>
<i>"17. The Chair, with the assistance of the facilitators, shall consult all Members, including non-resident Members, in order to assess their preferences and the breadth of support for each candidate. The ultimate aim of the consultation process shall be to identify the candidate around whom consensus can be built. In order to do this, it may be necessary to conduct successive consultations to identify the candidate or candidates least likely to attract such a consensus.

18. The outcome of the consultations shall be reported to the membership at each stage. It is understood that the candidate or candidates least likely to attract consensus shall withdraw. The number of candidates expected to withdraw at each stage shall be determined according to the initial number of candidates, and made known in advance. This process shall be repeated in successive stages on the basis of a revised slate of candidates each time, with the aim of establishing consensus around one candidate.

19. At the end of the final stage of the consultative process, the Chair, with the support of the facilitators, shall submit the name of the candidate most likely to attract consensus and recommend his or her appointment by the General Council."</i>
</ul>
<p>We'll see. This is delicate work for the Chair. The Council has to be brought to settle on one of the four candidates by consensus. The Chair can't be unduly assertive in eliciting this choice, and can't be seen as pushing any candidate. </p>
<p>The last time the WTO tried this (under somewhat different procedures) things went wildly awry. The Council failed to reach a consensus, split the term between two candidates, angered many members, and contributed to the wreck of the WTO Ministers' meeting in Seattle.</p>
<p>The winnowing process begins next week.

The WTO web page on the race is here: <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/dg_selection_process_e.htm">"WTO Director-General selection process"</a>. </p>
</div>
</content>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111163615487362970" rel="service.edit" title="Persistent speculation on Lamy for Wolfowitz deal" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-23T18:49:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-29T07:49:10Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-24T03:49:14Z</created>
<link href="#111163615487362970" rel="alternate" title="Persistent speculation on Lamy for Wolfowitz deal" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111163615487362970</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Persistent speculation on Lamy for Wolfowitz deal</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Persistent speculation on Lamy for Wolfowitz deal&lt;/b&gt;

Since the Bush Administration selected Paul Wolfowitz as its choice for the President of the World Bank, there has been persistent speculation that the Administration would support Pascal Lamy as Director-General of the World Bank in exchange for European support for Wolfowitz.

Here are a couple of stories that mention this in passing. Marie-Louise Moeller reports for SwissInfo, &lt;a href="http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&amp;sid=5621687"&gt;"EU seeks talks with Wolfowitz"&lt;/a&gt; and Aine Gallagher reports for Reuters, &lt;a href="http://xtramsn.co.nz/news/0,,11965-4225241,00.html"&gt;"Europe Buries Qualms Over Wolfowitz"&lt;/a&gt;.
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;""...The realpolitik of the situation is that in all likelihood Mr Wolfowitz will be appointed as chairman of the bank," Irish Finance Minister Brian Cowen told a news conference after a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels on Wednesday...

Others at the summit indicated there would be no objections to Wolfowitz's nomination, which comes at a time when Europe is seeking to heal rifts with the Bush administration and wants U.S. backing for former EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy's bid to head the World Trade Organisation..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;The Reuters story points to another potential tradeoff: &lt;a href="http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&amp;amp;storyID=7990147"&gt;"Few obstacles for Wolfowitz in World Bank campaign"&lt;/a&gt;.
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Many European officials are fuming privately, diplomatic sources say. The sources said European angst has remained unexpressed in large part because many countries have candidates in the running for top international posts.

Britain, Norway and the Netherlands are vying for the helm of the U.N. Development Program, which has an annual budget of nearly $3 billion. Meanwhile, the European Union has nominated former EU trade chief Pascal Lamy of France for the top job at the World Trade Organization, which comes open in August."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;There has been a fair amount of speculation that the U.S. may back Pascal Lamy. Much of it has centered around the close working relationship Lamy had with former US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Zoellick. More recently a possible Wolfowitz/Lamy exchange has been bruited. Lamy is certainly extremely capable, and has the necessary WTO background.

But here are some counterarguments:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;The articles cited above suggest that many European states will already back Wolfowitz. Unless this is due to US commitments already privately made, to back Lamy as a quid pro quo, it doesn't sound like the US will have to back Lamy to get Wolfowitz.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Lamy and Zoellick worked well together. But Zoellick isn't USTR anymore. As Deputy Secretary of State he has a much wider range of issues, and won't be the lead on US trade negotiations.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Lamy is a French Socialist. There may be ideological objections within the Administration.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;An apparent Lamy for Wolfowitz exchange, placing a European as Director-General of the WTO, would create enormous antagonism among the developing countries that have been pressing more and more insistently for a leadership position at the WTO.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;The US has traditionally objected to WTO Directors-General from large European nations. Under the GATT, most DGs were from smaller European states. In the 1994 selection campaign, the US backed Mexican President Carlos Salinas, and did not agree to the selection of an Italian candidate until there was no alternative - and even then, not readily. There were no European candidates in 1998-99.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111159329576641432" rel="service.edit" title="China endorses Seixas Correa" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-23T06:54:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-24T03:29:29Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-23T15:54:55Z</created>
<link href="#111159329576641432" rel="alternate" title="China endorses Seixas Correa" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111159329576641432</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">China endorses Seixas Correa</title>
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<b>China Endorses Seixas Correa</b>

Taiwan's <i>The China Post</i> reports that China has endorsed Brazilian Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa in the WTO Director-General race: <a href="http://www.chinapost.com.tw/i_latestdetail.asp?id=27173">"China supports Brazilian candidate to lead WTO? "</a> <ul>
<i>" China on Wednesday threw its support behind Brazil's candidate to lead the World Trade Organization....

"China supports Brazil's ambassador to the World Trade Organization Luiz Felipe Seixas Correa to run for the post of WTO's director-general," the government's Xinhua News Agency said, citing Commerce Ministry spokesman Chong Quan."</i>
</ul>Here's a report from <i>Xinhuanet</i>, <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-03/23/content_2734824.htm">"China supports Brazilian candidate to run for the WTO chief"</a> <ul>
<i>"...It is the first time that China expresses its support to a candidate for WTO director-general.

According to Chong, China has informed the decision when Commerce Minister Bo Xilai's met with visiting Brazilian Vice Foreign Minister Clodovaldo Hugueney Monday in Beijing..."</i>
</ul>and the Associated Press, via <i>BusinessWeek</i>, <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D890KR300.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down">"China supports Brazilian candidate for WTO"</a>.

<i>Revised March 23, 2005</i>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111104749631913145" rel="service.edit" title="Cuttaree goes to New Delhi" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-16T23:18:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-17T08:26:10Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-17T08:18:16Z</created>
<link href="#111104749631913145" rel="alternate" title="Cuttaree goes to New Delhi" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111104749631913145</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Cuttaree goes to New Delhi</title>
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Cuttaree goes to New Delhi</b>

Jaya Krishna Cuttaree took his campaign for WTO Director-General to New Delhi this week: <a href="http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&amp;id=86078">WTO offers best protection for developing countries: Mauritius FM"</a>

He talked about the importance of multilateral trade negotiations to developing countries: <ul>
<i>"Mauritius says only a rule-based trading system like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would offer the best protection to the rights of developing and poor countries.

Mauritius Foreign Affairs Minister Jaya Krishna Cuttaree said trade liberatlisation with sustainable development in focus would be able to bridge the divide between the developed and the developing nations.

"The major players have the option of negotiating bilateral free trade areas and choose with whom they want to deepen integration. We do not have such options," said Cuttaree in an interview to ANI."</i>
</ul>India still hasn't chosen its candidate: <ul>
<i>"India has not so far opened its cards openly in favour of Mauritius in the world trading body. New Delhi is weighing the options of its cultural and political relations with Port Luis and economic advantages of supporting EU's former trade commissioner Pascal Lamy. Cuttaree however, is hopeful that New Delhi will go with Port Luis. "</i>
</ul>Cuttaree is campaigning hard: <ul>
<i>"Cuttaree, who arrived in New Delhi after a brief visit to Bangladesh to seek Dhaka's support to his candidature, is leaving to Colombo tomorrow."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111104677402343225" rel="service.edit" title="Wolfowitz for Lamy?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-16T23:06:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-17T08:12:25Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-17T08:06:14Z</created>
<link href="#111104677402343225" rel="alternate" title="Wolfowitz for Lamy?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111104677402343225</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Wolfowitz for Lamy?</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Wolfowitz for Lamy?&lt;/b&gt;

Bush wants to Paul Wolfowitz to be President of the World Bank. The Europeans are unenthusiastic, but one of the experts quoted in this Bloomberg story (&lt;a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&amp;sid=aH_quKfrb5Uw&amp;amp;refer=top_world_news"&gt;"Wolfowitz Nominated to Be Next World Bank President"&lt;/a&gt;) suggests the French may go along if the US accepts Pascal Lamy as head of the WTO. &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;" ``The French will accept the candidacy of Wolfowitz without enthusiasm,'' said Dominique Moisi, deputy director of the French Institute for International Relations in Paris. ``They will ask something in return,'' such as the appointment of Pascal Lamy at the head of the World trade Organization."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111104420725243256" rel="service.edit" title="Pérez del Castillo goes to Brussels" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-16T22:23:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-17T07:58:47Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-17T07:23:27Z</created>
<link href="#111104420725243256" rel="alternate" title="Pérez del Castillo goes to Brussels" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111104420725243256</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Pérez del Castillo goes to Brussels</title>
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<b>Pérez del Castillo goes to Brussels</b>

Uruguayan WTO Director-General candidate, Carlos Pérez del Castillo, was in Brussels Tuesday (3-15) addressing the European Parliament's Trade Committee.

The EU is committed to Pascal Lamy of France, but the Trade Committee has invited the other three candidates to state their cases.  This may matter because, during the consultation process by which the candidates are selected, second choices are often important.

The southern South American press service, MercoPress, reports:<a href="http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=5276">"WTO leadership candidate makes case to EU"</a>
<ul>
<i>"...He said the next WTO chief should be able to guide current world trade talks to get a deal that ‘‘reflects the interests of all members,’’ implying that former EU Trade Commissioner Lamy would not do so.

He added that the other two candidates — Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, the foreign affairs and trade minister of Mauritius, and Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa, Brazil’s ambassador to the WTO — did not have broad enough backing.

Pérez del Castillo said he would ensure poorer countries get more flexibility in delaying implementation of trade rules, which he said often did not take into account the needs of developing economies.
</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>Pérez del Castillo said last November the top job should go to either a Latin American or an African.

He said neither continent had been given a chance since the creation of the WTO a decade ago — or since its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, began in 1948.

He said he was in favor of ensuring a drop in tariffs and duties in all areas of trade, leaving no room for protected sectors like services or agriculture, which have been sensitive points of contention in the current trade round..."</i>
</ul>Here's another report from EUobserver.com: <a href="http://www.euobserver.com/?sid=19&amp;aid=18681">"MEPs to hear all WTO Candidates, despite backing Lamy"</a>.
<ul>
<i>"...The Uruguayan candidate urged the EU to "harness all efforts" to ensure a successful conclusion to Doha round - opened in 2001 - in Hong Kong this year, but warned that expectations should be lowered.

"I wouldn't call it a development round", he said...

If victorious, Mr Castillo said he would not carry out thorough reforms in the organization, which Mr Lamy criticized as being "medieval". "There are things the WTO can do and there are things the WTO cannot do and should not do", he stated, advocating instead for more work to be carried out in the Geneva headquarters instead of high-profile ministerial summits.

Drawing attention to the "need to improve the WTO's image before the public view in general", he assured that, if victorious, his door "will always be open" to NGOs..."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111103986812585989" rel="service.edit" title="Light blogging" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-16T21:09:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-17T06:11:08Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-17T06:11:08Z</created>
<link href="#111103986812585989" rel="alternate" title="Light blogging" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111103986812585989</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Light blogging</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Light blogging</b>

I apologize for the light posting recently.  A busy period at work won't leave much time for blogging for a few more days.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111051769861730265" rel="service.edit" title="Seixas Corrêa Visits Washington" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-10T20:08:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-11T07:16:37Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-11T05:08:18Z</created>
<link href="#111051769861730265" rel="alternate" title="Seixas Corrêa Visits Washington" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111051769861730265</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Seixas Corrêa Visits Washington</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Seixas Corrêa Visits Washington</b>

Brazil's representative to the WTO, and its candidate for WTO Director-General (DG), Luis Felipe de Seixas Corrêa, has been spending the week in Washington.

On Monday, he <a href="http://washingtontimes.com/world/20050308-094125-1655r.htm">met with the acting US Trade Representative, Peter Allgeier,</a> and expressed his confidence of ultimately getting US support: <ul>
<i>"A Brazilian diplomat says he is confident of U.S. support of his campaign to lead the World Trade Organization, although the Bush administration has yet to endorse a candidate.

Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa, Brazil's ambassador to the WTO, met on Monday with Peter Allgeier, the acting U.S. trade representative.

"I don't think that anyone can be elected to ... head the WTO without the will of the United States," Mr. Correa told Reuters news agency. "Obviously, if I did not think I could get the support, I would not be campaigning..." "</i>
</ul>He <a href="http://www.politinfo.com/articles/article_2005_03_8_3349.html">spoke to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce</a>, and the <a href="http://www.brazilcouncil.org/displaycontent.asp?keyword=HomeEvents&amp;NewsItemID=3240">Brazil-U.S. Business Council</a>, on Tuesday.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111051687889959569" rel="service.edit" title="Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Visits Brussels" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-10T19:54:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-11T07:11:46Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-11T04:54:38Z</created>
<link href="#111051687889959569" rel="alternate" title="Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Visits Brussels" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111051687889959569</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Visits Brussels</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Jaya Krishna Cuttaree Visits Brussels&lt;/b&gt;

Mauritian WTO Director-General (DG) candidate Jaya Krishna Cuttaree held a press conference during a visit to Brussels this week.

This has to be one of the best covered events of this WTO DG campaign. We have reports from Reuters (&lt;a href="http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&amp;localeKey=en_ZA&amp;amp;storyID=7866292"&gt;"Poor nations' WTO candidate says betrayed by Europe"&lt;/a&gt; ), Stefania Bianchi for Inter Press Service of Johannesburg via allAfrica.com ( &lt;a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200503100692.html"&gt;"Trade: Poor Countries' Man Makes a Strong Case"&lt;/a&gt; ), Agence France-Presse via &lt;i&gt;Tribune de Geneve&lt;/i&gt; (&lt;a href="http://www.tdg.ch/content/tghome/tgnews.detailcateg.YWZwLmNvbToyMDA1MDMxMDowNTAzMTAxMjQxMzkuaHUxd2huOHQ6MQ==.1.0.html"&gt;"Mauritian WTO candidate digs at EU rival"&lt;/a&gt;), and the Associated Press (&lt;a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D88O51700.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down"&gt;"Cuttaree says EU shouldn't vie for WTO post"&lt;/a&gt;),

Bianchi's report is the most comprehensive. Cuttaree discussed his platform: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries nominee to head the World Trade Organisation says he will fight for a "rule-based multilateral trading system" to protect the world's poorest countries if he assumes the role later this year.

Mauritian foreign affairs minister since December 2003, Cuttaree says he will push for a free trade system and also give the poorest countries a voice in global trade negotiations if he becomes director general of the Geneva-based trade body...

...Cuttaree says the WTO must have a "deliverable development dimension", and is strongly advocating a WTO agenda which provides for "operational special and differential treatment in favour of developing countries" to ensure that these countries make "meaningful gains" from trade liberalisation."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;and his surprise when the EU backed Pascal Lamy: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Cuttaree says it is unfortunate that the EU and the ACP group who enjoy a special trading relationship will be "pitted against each other" in the race for the top post.

"I was disappointed to learn that Lamy is also going for the post. It was a complete surprise to me. I always thought that the EU-ACP relationship was based on the strengths and weaknesses of each other and I expected the EU to support us in this. Although the EU has the power to control the WTO I don't think that this will help the Doha Development Round," he said."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;and campaign tactics: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"But Cuttaree has not ruled out alliances with fellow developing world candidates if the vote does not go his way.

"I have spoken to Latin American representatives and we all agree that if we want a leader from a developing country, then at a certain point we will have to form some developing country coalitions," he said."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Bianchi passes on speculation on which countries support which candidates: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The group of 79 ACP countries say they are overwhelmingly behind Cuttaree's candidacy...

But Cuttaree will face tough competition from the contenders from the developing world who each have their own supporters. Del Castillo is already reported to have won the support of Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, while Correa said earlier this month that he is confident he will win the all-important U.S. endorsement."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111035573687347774" rel="service.edit" title="Developing Nations Object to Immediate Supachai UNCTAD Appointment" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-08T23:08:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-09T08:12:55Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-09T08:08:56Z</created>
<link href="#111035573687347774" rel="alternate" title="Developing Nations Object to Immediate Supachai UNCTAD Appointment" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111035573687347774</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Developing Nations Object to Immediate Supachai UNCTAD Appointment</title>
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Developing Nations Object to Immediate Supachai UNCTAD Appointment</b>

Evelyn Leopold reports for Reuters that developing nations have raised concerns about the appointment of WTO Director General Supachai Panitchpakdi to head the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, when his WTO term ends: <a href="http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp;:422e9664:8fea8e8f5ad9f9c?type=businessNews&amp;localeKey=en_ZA&amp;storyID=7846653">"Developing states delay naming new head of UNCTAD"</a>
<ul>
<i>"Developing nations on Tuesday delayed the appointment of a Thai economist to head a United Nations trade agency, objecting to his background as director-general of the World Trade Organization, diplomats said.

The U.N. General Assembly was scheduled on Tuesday to approve Secretary-General Kofi Annan's nomination of Supachai Panitchpakdi, a banker and former Thai deputy prime minister, to lead the Geneva-based U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, known as UNCTAD.

But Jamaica, as head of the Group of 77 developing countries, which now has 133 members, asked for a month's delay so nations could further consult their respective governments.

"There are serious concerns that the person who has been proposed by the secretary-general is coming from the WTO, which has a culture totally different from UNCTAD, an organization to help developing nations," Algeria's U.N. ambassador, Abdallah Baali, told reporters..."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111035118154872272" rel="service.edit" title="How To Write A Better Paper For Class" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-08T21:53:01-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-09T06:53:01Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-09T06:53:01Z</created>
<link href="#111035118154872272" rel="alternate" title="How To Write A Better Paper For Class" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111035118154872272</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">How To Write A Better Paper For Class</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>How To Write A Better Paper For Class</b>

Brad DeLong's advice: <a href="http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2005-3_archives/000485.html">"Advice on Paper Writing"</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111034171743573848" rel="service.edit" title="Nigeria's Position on the WTO Director-General Race" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-08T20:30:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-09T05:32:23Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-09T04:15:17Z</created>
<link href="#111034171743573848" rel="alternate" title="Nigeria's Position on the WTO Director-General Race" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111034171743573848</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Nigeria's Position on the WTO Director-General Race</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Nigeria's Position on the WTO Director-General Race</b>

Here's an interesting story by Joseph Ushigiale, published in the Lagos daily, <a href="http://www.thisdayonline.com/">
<i>This Day</i>
</a>: <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200503080213.html">"WTO: Interest in Deputy D-G Slot Threatened"</a> (via <a href="http://allafrica.com/">
<i>allAfrica.com</i>
</a>).

In summary, Ushigiale says:

The Nigerians negotiated a deal with the French, to support Pascal Lamy for WTO Director General in exchange for the appointment of a Nigerian to one of the four Deputy Director General (DDG) positions.  On January 15, the Nigerian President sent a memo to his Commerce Minister approving the deal.

The Commerce Minister passed the approval on to the Ministry's Director of External Trade, Mr Y. F. Agah, on January 17. Mr Agah is then alleged to have delayed forwarding the approval for six weeks:
<ul>
<i>"...it took a presidential query on the seeming delay in conveying the presidential backing to provoke Agah into forwarding the directive to Geneva on March 1, 2005.

Agah is alleged to have delayed the presidential backing for self preservation purpose, as he is in direct line of benefitting from Nigeria's inability to clinch the deputy general position as a trade representative to the world body...

...Meanwhile, Agah has already received Mr President's approval to proceed to Geneva, as Nigeria's Trade Representative to the WTO, WIPO and UNCTAD with effect from April 1, 2005."</i>
</ul>During the delay, the story asserts, Lamy gained a lock on the WTO Director-General position. As a result, Nigeria is seen as having failed to follow through on the deal, and it's support is seen as "irrelevant." Some other African country may get the DDG position now.

I don't know enough about Nigerian politics to comment on the plausibility of this story.   I don't understand why Agah would benefit personally if a Nigerian failed to get the DDG position. 

This is the first news story I've seen referring to Lamy's inevitability. The first formal consultations with the membership <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres05_e/pr393_e.htm#procedures">are still several weeks away</a>.  

If I've read the story right, it implies that a <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/ddgs_e.htm">DDG position</a> currently in the hands of a Frenchman was to be given to a Nigerian in return for the DG support ("...a Nigerian Deputy will succeed the French national at the expiration of his tenure..."), but there is currently no French DDG. There is a Kenyan DDG.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111034232818849545" rel="service.edit" title="Where is Our New USTR?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-08T19:25:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-09T06:26:46Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-09T04:25:28Z</created>
<link href="#111034232818849545" rel="alternate" title="Where is Our New USTR?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111034232818849545</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Where is Our New USTR?</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Where Is Our New USTR&lt;/b&gt;

The &lt;a href="http://www.ustr.gov/"&gt;United States Trade Representative&lt;/a&gt; (USTR) is the chief U.S. trade negotiator.

Robert Zoellick filled the positon capably in Bush's first term, but has since moved to the State Department as Rice's deputy.

One of Zoellick's deputies, &lt;a href="http://www.ustr.gov/Who_We_Are/Bios/Ambassador_Peter_Allgeier.html"&gt;Peter Allgeier&lt;/a&gt;, was appointed as Acting USTR in mid-February. But "Acting" is not the same as "actual." The administration has known for many weeks that it would need to fill this position.

Gregg Robb (at MarketWatch) points to the delay, and the problems it may cause:
&lt;a href="http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4D89DB4E-0113-42BC-8759-BBD59A0530FF%7D&amp;siteid=google&amp;amp;dist=google"&gt;"Bush delays naming new top trade negotiator"&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The White House has yet to nominate a new U.S. Trade Representative since Robert Zoellick left the post last month to become deputy secretary of state, and analysts are beginning to debate how much harm is being caused by the delay.

At the moment, the consensus is that the slowness in naming the new top trade negotiator for the United States is a growing problem, but not a crisis.

"The absence of a USTR is hurting us and crippling us from moving both the multilateral and the bilateral agenda forward," said Nao Matsukata, former director of policy planning for USTR and now chair of Strategic International Business Practice at Hunton &amp;amp; Williams.

"It is critical for us to put a USTR in place to show we're serious about moving forward on the trade liberalization agenda," he said..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Sebastian Mallaby, in the &lt;i&gt;Washington Post,&lt;/i&gt; points out that the administration has also, so far, failed to come up with a credible candidate for the head of the World Bank: &lt;a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12640-2005Mar6.html?sub=AR"&gt;"Clueless On the World Bank"&lt;/a&gt;. And it's known for years that that appointment would be coming up. What is the status of administration thinking on the WTO Director General choice?</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111026635565622420" rel="service.edit" title="Bush Administration Challenge to Cotton Subsidies" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-07T22:19:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-08T08:21:07Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-08T07:19:15Z</created>
<link href="#111026635565622420" rel="alternate" title="Bush Administration Challenge to Cotton Subsidies" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111026635565622420</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Bush Administration Challenge to Cotton Subsidies</title>
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<b>Bush Administration Challenge to Cotton Subsidies</b>

The Bush Administration's February budget proposals included cuts in agricultural subsidies.

Dan Morgan reports on the Administration's challenge to cotton subsidies, in Tuesday's <i>Washington Post</i>: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15353-2005Mar7.html">An End to Days of High Cotton?"</a>.

Morgan notes that the challenge to cotton is a challenge to a "core GOP constituency": <ul>
<i>"A Bush administration proposal that would cut billions of dollars in subsidies to big cotton growers has struck at a core GOP constituency, setting off a battle in Republican congressional ranks that pits budget cutters and prairie-state populists against traditional agricultural interests...

...As part of its 2006 budget proposal, the Bush administration would trim benefits for growers of most staple crops, including wheat, corn and soybeans. But economists and officials say the hardest hit would be the big producers of cotton in Republican strongholds of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. Large-scale operators in California and Arizona would also be affected..."</i>
</ul>Later he discusses the size of the subsidies, and their distribution among recipients: <ul>
<i>"... Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, former governor of the major farm state of Nebraska, said one reason the administration came to believe that subsidies should be limited is that "very large sums of money were going to a very few."

Two-thirds of the nation's 2.1 million farmers receive no subsidies, either because the crops they grow are not eligible or because they are too small and marginal to qualify. In the case of cotton, the proportion of federal aid going to large operators is unusually lopsided. One percent of those receiving subsidies collected 28 percent of the money paid out between 1995 and 2003, according to the Environmental Working Group. In Mississippi, seven farms out of 10 receive no subsidies.

Nevertheless, large cotton farmers say they need the aid to cover high costs and compensate for depressed world prices.

About $16 billion of the $103 billion in farm subsidies paid out between 1995 and 2004 went to cotton growers, according to the Environmental Working Group. But in the past several years, the cotton industry has become the largest recipient, according to USDA figures, because the aid increases as world prices drop...

...It costs an average 65 cents for a farmer in the United States to produce a pound of cotton; the adjusted world price in late February ran less than 40 cents. This has made U.S. cotton growers unusually dependent on the government. A program called "Step 2" essentially subsidizes cotton exports and protects home producers from foreign competition.

Step 2, which has cost taxpayers more than $2 billion since 1990, pays a rebate to textile mills that buy U.S. cotton when foreign cotton is cheaper. Brokers who sell U.S. cotton abroad for less than what they paid at home can get the government to reimburse them for the difference.

By taking advantage of a raft of federal subsidies and legal loopholes, cotton farmers can boost their income to more than 70 cents a pound -- double the recent world price. Given this dependence, the stakes for the cotton industry in the coming battle are high. Without the safety net, some analysts contend, many of the 25,000 U.S. cotton growers would switch to crops such as soybeans or vegetables or quit farming..."</i>
</ul>It's hard to see a national security interest in cotton subsidies: <ul>
<i>"But Grassley </i>[Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley R-Iowa]<i> has made clear that cotton lobbyists have a tough fight this year.

"We have a farm program for two reasons, and cotton doesn't fall into either. One is food security for the American people and the other is national defense," Grassley said. "Napoleon said an army moves on its stomach. I can't eat cotton."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111018314539254748" rel="service.edit" title="The WTO Director General Race Candidates" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-06T23:12:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-07T08:33:35Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-07T08:12:25Z</created>
<link href="#111018314539254748" rel="alternate" title="The WTO Director General Race Candidates" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111018314539254748</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The WTO Director General Race Candidates</title>
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<b>The WTO Director-General Race Candidates</b>

Paul Geitner provides an overview of the WTO Director-General race in the <i>International Herald Tribune</i> on February 19: <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/18/business/wbtrade.html">High stakes in race to head the WTO</a> .

This is a nice article, with a lot of background, and reports on interviews with all four candidates.
<u>Seixas Corrêa</u>
<ul>
<i>"Seixas Corrêa stressed that he was not running as an individual, but as the representative of Brazil, which emerged at the 2003 Cancún meeting as a powerful voice for big but still developing economies in the world in a fresh grouping known as the Group of 20. "You cannot separate the person from the country," he said.

He also makes no bones about the fact that Brazil believes that, with the top jobs at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank securely in the hands of the West, it should cede the WTO to a developing country candidate "for reasons of balance."

That sort of perceived advocacy, however, may grate on others and render him unacceptable for a post that is supposed to represent all members equally, trade experts say."</i>
</ul>
<u>Jaya Krishna Cuttaree</u>
<ul>
<i>"Similarly, Cuttaree of Mauritius is seen by those handicapping the race as a long shot despite probable backing from the most countries, mainly in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. Those countries are usually viewed as eager to preserve some preferential treatment they enjoy from Europe as former colonies - an advantage other WTO members consider unfair, and counter to the concept of free trade."</i>
</ul>Cuttaree objected to this free trade reference in a subsequent letter to the editor: <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/18/business/wbtrade.html">"Heading the WTO"</a>.
<ul>
<i>"Heading the WTO

I was recently pegged in your pages as a "long shot" candidate for director general of the World Trade Organization with a background - I'm from Mauritius - that may lead some to question my commitment to free trade ("High stakes race to head the WTO," Feb 22). I wish to make very clear that I have a strong - and longstanding - commitment to free trade.

The backing of my candidacy by WTO member countries from Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific, would not connect me to an antitrade position. Presuming that I may be antitrade because of where I come from would be unfair and an inaccurate conclusion to draw from my record.

I am wholeheartedly committed to the underlying principles of the World Trade Organization. I have devoted my life to achieving the integration of my country and region into the global economy. I have worked for a strengthened WTO that accommodates the interests of all of its members. In recent years, my role as a bridge-builder between the rich and poor countries at the level of the WTO has helped to move toward the successful completion of the Doha round of talks on international development.

An effective and equitable multilateral trading system is in the general interest of every member.

The kind of politically sensitive issues that are on the WTO agenda today, along with the developmentally diverse character of the membership, call for a candidate who, above all, understands the role that a constructive process of negotiation and compromise must play in the international economic order.

Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, Port-Louis, Mauritius The writer is the minister of foreign affairs, international trade and regional cooperation of Mauritius."</i>
</ul>Returning to Geitner's article: <u>Carlos Pérez del Castillo</u>
<ul>
<i>"That leaves two front-runners: del Castillo from Uruguay, who has trumpeted his support not only from Latin America but also big free-traders like Australia and New Zealand, and Lamy, a Frenchman backed by the entire, 25-nation EU.

Del Castillo, who was in Washington this week making speeches and meeting members of Congress, stresses his insider status from a long career in Geneva.

"I think I can get on with things since I have the credentials, the knowledge and commitment to be working on Day One," he said. "I feel very competitive."

While he insists the campaign is not a "confrontation between candidates from the north and the south," he also highlights his first-hand knowledge of developing country issues as an asset."</i>
</ul>
<u>Pascal Lamy</u>
<ul>
<i>"That grates on Lamy, who pointedly notes that the job description makes no reference to nationality.

"The EU is not the bad guy," he said, pointing to initiatives he undertook as trade commissioner - often at great political cost - in everything from putting the EU's sacred farm subsidies on the block to increasing market openings for the poorest countries and improving access to medicines.

"I took a number of hits, notably from my home member state, because of the way I ran notably the agriculture side of the negotiation," he said. "So if the question is whether I can distance myself from a constituency, just look at the track record."

Lamy also benefits from his relatively high-profile and close personal relationships, not least with his good friend and sometimes jogging partner Robert Zoellick, whose promotion from U.S. trade representative to deputy U.S. secretary of state was approved by the Senate on Wednesday.

"Influence is something you have to earn and make bit by bit," Lamy said. "And I think it's something which I reasonably know how to do."

Whether he gets a chance to do so depends on how much members are willing to overlook his more controversial associations with Europe, which has a penchant for including environmental factors in trade decisions, and a hard-core resistance to genetically modified crops." "</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/111016945371759429" rel="service.edit" title="Interview with Pascal Lamy" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-06T19:24:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-07T08:09:28Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-07T04:24:13Z</created>
<link href="#111016945371759429" rel="alternate" title="Interview with Pascal Lamy" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-111016945371759429</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Interview with Pascal Lamy</title>
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Interview with Pascal Lamy</b>

Amitit Sen of India's <i>Financial Express</i> interviewed WTO Director General candidate Pascal Lamy, during the latter's recent visit to New Delhi: <a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=84510">"The Monday Interview: Pascal Lamy. ‘Developing countries must feel that they own the (WTO) system’"</a>. <ul>
<i>
<b>"As EU trade commissioner, you promoted EU’s cause at the WTO. Now, as one of the contestants for the DG’s post, you will be required to take the interests of all countries into consideration. How difficult will this be for you?</b>

The criteria for selection of DG lays great emphasis on experience. And there is no way to get experience other than being a trade negotiator. Everybody begins with fighting a corner. However, there is a big difference between fighting a corner and fighting the system. It requires a change in mind-frame. I, as EU commissioner, have already walked part of the road. In the EU system, you start with the national corner and then move to the EU corner. For example, in agriculture, I would not have agreed to zeroing of export subsidies if I had been fighting for the French. So, I think, I already know how to factor in larger interests.</i>
</ul>Periodically negotiations among the large number of WTO countries become difficult. At these times, a subset of the countries, hopefully representative of the different interests in play in the issue, will carry out a separate negotiation, and try to hammer out a position that may generate a consensus in the larger group. These are called "green room" negotiations. There is actually a green conference room in WTO headquarters which has given the name to this general procedure. Green room negotiations have been controversial in the past, and Lamy was asked about them. <ul>
<i>
<b>"The approach of arriving at decisions through greenrooms has been criticised on the grounds that it is too exclusive. Your comments.</b>

In some sense, a group like the greenroom is necessary. You have to test the possibility of convergence of agreements on a number of topics. It cannot be done in a room with 150 ministers. The problem is not with the room. It is one element in the process of convergence. If transparency is ensured, and if people who interact in the greenroom also interact with their constituencies, it works.

In July last year, we reached an agreement as there were people speaking for the G-20, G-90, G-33, G-10, the US and the EU. There was actually a much improved process in place. This sort of a gathering is unavoidable in a consensus-building process. The question is whether these representative groups can pre-frame the line of negotiations with their constituencies."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110992310474983999" rel="service.edit" title="Time Required to License (and End) a Business, China vs. India" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-03T22:58:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-04T08:01:07Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-04T07:58:24Z</created>
<link href="#110992310474983999" rel="alternate" title="Time Required to License (and End) a Business, China vs. India" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110992310474983999</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Time Required to License (and End) a Business, China vs. India</title>
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<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Time Required to License (and End) a Business, China vs. India</b>

<ul>
<i>"Indian bureaucracy continues to slow things down. According to a World Bank “Investment Climate Assessment” published last November, it takes 89 days to secure all the permits needed to start a business in India, compared with 41 in China. Insolvency procedures take ten years, compared with 2.4 in China."</i>
</ul>From a new <i>Economist</i> survey on India and China: <a href="http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3689214">"The Tiger in Front"</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110978934986338595" rel="service.edit" title="&quot;Anti-dumping&quot; by Developing Countries" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-03T22:40:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-04T07:48:59Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-02T18:49:09Z</created>
<link href="#110978934986338595" rel="alternate" title="&quot;Anti-dumping&quot; by Developing Countries" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110978934986338595</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">"Anti-dumping" by Developing Countries</title>
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<b>Anti-dumping by Developing Countries</b>

The use of anti-dumping laws to restrict imports is increasing, and the increase is taking place in developing countries rather than developed countries.

The following WTO data comes from a recent report by the Swedish National Board of Trade (<a href="http://www.tralac.org/pdf/Antidumping_in_4_Developing_Countries.pdf">"The Use of Antidumping in Brazil, China, India and South Africa - Rules, Trends and Causes"</a>):

<img height="400" src="http://www.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/images/Antidumping.jpg" width="600"/>
The authors caution that the "measures in force" data "must be read with caution as the reporting of antidumping measures in force is given by individual countries and vary in quality."

When goods are sold in a foreign country for less than they are sold at home, the goods are said to be dumped.

Anti-dumping laws attempt to identify dumping that harms domestic industries that compete with the imported goods, and to offset it with tariffs on the "dumped" goods.

There are all sorts of tricks that can be played in measuring and comparing foreign and domestic prices. Anti-dumping <a href="http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/FTBs/FTB-011.html">is easily abused</a>, and is often exploited by domestic industries that want to reduce competition from imports.

The trade agreements underlying the WTO regime provide <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/19-adp_01_e.htm">a set of rules to regulate member nation anti-dumping laws, and to limit abuse</a>. These rules <a href="http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/pas/tpa-021es.html">could be reformed</a> to help prevent a wider range of abuses. The WTO's anti-dumping rules are <a href="http://www.ictsd.org/weekly/05-02-16/WTOinbrief.htm#2">on the table now</a>, as part of the Doha Round of negotiations. The U.S. is not an advocate of refrom.

But maybe it should be. Other countries can use anti-dumping measures to restict import competition as well as we can. In fact, as shown above, the use of anti-dumping measures has been growing in potential markets in recent years.

Among the Swedish Board of Trade report's findings:

<ul>
<i>
<ul>
<li>"Since 1995 there is a general upward trend in both initiations and in the number of anti-dumping measures in force by developing countries. Of the four countries examined in this paper - Brazil, China, India and South Africa - India and China are among the new users of antidumping. Brazil and South Africa, on the other hand, have for a long time been traditional users. India is the largest user in relation to its imports.</li>
<li>The four countries examined targets developing countries to a lesser extent than industrialised countries do.</li>
<li>For all four countries rapid tariff reductions and increased market access during the 1990’s partly explain the increasing anti-dumping usage. In China and India an increase in imports might also explain the increased use of antidumping.</li>
<li>In India and South Africa especially, firms that have enjoyed a monopoly-like situation in their home markets prior to liberalisation have applied for antidumping protection post-liberalisation. In India antidumping petitions are often made by a one single domestic producer with a market share of above 90%.</li>
<li>The retaliation motive could also explain the use by these countries of antidumping, since these countries, especially China, are also frequent targets of antidumping investigations.</li>
<li>The EU is second only to China as the most frequent target of antidumping measures. As developing countries are increasing their imports from the EU they are also increasing their use of the antidumping instrument. There is thus a risk that the use of antidumping will affect European exports negatively.</li>
<li>Within the context of the Doha Round it is likely that the countries that consider themselves to be primarily targets of antidumping rather than users, among them Brazil and China, could agree to stricter rules.</li>
<li>The continued use of the antidumping instrument by industrialised countries undermines the good faith negotiations on special and differential treatment."</li>
</ul>
</i>
</ul>The information about the Swedish Board of Trade study via <a href="http://www.tralac.org/scripts/content.php?id=3456">
<i>Trade and Law Centre for Southern Africa</i>
</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110990890039674177" rel="service.edit" title="Endorsements for Jaya Krishna Cuttaree" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-03T19:01:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-04T04:10:53Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-04T04:01:40Z</created>
<link href="#110990890039674177" rel="alternate" title="Endorsements for Jaya Krishna Cuttaree" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110990890039674177</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Endorsements for Jaya Krishna Cuttaree</title>
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<b>Endorsements for Jaya Krishna Cuttaree</b>

Lekopanye Mooketsi reports for <a href="http://www.mmegi.bw/">
<i>Mmegi</i>
</a> (a newspaper in Botswana) on the activities of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC).

<a href="http://www.sadcreview.com/index.html">SADC</a> is an international organization of Southern African countries, whose objective is to relieve regional poverty. Its 14 members are Angola, Botswana, République Démocratic du Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Moçambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe

Among other things, SADC has endorsed Jaya Krishna Cuttaree for Director General of the WTO: <a href="http://www.mmegi.bw/2005/March/Thursday3/836605102863.html">" SADC approves expenditure for 2005/06 "</a>
<ul>
<i>"The SADC candidate for director general of the WTO, Jaya Krishna Cuttaree, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Regional Cooperation of Mauritius, has also been endorsed as the preferred candidate for the African Union, the African Caribbean, Pacific and Asian countries.

Ramasamy </i>[SADC executive secretary Prega Ramsamy - Ben]<i> said despite adverse media reports from the Western media, the SADC region is confident that the candidate will emerge victorious, given the large body of support already declared and the candidate’s wide experience in WTO matters."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110979806644058124" rel="service.edit" title="The Line Standers of DC" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-02T12:14:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T21:52:47Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-02T21:14:26Z</created>
<link href="#110979806644058124" rel="alternate" title="The Line Standers of DC" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110979806644058124</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Line Standers of DC</title>
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<b>The Line Standers of DC</b>

A "line standing" industry emerged as an adjunct to lobbying in the Washington, D.C. of the early 1990s. Libby Copeland describes the business in today's <i>Washington Post</i>: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64231-2005Mar1.html">"The Line Starts Here"</a>
<ul>
<i>"...Waiting 10, 20, 30 hours outside the House or the Senate, holding a place in line so some well-pressed lobbyist can sit upfront at a congressional hearing and bat eyes at all the right people -- this is democracy, or something like it. ..

We're talking public hearings, but John Q. would have trouble getting into many of them if he ever showed up. He'd be too far back in line, assuming he didn't have $35 an hour to pay a line-standing company, or the gumption to play line-stander himself...

...A line-standing company may pay a worker $10 an hour, $15 if he's a manager. He's holding a spot for a lobbyist or lawyer or legislative assistant whose sleep is much more valuable, who wants the luxury of showing up half an hour before the hearing. Some of the clients just want into the hearing room; others are very particular about getting good seats...

...There's a lot of turnover in the line-standing business, but there are also people who've been doing this, off and on, for 10, 15 years. (Line-standing companies have been around since at least the early '90s.) It's seasonal work, based on when Congress is in session, and it's last-minute and usually at most three days a week, since members like to take long weekends. But over the years the old-timers have gotten to know the halls of government well. They know the tunnels and the shortcuts, which hearing rooms are bigger than others, and which ones will be a squeeze.

Some of this institutional knowledge was honed during the glory days of line-standing. Before Sept. 11, 2001, the line-standers say, there was less supervision on the part of Capitol Police, and competition was fierce. Smart line-standers would bypass their colleagues by entering the office buildings through less-used entrances. There would be dashes through underground tunnels, sometimes ending with headfirst dives, or so the lore goes. One company went so far as to recruit college track runners.

Nowadays, there's no running. Everyone goes in the same entrance. The order of the line is sacrosanct...

Line-standing companies tend to go by abbreviations (CVK, QMS, CSC, JEH), which makes them sound at least as obscure as most federal agencies.

The people who run these companies are often bad-mouthing one another, and when they're not doing that they're copying one another. Some of the bosses have recon people, who sweep past the line-standing hub in the days before a hearing to see if any rivals have set up shop. If things get tight and there aren't enough bodies, some bosses have been known to recruit homeless people -- or at least, so says the competition...

...Hearings are sometimes shown in overflow rooms or on the Internet, but for many lobbyists, a virtual presence is not good enough. If lobbyists want to network, they'd better be in the room. If they want to take notes comfortably, they'd better be sitting. If they want to be noticed by staffers, they'd better be sitting up front. There are subtle cues to notice, like who's whispering excitedly to whom. There is cachet...

...With 30, 20 minutes to go, everyone gets out signs that say the names of the companies they are waiting for. The lobbyists approach, scanning the signs..."</i>
</ul>
<i>Revised March 2, 2005</i>
</div>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110971107034503474" rel="service.edit" title="ABARE's Guide to the Doha Agricultural Negotiations" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-01T23:04:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T08:03:26Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T21:04:30Z</created>
<link href="#110971107034503474" rel="alternate" title="ABARE's Guide to the Doha Agricultural Negotiations" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">ABARE's Guide to the Doha Agricultural Negotiations</title>
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<b>ABARE's Guide to the Doha Agricultural Negotiations</b>

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics (ABARE) has a good introduction to the interests in play in the Doha Round agricultural negotiations, in its March issue of <i>Agricultural Commodities</i>: <a href="http://www.abareconomics.com/australiancommodities/pdfsections/wtonegotiations.pdf">"WTO Trade Negotiations. Principles and Politics Affecting Agriculture"</a> (by Ivan Roberts, Roneel Nair and Andrew Jacenko).

On reason it'll be hard to reduce developed country farm subsidies - the transitional gains trap: <ul>
<i>"...it can be observed that, once established, agricultural protection is very difficult to phase down or eliminate. A primary reason for this is what was termed by Tullock (1975), the ‘transitional gains trap’. Tullock examined why many government programs do not seem to help farmers more than temporarily and concluded that the support was capitalised into fi xed farm assets, primarily land. Over time, when farms were sold, the price refl ected expectations of two streams of income, one from the market and one from the government support. If support were withdrawn, however, the value of the farm and the wealth of the purchaser would fall.

Governments are reluctant to be seen to be responsible for adversely affecting the wealth of constituents, and those affected by the removal of support would exert as much political pressure as possible to prevent it. Consequently there is a strong propensity for support to become institutionalised, and in some societies it is even
rationalised as necessary and desirable."</i>
</ul>Here's one rationalization: <ul>
<i>"In recent years there has been a trend toward using the concept of the ‘multifunctionality’ of agriculture as a reason for continuing to protect agriculture. Under this concept, agriculture is considered to have qualities of value to societies that are well beyond the provision of food and fibre as reflected in prices for agricultural products. Those qualities include such things as the value of rural landscapes, the cultural importance of maintaining a farming way of life and agriculturally based rural communities and various environmental benefi ts attributed to farming.

These arguments have been most widely used in western Europe, where much is made of the importance of the European system of farming. In Japan the concept has been taken even further, with links being drawn between agricultural protection and the prevention of flooding of major communities.

Such arguments depend on the limitations of using priced values alone as indicative of societal values, with the implication that unpriced values are strongly positive and warrant government support policies. They tend to downplay negative unpriced values such as pollution from highly supported intensive agriculture and loss of native habitats as a result of agricultural development."</i>
</ul>The United States Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS) has an article on <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/February05/Features/FarmPrograms.htm">"Farm Programs, Natural Amenities, and Rural Development"</a> (by David McGranahan and Patrick Sullivan) in the current issue of its house journal <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/">
<i>Amber Waves</i>
</a> .

McGranahan and Sullivan cast doubt on at least one of the tenets of multifunctionality, the visual appeal of farming landscapes, at least among the U.S. population: <ul>
<i>"...Studies of landscape preferences have found that people rate landscapes with open vistas and groves of trees more highly than those with either few trees or complete forestation. Except for farmers, who have a professional interest, people tend to rank landscapes dominated by farmland relatively low in appeal (although above developed land). Cropland in particular tends to have relatively little variation and to be inaccessible to the public."</i>
</ul>This is an interesting article more generally, raising questions about the significance of agricultural support for the economic development of rural counties: <ul>
<i>"Do farm program payments boost the vitality of rural communities? We might suppose that, by maintaining farm incomes, these payments allow participating farms and their households to remain viable and to continue purchasing local goods and services. Thus, these payments may help sustain the local economy and its population base... Yet, despite decades of farm program payments, economic researchers have been unable to establish that these payments help sustain farm-based communities. Many areas that have consistently garnered high payments from farm programs have lost population decade after decade, even during periods when most other rural areas were gaining population.

Recent ERS research on the differences in population change between counties receiving high government payments and other rural counties found that these differences were associated with several nonagricultural factors. In particular, natural amenities—temperate climate, a mix of forest and open space, lakes—are highly correlated with population and employment growth, and these amenities are relatively scarce in agricultural areas with substantial farm program payments. Other factors, such as remoteness from major cities and sparseness of settlement, also limit the ability of these areas to attract new residents and nonfarm businesses. In short, the constraints on economic growth in these areas are less related to agricultural jobs and income than to geography and landscape. Farm programs, as they are currently structured, do not address the causes of long-term population decline experienced by many farming communities."</i>
</ul>Thanks to the <i>New Economist</i> for the "heads up" on the ABARE article:<a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2005/03/doha_whats_it_a.html">New Economist: Doha - What's it all about?</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110971068951311937" rel="service.edit" title="Try Doing Business in This Environment" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-01T23:02:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T08:02:39Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T20:58:09Z</created>
<link href="#110971068951311937" rel="alternate" title="Try Doing Business in This Environment" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110971068951311937</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Try Doing Business in This Environment</title>
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<b>Try Doing Business in This Environment</b>

Arkady Ostrovsky reports on the difficulties faced by small businesses in today's Russia, in the <i>Financial Times</i> : <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/02384ae2-89f7-11d9-aa18-00000e2511c8.html">"Investment dries up as rule of law seeps away in Russia"</a> .

The national government's looting of Yukos has created a precedent that's being followed at the local level:
<ul>
<i>"...At the top end of the spectrum is Yukos, the oil giant that has been dismantled by the state and had its assets re-distributed in favour of former members of Russia's security services who claim they are protecting state interests.

That case has attracted media attention but hundreds of thousands of tiny Yukos affairs are going on all over Russia.

Nikolai Gavrilov, a former prosecutor and the president of Samara's Centre for Legal Rights, which helps businessmen fight corruption, says: "Everything that is happening in the capital feeds through to the regions.

The attack on Mikhail Khodorkovsky (former Yukos chief executive) demonstrated to local authorities that if you can do it to him in Moscow, you can do it to everyone in the regions." "</i>
</ul>Here's an example of what goes on: <ul>
<i>"Ms Ananyeva and her business partner should count themselves lucky: while they have probably lost their investment, Maria Voronina, the 54-year-old owner of a small art gallery in the centre of Samara, almost lost her life. The gallery, which she converted from an abandoned Soviet canteen for $50,000, has been open since 1992. But a few months ago several burly men turned up asking to be shown around. "They talked among themselves about opening a casino here," she explains. "They asked me to sublet the space but I refused."

Ms Voronina discovered a few weeks later that the gallery had been put up for sale. "I went to the mayor's office and told them that they can't do that, that I would complain."
That night she came home late after seeking advice from some lawyer friends. Three men in black were waiting outside her house. One put a gun to her head, the other two started to kick her. Some hours later she woke in a puddle of blood, heavily concussed..."</i>
</ul>It shouldn't be a surprise that "businessmen in the Samara region are investing less than they used to: last year the growth rate of domestic investment halved from 5.1 per cent to 2.6 cent."</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110971011919468144" rel="service.edit" title="Early TV" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-01T23:01:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T08:02:12Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T20:48:39Z</created>
<link href="#110971011919468144" rel="alternate" title="Early TV" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110971011919468144</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Early TV</title>
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<b>Early TV</b>

Geitner Simmons, at <i>Regions of Mind,</i> describes the early days of TV, in the U.S. and Nazi Germany: <a href="http://regionsofmind.blog-city.com/read/1102750.htm">"Watching TV in 1940"</a> .</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110971961796144497" rel="service.edit" title="Will Uruguay's New Socialist Government Continue to Back Pérez del Castillo?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-01T14:26:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T07:28:41Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T23:26:57Z</created>
<link href="#110971961796144497" rel="alternate" title="Will Uruguay's New Socialist Government Continue to Back Pérez del Castillo?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110971961796144497</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Will Uruguay's New Socialist Government Continue to Back Pérez del Castillo?</title>
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<b>Will Uruguay's New Socialist Government Continue to Back Pérez del Castillo?</b>

Last October, the Uruguayan left won national elections - Socialist Tabaré Vázquez was sworn in as President today.

This story from the <i>New York Times</i> places the left's victory in Uruguay in the context of a continental move to the left: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/01/international/americas/01uruguay.html?oref=login">"With New Chief, Uruguay Veers Left, in a Latin Pattern"</a> . Here's the <i>Time's</i> story on the inaugural ceremonies: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/02/international/americas/02uruguay.html?oref=login">"Leftist Chief Is Installed in Uruguay and Gets Busy on Agenda"</a>.

The second <i>Times'</i> story reports on the new administration's first actions. The <i>Times'</i> doesn't report on the administration's attitude towards Uruguay's candidate for Director General of the WTO.

The Uruguayan candidate, Carlos Pérez del Castillo, was nominated by the preceding centrist government.  As Michael C. Boyer, James G. Forsyth, and Jai Singh reported for <i>Foreign Policy</i> (<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2776&amp;print=1">"Who Gets to Run the WTO?"</a>): <ul>
<i>"Uruguay’s new leftist government, led by President-elect Tabare Vazquez, will assume power on March 1, and it is rumored that it may decide to back the Brazilian candidate, Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corrêa, who is more closely aligned with the leftist trend away from neoliberal economics and free trade."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110971175575604430" rel="service.edit" title="The Tiffin Carriers of Mumbai" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-03-01T12:15:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-02T08:01:34Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T21:15:55Z</created>
<link href="#110971175575604430" rel="alternate" title="The Tiffin Carriers of Mumbai" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110971175575604430</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Tiffin Carriers of Mumbai</title>
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<b>The Tiffin Carriers of Mumbai</b>

From John Palmer at <i>Eclectic Econoclast</i> <a href="http://the-econoclast.blogspot.com/2005/03/factor-substitution-tiffin-of-mumbai.html">"Factor Substituion: the Tiffin of Mumbai"</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110966002560288277" rel="service.edit" title="China and India" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-28T21:51:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-01T08:31:50Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T06:53:45Z</created>
<link href="#110966002560288277" rel="alternate" title="China and India" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110966002560288277</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">China and India</title>
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<b>China and India</b>

Last week the <i>Financial Times</i> ran a series of articles on the relationship between China and India. Some high points:

Both China and India are growing, but can they keep it up? (<a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ce8ca9e4-850b-11d9-a172-00000e2511c8.html">"Asia's giants take different routes Martin Wolf looks at why Beijing has enjoyed the greater success in stimulating growth - and what New Delhi will have to do to catch up"</a> - registration required):
<ul>
<i>"... The principal internal constraints on China's growth are institutional: the lack of a rule of law, the consequent uncertainty of property rights, the inefficiency of state enterprises and the profound weakness of the financial system. Important symptoms of these weaknesses have been the reliance on foreign entrepreneurship and an offshore financial and legal centre, namely, Hong Kong.

Behind these weaknesses lies something more profound: a political system that is unlikely to prove suitable for an increasingly sophisticated economy and society... An important symptom of China's institutional weaknesses is the inefficiency with which capital is used...

... 60 per cent of all loans between 1993 and 2000 went to state enterprises. It is astonishing that, in the world's fastest growing economy, as much as 40 per cent of existing loans is considered bad...

China does not only confront domestic challenges. It may well also confront external constraints. China's extraordinary success in export markets has been a powerful engine of growth. Yet it is hard to believe that this can continue, now that China is such a huge player in world trade and its own economy is already so open...

If China's growth does remain rapid, can India match it? The optimistic view has been well expressed by Vijay Kelkar, a former senior civil servant.*** Mr Kelkar argues that India's political stability, well-entrenched democracy, relatively effective financial system, deepening international economic integration and improving environment for provision of infrastructure augur well for future growth.

More fundamentally, India enjoys a greater demographic dividend, with the population of working age expected to rise as a share of the total until 2050, unlike in China, while the quality of the labour force is also improving. The private savings rate should continue to rise as living standards improve and the child dependency ratio falls. Finally, the growth of productivity has been reasonably good in India since 1980...

Yet India, too, suffers from many constraints. Public sector dis-saving imposes a significant limit on capital formation. The political and legal systems, though well developed, are also cumbersome and inefficient. Politics lacks a focus on development..."</i>
</ul>Last week there many reports on new U.N. population projections, forecasting that India's population would be bigger than China's by 2030. The <i>Times'</i> story is here: <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e9f9c79c-86d3-11d9-8075-00000e2511c8.html">"Population of India forecast to overtake China's by 2030 "</a> - registration required. Other news sources indicated that India's current fertility rate is three children per woman, while China's is 1.7.

Edward Luce and Richard McGregor looked at bilateral economic relations between India and China: <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b4f1d2ea-8608-11d9-9d02-00000e2511c8.html">"India's prowess in services and China's manufacturing strength are complementary but both countries can also grow in sectors where they compete directly. Other nations should consider how to respond, write Edward Luce andRichard McGregor"</a> - registration required. <ul>
<i>"To some extent China and India's strengths are complementary rather than clashing. Whereas China has become the world's workshop for manufactured goods, India is developing a highly competitive services sector...

Yet bilateral trade and investment ties are not simply about India selling software to China and China selling hardware to India. The division of labour is not so clear cut.

A few years ago there was deep fear in New Delhi about the prospect of cheap Chinese imports flooding into India. Yet India actually has a modest trade surplus with China, driven largely by the export of Indian raw materials such as cement and iron ore, but also by exports of manufactured goods including plastics and steel."</i>
</ul>Will an economically strong India provide a counterweight to China for the ASEAN nations and the U.S.? <ul>
<i>"India's economic emergence is openly encouraged by the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations, which has become increasingly concerned about the growing preponderance of China. In much the same way as the US hopes India will become a geopolitical counterweight to China over the next decades, Asean hopes India will become an economic counterweight.

That may be premature. India, with its sensitivity about sovereignty, bristles at being asked to play roles on behalf of other countries. But economic ties between India and China will continue to grow and a convergence of the two giants' broader interests at the World Trade Organisation and elsewhere will help bring them closer together."</i>
</ul>Both China and India are working hard to secure external energy sources. (<a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/510893ee-869f-11d9-8075-00000e2511c8.html">"Fuel for rivalry "</a> by Victor Mallet - registration required) Recall that the sea lanes between China and the Middle East go through the Indian Ocean, past India.

<ul>
<i>"With world energy supplies already tight, the question is not whether the rising demand from India and China will bring them into commercial competition with each other and with other big importers such as the US and Japan: that is already happening. The question is whether it will lead to diplomatic tension and ultimately increase the risk of military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.

For the moment, the competition for resources is fierce but not hostile. The main evidence of concern is that Beijing, nervous about the possible use of US and Indian naval power to control oil supplies from the Middle East in the event of conflict, is rapidly strengthening its own navy. "The Chinese are building up a capability to defend those sea lanes," says Gary Samore, director of studies at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "There is a naval rivalry building up in south-east Asia and the Indian Ocean..."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110965796399773109" rel="service.edit" title="From the WTO to UNCTAD" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-28T21:19:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-01T06:27:00Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T06:19:23Z</created>
<link href="#110965796399773109" rel="alternate" title="From the WTO to UNCTAD" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110965796399773109</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">From the WTO to UNCTAD</title>
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<b>From the WTO to UNCTAD</b>

What happens when a WTO DG's term ends?

The Kazakh Information Agency reports that the current DG, Supachai Panitchpakdi, will become head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD): <a href="http://www.inform.kz/txt/showarticle.php?lang=eng&amp;id=113405">"Thai WTO chief appointed to head UNCTAD"</a>.

The <i>Financial Times</i> covers the story (<a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6a94ab6a-89f9-11d9-aa18-00000e2511c8.html">"Supachai named to head Unctad"</a>), and notes that Supachai is replacing Brazilian Rubens Ricupero.  Ricupero ran unsuccessfully for WTO DG in 1994.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110965757955519347" rel="service.edit" title="Still Waters Run Deep" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-28T21:12:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-01T06:14:07Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T06:12:59Z</created>
<link href="#110965757955519347" rel="alternate" title="Still Waters Run Deep" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110965757955519347</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Still Waters Run Deep</title>
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<b>Still Waters Run Deep</b>

"ONCE they were a byword for mindless docility. But cows have a secret mental life in which they bear grudges, nurture friendships and become excited over intellectual challenges, scientists have found..."

Jonathan Leake, Science Editor for Britain's <i>Sunday Times</i> reports: <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1502933,00.html">"The secret life of moody cows"</a> 

via <a href="http://aldaily.com/">
<i>Arts &amp; Letters Daily</i>
</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110965383506977699" rel="service.edit" title="We Need A New USTR" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-28T20:10:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-03-01T17:46:22Z</modified>
<created>2005-03-01T05:10:35Z</created>
<link href="#110965383506977699" rel="alternate" title="We Need A New USTR" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110965383506977699</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">We Need A New USTR</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;We Need A New USTR&lt;/b&gt;

We've know since the first week of January (and the Bush Administration has known longer) that Robert Zoellick was stepping down as United States Trade Representative (USTR - the chief US trade negotiator), to be Rice's Deputy in the State Department.

Now, almost eight weeks later, the USTR position has not been filled. &lt;a href="http://www.ustr.gov/Who_We_Are/Bios/Ambassador_Peter_Allgeier.html"&gt;Peter Allgeier&lt;/a&gt;, a career civil servant in the USTR office, and a Deputy USTR under Zoellick, has been appointed "Acting" USTR.

The &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt; editorialized today on the need to formally fill the USTR position: &lt;a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c184873c-892d-11d9-b7ed-00000e2511c8.html"&gt;"Situation vacant"&lt;/a&gt; The &lt;i&gt;Times&lt;/i&gt; emphasized the need to fill the position with someone with political stature:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The trade representative needs to be more than a technocrat. What is needed is someone with a broad international outlook, an understanding of the importance of the task and, above all, substantial political weight. The representative must be able to talk easily and persuasively to foreign counterparts, the domestic public, Congress and the White House. These become all the more essential when, as now, deals are to be closed. Mr Bush should not be content with an acting representative, however technically competent he may be. Trade is far too important to be downgraded in this way."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;There's a lot of work to be done this spring:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Doha negotiations (the next 20 weeks - through the end of July - are widely believed to be a "crunch time" - see below - for the negotiations)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Congressional passage of the Central American Free Trade Agreements (CAFTA) (which the &lt;i&gt;Times&lt;/i&gt; suggests will be an important indicator of the potential of a Doha Round agreement)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Selection of a new Director General for the WTO&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110793076547784156"&gt;"Renewal of the Trade Act of 2002"&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;a potential congressional vote on US withdrawal from the WTO (&lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110810373937480671"&gt;"Should the US leave the WTO?"&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Failure to fill the position undercuts the status and strength of the USTR position within the U.S. government. It reduces U.S. ability to influence trade negotiations, or provide leadership.

As a case in point - this week there's an informal meeting of WTO member country trade ministers in Kenya. The goal is to move the Doha Round negotiations forward. Richard Waddington reports, Here: &lt;a href="http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp;:422320d5:9944f16d2693385a?type=topNews&amp;localeKey=en_ZA&amp;amp;storyID=7757693"&gt;"Trade ministers to meet in Kenya as "crunch time" nears"&lt;/a&gt;. Waddington notes,
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"...Preparations for Hong Kong will be addressed at the meeting, to be attended by ministers from Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Rwanda and Thailand amongst others.

But the United States will be represented by deputy Trade Representative Peter Allgeier because no replacement has yet been named for Robert Zoellick, who has switched posts to become number two at the State Department.

The absence of the top U.S. trade official could weigh against any clear decisions being taken in Kenya, diplomats say..."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;We don't need this.

&lt;i&gt;Revised 3-1-05: crunch time thru the end of July, not June&lt;/i&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110947266045829912" rel="service.edit" title="The Brazilians Are Not Happy With Pascal Lamy" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-26T17:51:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-27T05:11:13Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-27T02:51:00Z</created>
<link href="#110947266045829912" rel="alternate" title="The Brazilians Are Not Happy With Pascal Lamy" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110947266045829912</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Brazilians Are Not Happy With Pascal Lamy</title>
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<b>The Brazilians Are Not Happy With Pascal Lamy</b>

According to <i>MercoPress</i>, a few days ago WTO Director General candidate Pascal Lamy proposed, at a UN conference, declaring "the Amazon region and other rain forests as 'global public assets' subject to world management.

Brazil, with its own DG candidate, sees the potential for interference in its affairs. The <i>MercoPress</i> report is here: <a href="http://www.falkland-malvinas.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=5177">"Brazil reacts angrily to Amazon proposal"</a>

<ul>
<i>"Brazil reacted angrily to former European Union Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy's proposal to declare the Amazon region and other rain forests as "global public assets” subject to world management

The proposal, which revived Brazil’s fears that rich countries pretend control over the Amazon region was harshly condemned in a release from the country’s Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Mr. Lamy’s statements "are evidence of a prejudiced view underestimating the ability of developing nations to manage their natural resources in a sovereign and sustainable manner", said the release. "Such statements are incompatible with the post of director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to which Mr. Lamy aspires".

The statement refers to the current competition for the WTO chair between five candidates, including Mr. Lamy and Brazilian Ambassador Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa.

The Brazilian press speculates that Brazil will use Mr. Lamy’s Amazon proposal to influence the votes of other countries with tropical rainforests, such as the seven other South American countries that share the Amazon region. "</i>
</ul>Right now there are only four WTO DG candidates.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110937302129666249" rel="service.edit" title="Pascal Lamy Turns Up In India" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-25T14:10:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-26T03:02:05Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-25T23:10:21Z</created>
<link href="#110937302129666249" rel="alternate" title="Pascal Lamy Turns Up In India" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110937302129666249</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Pascal Lamy Turns Up In India</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Pascal Lamy Turns Up In India&lt;/b&gt;

Pascal Lamy took his campaign for Director General of the WTO to India this past week.

Monica Gupta reports in the &lt;i&gt;Business Standard&lt;/i&gt;: &lt;a href="http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?storyflag=y&amp;amp;leftnm=lmnu2&amp;leftindx=2&amp;amp;lselect=1&amp;amp;chklogin=N&amp;autono=181887"&gt;"Lamy seeks consensus pitch for top WTO job"&lt;/a&gt; &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"According to Lamy, the new director-general's work is pretty much chalked out for the year, with the Doha round and the Hong Kong Ministerial in December being top priority.

"Many developing countries don't have a permanent contact with the system (WTO). The WTO secretariat, which tends to become bureaucratic, should be more developing country-friendly," he said.

"The director-general will also have to work towards building a better working relationship with other institutions like the Unctad, the World Bank and the IMF. As D-G of the WTO, he has the mandate to do that," he said adding that a candidate from a developed country like himself could exercise the necessary clout to achieve this objective."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Should developing countries support a European Director General?&lt;i&gt;
&lt;/i&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;ul&gt;"Asked if he considered his EU background to be a disadvantage for garnering support from the poorer countries, Lamy said, “On the contrary, there were several occasions where I, as trade commissioner, had taken a stand contrary to the view of domestic constituency.”

I was extremely unpopular in France due to my stand on agriculture. Similarly, concessions on drugs given to developing countries under TRIPS (Trade related intellectual property rights) was extremely unpopular with the pharma industry in EU."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110931364294144178" rel="service.edit" title="HIV/AIDS and Life Expectancy in Africa" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-24T21:33:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-25T06:52:03Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-25T06:40:42Z</created>
<link href="#110931364294144178" rel="alternate" title="HIV/AIDS and Life Expectancy in Africa" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110931364294144178</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">HIV/AIDS and Life Expectancy in Africa</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>HIV/AIDS and Life Expectancy in Africa</b>

Here is some food for thought from the <a href="http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/">
<i>Economic Report of the President, 2005</i>
</a>:

<img height="400" src="http://www.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/images/Africa_life_expect.jpg" width="600"/>
The <i>Report</i> notes that <ul>
<i>"As a result of its lethality and the relative youth of its victims, HIV/AIDs has reduced life expectancy by more than 20 years in many African countries. Life expectancy in some countries is projected to fall to roughly 30 years within the next decade, whereas in the absence of HIV/AIDS some were expected to approach or exceed 70 years.</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110929772233892084" rel="service.edit" title="Underground in Brazil" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-24T17:15:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-25T05:50:04Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-25T02:15:22Z</created>
<link href="#110929772233892084" rel="alternate" title="Underground in Brazil" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110929772233892084</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Underground in Brazil</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Underground in Brazil</b>

Mahalanobis reports on a McKinsey study on Brazil's underground economy: <a href="http://mahalanobis.twoday.net/stories/539272/">"Brazil's Informal Economy"</a> . "...the informal economy generates nearly 40 percent of the national income..."

A large underground economy slows down economic growth:

<ul>
<i>"Few policy makers are concerned, but they should be. By avoiding taxes and regulatory obligations, informal companies gain a substantial cost advantage that allows them to stay in business despite their small scale and low productivity and prevents more productive, formal companies from gaining market share. The result is slower economic growth and job creation..."</i>(From another Mahalanobis post)</ul>High taxes, regulation, and weak enforcement are implicated.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110928096003279554" rel="service.edit" title="The Economic Report of the President, 2005" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-24T12:36:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-24T21:41:01Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-24T21:36:00Z</created>
<link href="#110928096003279554" rel="alternate" title="The Economic Report of the President, 2005" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110928096003279554</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Economic Report of the President, 2005</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>The Economic Report of the President, 2005</b>

The annual <i>Economic Report of the President</i> (ERP) is now available: <a href="http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/">Economic Report of the President: Main Page</a>

This year a chapter was deleted for political reasons. A blog posts <a href="http://voxbaby.blogspot.com/2005/02/chapter-that-wasnt.html">Andrew Samwick</a> gives a view into the White House economic analysis and policy machinery (Samwick worked at the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), the agency responsible for the ERP, for a year).</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110927885503892547" rel="service.edit" title="Paper Bags Were Once a Luxury Item" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-24T12:00:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-24T22:01:39Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-24T21:00:55Z</created>
<link href="#110927885503892547" rel="alternate" title="Paper Bags Were Once a Luxury Item" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110927885503892547</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Paper Bags Were Once a Luxury Item</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Paper Bags Were Once a Luxury Item</b>

We take too much for granted.

Don Boudreaux at <a href="http://cafehayek.typepad.com">Cafe Hayek</a> explains why paper bags are no longer a luxury item, only affordable by the rich: <a href="http://cafehayek.typepad.com/hayek/2005/02/bag_the_politic.html">"Bag the Politicians"</a>

The Industrial Revolution made the world available to ordinary people. It was the poor who were it's greatest beneficiaries - a point that comes through in John Masefield's poem, "Cargoes.":
<ul>
<i>Quinquireme of Nineveh from distant Ophir
Rowing home to have in sunny Palestine,
With a cargo of ivory,
And apes and peacocks,
Sandalwood, cedarwood, and sweet white wine.

Stately Spanish galleon coming from the Isthmus,
Dipping through the Tropics by he palm-green shores,
With a cargo of diamonds
Emeralds, amethests,
Topazes, and cinnamon, and gold moidores.

Dirty British coaster with a salt-caked smoke-stack
Butting through the Channel in the mad March days,
With a cargo of Tyne coal,
Road-rail, pig-lead,
Firewood, iron-ware, and cheap tin trays."</i>
</ul>The dirty British coaster may lack the romance of the stately Spanish galleon, but the "cheap tin trays" it carries signal the good life for ordinary people.  The first two ships aren't working for them.

By the way, George Soule has a nice short essay on the poem here, <a href="http://www.people.carleton.edu/~gsoule/Masefield.htm">"John Masefield's 'Cargoes'"</a> , with a somewhat different take on Masefield's intent.

<i>Revised 2-24-05</i>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110871402571075105" rel="service.edit" title="How Renato Ruggiero Became the First Director General of the WTO" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-23T23:03:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-24T08:15:26Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-18T08:07:05Z</created>
<link href="#110871402571075105" rel="alternate" title="How Renato Ruggiero Became the First Director General of the WTO" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110871402571075105</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">How Renato Ruggiero Became the First Director General of the WTO</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>How Renato Ruggiero Became the First Director General of the WTO</b>

This year's race for Director General (DG) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is the third in the WTO's history. Both of the other competitions were contentious.

The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor to the WTO, lasted from 1948 to 1994, and had four Directors General (DsG). From the retirement of the first GATT DG in 1968, DsG were chosen by consensus.

From 1968 to 1993, the position was filled by civil servants. Following an "informal understanding," these were "chosen from a smaller industrialized country" and the deputy director general positions were divided "between the United States and the developing countries..."(page 55; page references refer to the Kahler paper on which this post is based - see below)

Things began to change in 1993, when Peter Sutherland, of Ireland, was chosen as the last GATT DG. Sutherland had been a commissioner to the European Community, and thus had a somewhat higher political profile than previous DsG. In another change from the past, candidates from developing countries emerged to contest the selection. (pages 55-56)

The agreements establishing the WTO were signed in April 1994, and came into force in January 1995. The selection process for the first WTO DG began shortly after the agreements were signed, with nominations made during June 1994. The four nominees were Renato Ruggiero, an Italian diplomat and former Foreign Trade Minister, Rubens Ricupero, the Brazilian Finance Minister, and a former ambassador to the GATT, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, President of Mexico, and Kim Chul-su, South Korea's Trade Minister. (page 56)

During the first part of the WTO race, a parallel contest was going on for the leadership of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This race was resolved in the fall, when one candidate was given an 18-month term, to be followed by another candidate who was given a full five year term. The parallel OECD-WTO races led to proposals for tradeoffs between them. The failure of the OECD to reach a decision, and the resort to a term-sharing compromise, were repeated by the WTO in the spring of 1995. (pages 57-59)

Ricupero's candidacy ended first; he had to leave the race in September, "after admitting that he had massaged official economic statistics in Brazil to enhance his party's electoral fortunes." (56)

Regional blocs formed around the remaining three WTO candidates. The EU endorsed Ruggiero in September, while the US endorsed Salinas de Gortari and Japan backed Kim, in October. (page 56-57) As of October, the race among the remaining candidates was close. A first round of consultations that month found the member countries fairly evenly divided among the three candidates. (page 60)

The Salinas de Gortari candidacy was badly damaged when the Mexican financial crisis broke in 1994. Where the three candidates been neck and neck in the fall, by February Ruggiero had pulled far ahead of both of the others (page 60). Salinas' candidacy died when he withdrew on March 1, 1995, the day after his brother was arrested for murder. (pages 60-61)

Salinas’ withdrawal left Ruggiero and Kim. The campaign dragged out for another two weeks, as U.S. internal indecision apparently prevented it from choosing between the two. The US Trade Representative, Mickey Kantor, was strongly opposed to Ruggiero, although other officials were not (pages 60-61).

In mid to late March, a series of compromises ended the contest. The U.S. accepted Ruggiero, but he was given a four-year, rather than a six-year, term; Sutherland, who had already agreed to one extension of his term, agreed to stay on until the end of April; a new DDG position was created for Kim (page 61). This set of compromises was controversial: <ul>
<i>"This open trade of a senior WTO position for crucial political support outraged some member states. The side agreement violated WTO rules, which stipulated that the creation of a new position first required consultation with the membership. African governments were particularly offended, since they had offered crucial support to Ruggiero, and they believed themselves underrepresented in Geneva. They immediately began to press for the creation of a fifth DDG position."</i>(page 61)</ul>This post is an abstract of a short history of the race by Miles Kahler, from pages 55-62 of his book <a href="http://bookstore.iie.com/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Product_Code=339">
<i>Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals</i>
</a>.

As Kahler tells the story, this selection process was marked by a continuation of the shift towards political and away from civil service candidates, begun with Sutherland. It was also marked by heightened competition, increased competition from developing country candidates, an inability to meet the deadline for concluding the process, regional coalitions between candidates, frustrated developing countries, violation of WTO rules, and the promise of a DDG position to obtain support. Regional loyalties appear to have been more important than candidate policy positions.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110915117513602796" rel="service.edit" title="How Much Can College Economics Professors Make?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-23T00:32:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-23T09:46:18Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-23T09:32:55Z</created>
<link href="#110915117513602796" rel="alternate" title="How Much Can College Economics Professors Make?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110915117513602796</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">How Much Can College Economics Professors Make?</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>How Much Can College Economics Professors Make?</b>

Phil Miller, at the blog <a href="http://marketpower.blogspot.com/">
<i>Market Power</i>
</a>, posts some generous extracts from a <i>Wall Street Journal</i> article on academic economists: <a href="http://marketpower.blogspot.com/2005/02/market-for-academic-economists.html">"The Market for Academic Economists"</a>

I became an economist because I thought people who spent all their time thinking about money would inevitably get a lot of it. Apparently I don't spend as much time thinking about it as these guys: <ul>
<i>"The scramble for talent has driven up salaries. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, salaries for economics teachers, a category that includes professors, averaged nearly $140,000 a year -- based on a 52-week year -- in 2003, making it one of the highest-paid professions that the government tracks. But at the elite colleges, economics professors can earn substantially more, with some senior faculty commanding $150,000 to $250,000 for nine months' work. Other forms of compensation such as housing subsidies and signing bonuses can be used to bolster pay packages. Superstars, such as Nobel Prize winners, can earn in excess of $300,000."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110904789951808299" rel="service.edit" title="Tulsa, May 31, 1921" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-21T19:51:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-22T05:29:38Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-22T04:51:39Z</created>
<link href="#110904789951808299" rel="alternate" title="Tulsa, May 31, 1921" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110904789951808299</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Tulsa, May 31, 1921</title>
<content type="application/xhtml+xml" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">
<div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<b>Tulsa, May 31, 1921</b>

Brad DeLong provides extracts from a <i>Financial Times</i> column on the Tulsa Race Riot of 1921: <a href="http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2005-3_archives/000382.html">"The 1921 Tulsa Riot"</a>.  Here are some more:

<ul>
<i>"Historians call the firestorm that convulsed Tulsa from the evening of May 31 into the afternoon of June 1 the single worst event in the history of American race relations...

...In 1921, a leafy neighbourhood sprawled here </i>[North Tulsa - Ben]<i>. Back then it was called Greenwood, and it was a black neighbourhood as affluent as any in America. Its small but thriving business district was dubbed "black Wall Street". Greenwood, as Clark and other survivors remember it, was a city within a city. "We had it all," he says, "Shops, schools, movie theatres, doctors, lawyers, newspapers -you name it."

Sixteen years earlier a vast petroleum field had been discovered nearby, and by 1921 Tulsa had become known as "the oil capital of the world". The town was awash in oil dollars, and the ascendant class of oilmen and their families needed more than domestics - they needed a service sector. Greenwood bloomed... as many as 10,000 blacks enjoyed the quiet and prosperity on the western edge of the Ozark Mountains. But Greenwood posed a challenge. "The old order would not stand much longer," wrote legal scholar Alfred Brophy in Reconstructing the Dreamland, the most recent of more than half a dozen books on the riot. "It was a culture that would not easily abide unequal treatment."

The riot began, as the battles in America's race wars often seem to, with an allegation of sexual assault. On the warm afternoon of Memorial Day, May 30, 1921, in the Drexel Building that still stands downtown, a 19-year-old black shoeshine boy named Dick Rowland had gone to the "coloured" men's toilets on the top floor. Sarah Page, a 17-year-old white girl - an orphan, Tulsans were soon told, working her way through college - ran the elevator. What transpired between the two remains a mystery, but whether Rowland tripped, or grabbed Page's hand, or never even touched her, the girl screamed. It was enough. By the following afternoon, a front- page headline in the Tulsa Tribune, trusted daily of the town's white citizens, exhorted: "Nab Negro for Attacking Girl in Elevator". Rowland, the Tribune cried, had attacked Page. The spectre of rape raised, the lynching calls ensued.

At the courthouse downtown where Rowland was being held, a white mob squared off against armed black men. Veterans of the first world war, they had come from Greenwood to stave off a lynching. Shots broke out and mayhem ensued. Officers of the Tulsa police and county sheriff's department sided with the whites, hastily deputising hundreds and handing out weapons. National Guard troops were called in from neighbouring towns, arriving in trucks mounted with machine-guns. The guardsmen not only abetted the violence, but disarmed and rounded up hundreds of black defenders of Greenwood. As the whites fired at will, local biplanes circled above, scouting for blacks and - according to some reports - dropping incendiary explosives.

When martial law finally brought quiet, 35 blocks of Tulsa's north side - with 1,256 houses and 23 churches - had burned to the ground. Hundreds of homes and shops had been looted. Black men had been shot, burned and dragged through the streets...

...The true death toll will never be known. The confirmed count stopped at 39, but a Red Cross tally at the time ran as high as 300 dead - most of them black.

In the riot's aftermath, an all-white grand jury affirmed that "there was no mob spirit among the whites, no talk of lynching and no arms". No participant in the riot was ever tried for a felony crime."</i>
</ul>The longer article in the <i>Financial Times</i> is concerned with the reparations movement in the US.  DeLong was tipped off by a post at <a href="http://www.crookedtimber.org/">
<i>Crooked Timber</i>
</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110902013763800150" rel="service.edit" title="You Win the WTO DG Race.  What Do You Do First?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-21T12:07:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-22T01:25:46Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-21T21:08:57Z</created>
<link href="#110902013763800150" rel="alternate" title="You Win the WTO DG Race.  What Do You Do First?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110902013763800150</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">You Win the WTO DG Race.  What Do You Do First?</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;You Win the WTO DG Race. What Do You Do First?&lt;/b&gt;

Once you’ve been chosen Director General (DG) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), what do you do?

Mike Moore, a former new Zealand Trade Minister and Prime Minister, was selected as Director General of the WTO in late-July 1999. His term began on September 1. An important meeting of member nation trade ministers was scheduled for Seattle, November 30 to December 3.

Moore looked back in his 2003 book, &lt;a href="”http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0521827019/qid=1109020615/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-0655084-9016739?v=glance&amp;s=books”"&gt;&lt;i&gt;A World Without Walls &lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. He didn’t look systematically at the steps involved in taking up the DG responsibilities, that wasn't the purpose of the book. But, he did describe some of them.

It's not dramatic, but you have to wrap up your personal business, and move to Geneva. In Moore’s case, as a New Zealand legislator and a Labour party loyalist, there were special considerations: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;“My duty was clear: ensure my local party had a good choice of candidates because the seat was not safe for a newcomer ... I gave my last speech in Parliament and to the party caucus…

I left Parliament and New Zealand, ensuring my resignation was timed so I didn’t double-dip salaries and that there wouldn’t be a by-election just before a general election, which could have made my replacement vulnerable. As usual, I left Yvonne with all the problems of shifting base and trying to sell our home…

I arrived in Geneva a week before my contract started, stayed in a local hotel, and began to try and put things together for the WTO’s now notorious Ministerial at Seattle in November 1999..." &lt;/i&gt;(pages 95-96) &lt;/ul&gt;Moving may have been complicated for Moore, although he doesn’t say so, to the extent that his family’s savings had been depleted in the selection contest: “My wife Yvonne and I had spent our modest savings.” (page 95)

Moore was selected for Director General in an acrimonious selection process. In fact, the WTO failed to reach a clear-cut decision, and the six year term was divided equally between Moore and the former Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister of Thailand, Supachai Panitchpakdi. Moore got the first three years.

Miles Kahler describes the 1999 selection process on pages 62 to 72 of his book, &lt;a href="”http://www.iie.com/publications/chapters_preview/339/3iie3357.pdf”"&gt;”Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals”&lt;/a&gt; (this is available for reading on the Web; go to the chapter titled "Diagnosis: Selection At the World Trade Organization).

The divisive selection process created a need to engage the other side; the three year terms created an ambiguity about Moore’s status that needed to be resolved: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;”My first step was to try and reach out to those who were my opponents. On the first day I rang the Thai Ambassador, suggesting an early meeting. He refused to meet me until the following week when I was formally the Director-General (DG). I told him: ‘Fine, I will be able to fit you in, in a month’s time.’ He compromised, but said he wouldn’t meet me in the DG’s office. I agreed, but had to refuse his suggestion that I have a photograph taken with Supachai on my first day. There can be, I explained, only one DG at a time and I would be professional and ensure the transition, three years later, was clean, clear and proper; a duty I believed I carried out correctly and professionally.”&lt;/i&gt;(96)&lt;/ul&gt;The next rung down from the Director-General are four Deputies. Selection involves identifying the people with appropriate skill sets, looking for geographical balance, and accounting for commitments made during the bargaining process for the DG.

Kahler suggests that these commitments loomed large in the 1998-99 selection process for Deputy Directors General ("It seemed hardly accidental that the four deputy directors general appointed by Moore in November 1999 represented key parts of his coalition...The large emerging-markets that had formed the core of the Supachai coalition were notably missing..." (page 72)).
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Selecting my Deputy Directors-General (DDGs) was a revelation. Dozens of ambassadors wanted to press their candidates on me, which is fair enough, but exceedingly time consuming. How can you say ‘No’ to thirty ambassadors, many of whom say they have been instructed by their Presidents and Ministers to make a submission and push their favorite.

I was determined to have a balance and ensure that Africa had its first DDG. I think I selected a good team, with complementary skills and experiences. Andy Stoler from the USA was a tough, professional public servant, who got the most difficult work. He was to be the Minister of Finance. Every organisation needs a dedicated bastard, I told Andy, and that was his job. He also has a strong social conscience, which he diplomatically keeps well hidden. Paul-Henri Ravier is a classic French bureaucrat, in the best sense of the word, whose memos are masterpieces. I asked him to write me one-page notes, as though I was fourteen – he responded with missives that would have got through to a ten-year old. He intimately understood the myriad details that escaped me. Miguel Rodriguez Mendoza, a former Minister of State and President of the Institute of Foreign Trade for Venezuela, was a technocrat who knew the subjects and had mastered the minutiae. And Ablassé Ouedraogo, a former Foreign Minister of Burkino Faso, had excellent contacts throughout Africa and access to the development agencies.

This proved invaluable in building coalitions and budgets, especially as I began to refocus the WTO to emphasise the Development Agenda.

Unfortunately, I didn’t have time to bring the DDGs on board ahead of the Seattle conference. They had never met as a group until we assembled in the USA, and I was unable to lean on their strengths beforehand...” &lt;/i&gt;(96-97)&lt;/ul&gt;And then you have to learn the organizational culture, and what opportunities you have adapt the organization to your working habits and needs: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;”Reforming multilateral agencies is much easier said than done, as I quickly discovered when I took up office. Here are some examples. When I arrived in Geneva, I wanted to have my four DDGs close by, on the same floor. I wanted to be able to drop in to their offices to seek advice. I’m used to a cabinet system and enjoy and benefit from a collective input. My DDGs had the skills, experience, knowledge and mastery of complicated details that I did not have at the time. A simple proposition, I thought. What I learnt was instructive of the manner in which the WTO and international institutions operate.

The problem, I was solemnly advised, was that Andy Stoler, the US DDG, had a four-window office. If the others were to join us on our floor, they would have to suffer smaller, three-window offices. Given my New Zealand experience, where protocol doesn’t exist, I couldn’t take this advice seriously. Easy, I replied, let’s paint over one of Andy’s windows.

Staff scolded me, saying this was a very important issue; I wasn’t taking this ‘problem’ seriously. It was pointed out that at another major institution in Geneva, a similar problem emerged with one DDG having a toilet and shower, a profound privilege that other DDGs in that organization didn’t share. ‘Don’t tell me,” I replied. ‘They bricked out the toilet and shower to make than all equal!’ ‘Yes,' came the reply.

Then divisional staff responsible to DDGs lobbied, suggesting that they needed to be close to their respective DDGs, whom I, in vain, wanted to rename Executive Deputies, with Divisional Directors becoming Divisional Managers. Another clash of cultures. I lost. Round One to the bureaucrats and the system...&lt;/i&gt;&lt;i&gt;”&lt;/i&gt;(pages 116-117)&lt;/ul&gt;In Moore’s case, the opportunity to make changes was severely constrained by the need to prepare for a meeting of member-state trade ministers in Seattle – scheduled to begin on November 30 – about 12 weeks after his term began. Perhaps this is also a reference to the work necessary for the Doha meeting in Qatar as well. &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;”In the end, I simply didn’t have the time or resources to overcome bureaucratic resistance, while also trying to get the new Round launched…”&lt;/i&gt;(page 118)&lt;/ul&gt;The Seattle meetings were meant to lay the groundwork for, and initiate, a new round of trade negotiations. As it happened, pre-meeting planning and groundwork were not done very well, and the negotiations failed.

The planning failed, in part, because of the length and controversy of the 1998-1999 DG selection process. That process was originally expected to produce a selection in November 1998, to fill a position that would become open on May 1, 1999. As noted above, the process only ended in late July 1999. The previous DG, Renato Ruggiero had left when his term ended on April 30, 1999. So, from May 1 to September 1 the DG position was not filled. Then Moore only had 12 weeks to pull things together.

Sources: Moore, Mike. &lt;i&gt;A World Without Walls&lt;/i&gt;. Cambridge University Press. 2003; Kahler, Miles. &lt;i&gt;Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals&lt;/i&gt;. Institute for International Economics. 2001.</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110892239990960126" rel="service.edit" title="The NGOs' New Influence" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-21T07:00:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-24T08:44:45Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-20T17:59:59Z</created>
<link href="#110892239990960126" rel="alternate" title="The NGOs' New Influence" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The NGOs' New Influence</title>
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<b>The NGOs' New Influence</b>

On January 26, the candidates for WTO Director General made presentations to the General Council of the WTO. Afterwards, three of them participated in a question and answer "public hearing" with a variety of NGOs. (here are the <a href="http://www.tradeobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=48511">meeting minutes</a>)

Evelyn Iritani, writing in the <i>L.A. Times</i> about the new influence of NGOs, treats this public hearing as exhibit one in her case: <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fi-advocacy20feb20,1,3462083.story?coll=la-headlines-politics&amp;ctrack=1&amp;cset=true">From the Streets to the Inner Sanctum</a> (registration required). <ul>
<i>"Unhappy over the World Trade Organization's refusal to discuss contentious labor issues at its 1999 meeting in Seattle, activist Mike Waghorne joined tens of thousands of protesters on the streets. The demonstrations, which turned violent, sparked anti-globalization protests around the world.

Nearly six years later, Waghorne is still unhappy with the Geneva-based trade group. But now he can voice his displeasure from a much more comfortable perch.

Waghorne was among 70 outsiders given the chance to grill three candidates last month for the position of WTO director general. It marked the first time in the organization's 10-year history that activists were allowed to have input in the selection process, an event that Waghorne, an officer with labor coalition Public Services International, described as "civil" and a far cry from the fireworks he had expected.

Once relegated to the streets and hallways, social and environmental activists like Waghorne are finding these days that businesses and trade officials are receptive to their concerns. Activists are prompting changes in corporate practices or trade policy, in some cases partnering with their former targets. Representatives of Amnesty International and other groups were even invited into the proceedings of the World Economic Forum last month in Davos, Switzerland..."</i>
</ul>
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</entry>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-02-20T14:59:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-21T08:05:30Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-21T00:05:43Z</created>
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<b>Amazed by 19th Century Progress</b>

I'm often startled to think how far technology has come in the lifetimes of people I've known. People felt the same way in the industrial revolution of the 19th Century.

According to John Steele Gordon, young George Templeton Strong was impressed with technological change to 1839 : <ul>
<i>"...the railroads simply thrilled the people of the day, who sensed immediately that they were in a new era, one beyond the comprehension of earlier times. "It's a great sight to see a large train get underway," nineteen-year-old George Templeton Strong wrote in his diary in 1839. "I know of nothing that would more strongly impress our great-great grandfathers with an idea of their descendent's progress in science...Just imagine such a concern rushing unexpectedly by a stranger to the invention on a dark night, whizzing and rattling and panting, with its fiery furnace gleaming in front, its chimney vomiting fiery smoke above, and its long train of cars rushing along behind like the body and tail of a gigantic dragon - or like the devil himself - and all darting forward at the rate of twenty miles an hour, Whew!"</i>
</ul>Strong wants to show Ben Franklin a railroad train; I'd like to have him with me as my plane descends into Seattle on a clear day.  He can have the window seat.

Philip Hone had more reservations about technological change: <ul>
<i>"But it also induced a sense of misgiving and unease, especially in the older generation. By 1844 Philip Hone, forty years older than Strong, wrote, "This world is going too fast. Improvements, politics, reform, religion - all fly. Railroads, steamers, packets, race against time and beat it hollow...Oh, for the good old days of heavy post coaches and speed at the rate of six miles an hour!" "</i>
</ul>(John Steele Gordon, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060093625/qid=1108962052/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/104-0655084-9016739">
<i>An Empire of Wealth</i>
</a>, 2004. Page 151)</div>
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<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-20T14:17:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-21T01:28:37Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-20T23:28:39Z</created>
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<b>Lower Manhattan, Dusk, September 4, 1882</b>

Can you imagine watching the lights come on?

<ul>
<i>"Edison's other unsung invention was the electric power system by which his lightbulb could be lit. Once the lightbulb was a working invention, he set about to build a generating plant and lay electric lines in a one-square-mile of the Manhattan business district. In 1880 he secured from the city the right to "lay tubes, wires, conductors and insulation, and to erect lamp-posts within the lines of the streets and avenues, parks and public places of the City of New York, for conveying and using electricity or electrical currents for purposes of illumination."

Edison build the world's first power plant on Pearl Street and installed six of the largest dynamos yet built, weighing thirty tons each. Working at night so as not to make New York City's traffic any worse than it already was, he dug trenches for his electric mains, which totaled fifteen miles in length, and sent out crews to wire up houses and stores whose owners were willing to sign up for the new service.

As with any new techology, Edison had to devise solutions on the fly to endless problems that had not been thought of until they arose. One problem was that if there was a leakage of current under the pavement, horses would conduct it through their shoes and panic. many of Edison's on-the-fly solutions were patentable, and he applied for no fewer than 102 patents in 1882, the most in any one year, as he was building his system.

Finally, at 3 PM on September 4, 1882, Edison, standing in J.P. Morgan's office, closed the circuit, and 106 lamps came on in the offices of Drexel, Morgan and Company. More came on at the <u>New York Times</u>, which had also signed up as an Edison customer, and in shops along Fulton Street. They didn't make much impression in daylight, But by that evening it was obvious that something important had happened. The next day the <u>New York Herald</u> reported that "in stores and business places throughout the lower quarters of the city there was a strange glow last night. The dim flicker of gas, often subdued and debilitated by grim and uncleanly globes, was supplanted by a steady glare, bright and mellow, which illuminated interiors and shone through windows fixed and unwavering."</i>
</ul>(From Gordon's <i>An Empire of Wealth</i>, 2004, pages 302-303).

Earth-shaking events should be noisy and dramatic. Here, the sun just set quietly, and the lighting just gradually became more noticable.</div>
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</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110893889250776332" rel="service.edit" title="19th Century IT" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-20T13:33:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-20T23:13:23Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-20T22:34:52Z</created>
<link href="#110893889250776332" rel="alternate" title="19th Century IT" type="text/html"/>
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<b>19th Century IT</b>

Remember computer punch cards? John Steele Gordon describes their origins: <ul>
<i>"As governments and businesses grew in size and came to rely on ever more statistics, the need to speed up the processing of data became acute. The 1880 United States census, tabulated by hand, required seven years of mind-numbing work to complete. To help with the next census, a young mining engineer and statistician named Herman Hollerith devised a solution based in part on the eighteenth-century <a href="http://www.deutsches-museum.de/ausstell/meister/e_web.htm">Jacquard loom</a>, which had allowed the machine weaving of complicated cloth patterns. Hollerith's device used punch cards with holes. When a needle pass through a hole, it completed an electrical circuit by dipping into a tiny cup of mercury, and a counter clicked upward.

Hollerith's device was able to tabulate the data on puch cards at the rate of a thousand cards an hour, and the sixty-two million cards generated by the 1890 census were processed in only six months. (Ironically, a fire in 1921 destroyed the database of the 1890 census, and while the totals are known, almost all the individual data are lost.) Hollerith formed a company that merged with two other companies and in 1924 changed its name to the International Business Machine Corporation, IBM for short."</i>
</ul>(Gordon, <i>An Empire of Wealth</i>, his new popular economic history of the U.S., pages 406-407). For more details on the history of this technology try Douglas Jones' web page, <a href="http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/cards/">"Punched Cards"</a> , or Mark Howell's page, <a href="http://www.oz.net/~markhow/writing/holl.htm">"High Tech in the '90s - The 1890 Census "</a>.

Add this to other parts of the 19th Century IT revolution, on which I posted, here: <a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2004_04_01_archive.html#108122991694703658">"The IT Revolution (the 19th Century IT Revolution)"</a>
</div>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110879290664065725" rel="service.edit" title="Amateur Astronomers Lose an Old Friend" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-18T20:53:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-20T01:19:39Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-19T06:01:46Z</created>
<link href="#110879290664065725" rel="alternate" title="Amateur Astronomers Lose an Old Friend" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Amateur Astronomers Lose an Old Friend</title>
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<b>Amateur Astronomers Lose an Old Friend</b>

Kodak's slide projector falls victim to technological change.  In among the obituaries, in the March issue of <i>Sky &amp; Telescope</i>, Edwin Aguirre writes: <ul>
<i>"There has been another death in the Eastman Kodak family. Only months after announcing that the company...would cease production of its popular black-and-white astrophotography film...Kodak rolled the last of its 35-millimeter slide projectors off the assembly line on October 22nd. The end had been expected since September 2003, when the company announced that it would stop making and selling projectors due to declining sales.

During its heyday from the 1960s to the 1980s, it was the principal means for amateurs to share their astrophotos and give lectures at club meetings, conventions, public star parties, and planetarium shows. This was before digital imaging, personal Web sites, and Microsoft's <u>PowerPoint</u> software gained widespread popularity. The venerable projector just couldn't keep up with the rapidly evolving, computer-driven multimedia technology. However, Kodak says that it will "continue to provide service and support for slide projectors through June 2011. It has no plans to "discontinue any color slide films at this time.

Kodak debuted its slide projectors in the mid-1930s, and its innovative carousel-tray loading system introduced in the early 1960s made possible complex, multiprojector audiovisual presentations. The company estimates that is has sold around 15 million units worldwide during the projector's nearly seven-decade-long production run..."</i>
</ul>
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<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-18T20:35:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-19T06:06:42Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-19T05:35:49Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Should airlines be required to compensate customers for delays?</title>
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<b>Should Airlines be Required to Compensate Customers for Delays?</b>

<a href="http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/archives/001066.php">"If people are happy to carry the risk of cancellation in return for cheaper fares, why shouldn't they have that option?"</a>  (Dr. Eamonn Butler at the <i>Adam Smith Institute Blog</i> - "Compensation for air delays").</div>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110871181340848775" rel="service.edit" title="Bhagwati Separates WTO Critique Wheat and Chaff" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-17T22:30:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-18T07:48:33Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-18T07:30:13Z</created>
<link href="#110871181340848775" rel="alternate" title="Bhagwati Separates WTO Critique Wheat and Chaff" type="text/html"/>
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<b>Bhagwati Separates WTO Critique Wheat and Chaff</b>

Jagdish Bhagwati tries to separate the wheat from the chaff in the critiques of the WTO, in a <i>Far Eastern Economic Review</i> essay.

Dingel, at <i>Exploit the Worker</i>, links to, abstracts from, and critiques the article: <a href="http://www.exploittheworker.com/exploit/archives/000180.html">"New Bhagwati Article: WTO Is Off Track"</a>.</div>
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<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-16T20:56:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-17T05:57:48Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-17T05:56:59Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Company Store Wasn't So Bad</title>
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<b>The Company Store Wasn't So Bad</b>

Joshua Hall reports on research by Price Fishback, over at <i>Division of Labour</i>: <a href="http://divisionoflabour.com/archives/000718.php">"Did Miners 'Owe Their Souls To The Company Store?' "</a>
</div>
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<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-16T20:22:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-17T05:35:09Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-17T05:22:10Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Blustein's Book Reviewed</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Blustein's Book Reviewed&lt;/b&gt;

Allen Beattie reviews Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine financial crisis (&lt;a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1586482459/qid=1108617963/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-0655084-9016739?v=glance&amp;s=books"&gt;&lt;i&gt;And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out): Wall Street, the IMF, and the Bankrupting of Argentina &lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;) in today's &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt;: &lt;a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f78c7c58-804b-11d9-bd50-00000e2511c8.html"&gt;"The debt crisis that has taught lenders nothing"&lt;/a&gt; (subscription required)

The book gets a good review - it provides the "forensic examination" the Argentine crisis deserves; as "readable" as his book on the Asian crisis; "he reconstructs the riveting narrative"; provides more discussion of policy implications than the Asian book.

Among other take-aways - it wasn't a failure of the &lt;a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/williamson1102.htm"&gt;Washington consensus&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"...the familiar criticism of the IMF's actions - that it capriciously imposed fundamentalist free-market policies on Argentina and abandoned it to chaos when they failed - is 180 degrees in the wrong direction. The IMF, wisely as it turned out, was initially suspicious of the dollar peg currency regime that Argentina adopted in 1991 and which proved the country's undoing. But the fund became impressed by the peg's early success in reducing inflation, entranced by Argentina's dynamic but ultimately dangerous finance minister Domingo Cavallo, and breathlessly enthusiastic about the (somewhat botched) privatisation and liberalisation programme of the 1990s.

Accordingly, it suppressed its misgivings about Argentina's inability to balance its budget and its consequent need to borrow dollars from the global capital markets at ever-higher rates to back the dollar peg. Far from imposing the "Washington Consensus" (the first component of which, let us recall, is fiscal discipline) on Argentina, the IMF was fatally complicit in its violation. As the crisis deepened in 2000 and 2001, the fund was so keen to avoid blame for pulling the plug that it continued to lend until all hope was extinguished."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Bottom line: &lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The crisis was not primarily made in Washington. Blustein finds the real culprits in Buenos Aires and New York: the Argentines who peddled a falsely glowing vision of their country's economic renewal and the herd-like investors who believed the story or simply tracked the index of emerging debt."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110784214273397536" rel="service.edit" title="The Making of the WTO DG, 2005, #2" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-15T23:02:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-16T17:57:01Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-08T05:55:42Z</created>
<link href="#110784214273397536" rel="alternate" title="The Making of the WTO DG, 2005, #2" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110784214273397536</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Making of the WTO DG, 2005, #2</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;The Making of the WTO Director-General, 2005, #2&lt;/b&gt;

This post updates a January 24 collection of links on the WTO Director-General (DG) selection process: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110642245784203181"&gt;"The Making of the WTO Director-General, 2005 "&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;What does it matter&lt;/u&gt;

I didn't have this topic heading in January. I'll accumulate "so what" posts here. Why does free trade matter? Why does the WTO matter to free trade? Why does the DG matter to the WTO? What about the General Council Chair?

Here's a first installment - Pascal Lamy's articulate explanation of what the DG does: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110724104819331639"&gt;"What does the Director-General of the WTO do?"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;How are Directors-General chosen?&lt;/u&gt;

This post links to the WTO DG selection rules, and to a newspaper article providing a summary description of the process: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110654655479310038"&gt;"The Rules for Choosing a Director-General of the WTO"&lt;/a&gt;.

Miles Kahler critiques the methods used to choose leaders at the World Bank, IMF, and the WTO in the Institute for International Economics book, &lt;a href="http://216.134.221.13/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Product_Code=339"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. The chapters can be read (but cannot be downloaded) online. I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;.

A Claude Barfield Financial Times column, arguing that a WTO DG should have considerable political stature, at the former head-of-state level, was the subject of this post: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110842102865486976"&gt;"What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;Early Maneuvering&lt;/u&gt;

Nominations had to be made by December 31. But the race began before then. Who might have been in? Why did some drop out while other stayed in?

Early on, Jagdish Bhagwati suggested, in the Jan/Feb 2004 &lt;i&gt;Foreign Affairs&lt;/i&gt;, that the South African Trade Minister Alex Erwin was considered a leading contender. Bhagwati's article was titled : &lt;a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040101faessay83106/jagdish-n-bhagwati/don-t-cry-for-canc-n.html"&gt;"Don't Cry for Cancún"&lt;/a&gt;. "...Alec Erwin, South Africa's trade minister and a favorite to become the next director-general of the WTO..." This was &lt;a href="http://www.tralac.org/scripts/content.php?id=2373"&gt;quickly denied&lt;/a&gt;.

A lot of people thought about running for DG: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110620410572981590"&gt;"People who might have run for WTO Director-General, but did not"&lt;/a&gt;. In October, Brazilian and Uruguayan representatives met in Montevideo, without reaching joint agreement on a Latin American candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110620422860461123"&gt;"Why are there two Latin Americans in the WTO race?"&lt;/a&gt;. In December, Kenyan Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi almost entered the race: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110542400560707059"&gt;"There was another candidate"&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;And then there were four&lt;/u&gt;

When the sun came up on January 1, there were four candidates. Felipe Seixas Corrêa of Brazil, Carlos Pérez del Castillo of Uruguay, Pascal Lamy of France, and Jaya Krishna Cuttaree of Mauritius. Who are these men? What strengths and weaknesses do they bring to this office?

This Jan 2 survey post linked to pages with biographical information on each candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110465471209183559"&gt;"Race for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;. The &lt;i&gt;Economist&lt;/i&gt; also surveyed the four candidates on January 7: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110514534871717492"&gt;"The Race for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;.

Here is a report of an interview with Mauritius Foreign Minister Jayakrishna Cuttaree: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110611114075743430"&gt;"Jayakrishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt;. Here is a post on a &lt;i&gt;Financial Times&lt;/i&gt; column that discussed Pascal Lamy: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110550661729403820"&gt;"The pros and cons of Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;.

Alan Oxley, former Australian Ambassador to the GATT explains: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110611044830814105"&gt;"What's Wrong With Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. Peter Gallagher, an Australian trade consultant, discussed Pérez del Castillo and Lamy: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110629090793665535"&gt;"Advice on who to pick as the next WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;. Both Oxley's column and Gallagher's post offer much more.

Michael C. Boyer, James G. Forsyth, Jai Singh survey the four candidates, and their chances, in the February 2005 issue of &lt;i&gt;Foreign Policy&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2776.php?PHPSESSID=5e9548d7ace88078f6eb4140abd3836b"&gt;"Who Gets to Run the WTO?"&lt;/a&gt;. Very good. I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;The race itself&lt;/u&gt;

How do you campaign to be Director-General of the WTO? Mike Moore, a former Prime Minister of New Zealand, was DG from 1999 to 2002. He described his race for DG in his 2003 book on the WTO, &lt;i&gt;A World Without Walls&lt;/i&gt;. This post has an extract from the book, describing the race: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110636460804366550"&gt;"What's it like to run for WTO Director-General"&lt;/a&gt;.

Mauritius sought support among the Indian diaspora for its candidate: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110663700162057839"&gt;"Cuttaree plays the ethnic card"&lt;/a&gt;.

Uruguayan Pérez del Castillo traveled to Australia to meet with the trade minister there: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110533675312008895"&gt;"What will Australia do?”&lt;/a&gt;.

Brazilian Felipe Seixas Corrêa traveled to South Africa – another G-20 member: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110550852945086397"&gt;"The Brazilian visits South Africa"&lt;/a&gt;. South African news reports suggested that South Africa was torn between its G-22 ties with Brazil and its connections with other African countries. This faced it with a choice, described in the post &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110667124913273528"&gt;"Seixas Corrêa, or Cuttaree?"&lt;/a&gt;.

The selection rules call for the presentation of the candidates to the General Council soon after the nominations end. In 2005, this presentation takes place on Wednesday, January 26: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110647075386601675"&gt;"This Wednesday’s WTO General Council meeting"&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110621007045955024"&gt;"The next step in the WTO race"&lt;/a&gt;. A group of NGOs is taking advantage of the General Council meeting to schedule its own "public hearing" with the candidates on the evening of January 26: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110637747185309402"&gt;"Public Hearing for WTO Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;. And another post: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110670920479670976"&gt;"Meet the WTO Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.

Once the presentations were completed, the texts were posted to the WTO website, and there was a spate of stories: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110675994320359518"&gt;"WTO DG Candidates Address the General Council"&lt;/a&gt;. In a first, three of the candidates answered questions at an NGO sponsored "public hearing" on January 26. Here is a transcript: &lt;a href="http://www.tradeobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=48511"&gt;"Minutes of Civil Society Hearing for WTO Director-General Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;i&gt;Newsweek&lt;/i&gt; interviewed Pascal Lamy in late January: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110707188533023763"&gt;"&lt;i&gt;Newsweek&lt;/i&gt; Interviews Pascal Lamy"&lt;/a&gt;. Here is a February article on Lamy based on German sources: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110765421367086930"&gt;"Does Pascal Lamy have a good chance?"&lt;/a&gt;.

In early February, the Australians came down in favor of Carlos Pérez del Castillo. Stories a few days before tied Australia's selection decision (which was said to be between Pérez del Castillo and EU candidate Lamy) to recent EU decisions on wheat subsidies &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110706123503730488"&gt;"Which Candidate Will the Australian's Choose?"&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110759109401484670"&gt;"The Australians Opt for Pérez del Castillo"&lt;/a&gt;.

This post links to a set of stories on Pérez del Castillo's claims about the division of Latin American support between himself and Seixas Corrêa: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110765392876319981"&gt;"Latins for Pérez del Castillo"&lt;/a&gt;.

This post links to and quotes from an Indian column surveying the candidate-set from the Indian point-of-view: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110775812550177361"&gt;"An Indian View of the WTO-DG Candidates"&lt;/a&gt;.

Cuttaree campaigns with a web site: &lt;a href="http://www.jcuttaree.mu"&gt;"Jaya Krishna Cuttaree"&lt;/a&gt;. I learned about this from &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;Daniel Drezner&lt;/a&gt;.


&lt;u&gt;The Choice&lt;/u&gt;

How was the selection ultimately made?


&lt;u&gt;The Transition&lt;/u&gt;

What is involved in settling in to the office?

&lt;i&gt;Last updated February 15, 2005; revised February 16&lt;/i&gt;</content>
</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110853382557113978" rel="service.edit" title="Dan Drezer WTO DG post" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-15T21:03:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-16T17:50:37Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-16T06:03:45Z</created>
<link href="#110853382557113978" rel="alternate" title="Dan Drezer WTO DG post" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110853382557113978</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Dan Drezer WTO DG post</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Dan Drezner WTO DG Post&lt;/b&gt;

Drezer takes time off from following the World Bank race, to post on the selection of the World Trade Organization Director-General: &lt;a href="http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001893.html"&gt;"Handicapping the race for the WTO leadership"&lt;/a&gt;

See especially the link to a &lt;i&gt;Foreign Policy&lt;/i&gt; story on the strengths and weaknesses of the four candidates, and a link to Mauritian Foreign Minister Cuttaree's campaign web page.

For background on the political economy of this type of race, Drezner recommends Miles Kahler's &lt;a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?tag=daniewdrezn-20&amp;path=tg/detail/-/0881323357/qid=1108486235/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/?v=glance&amp;amp;s=books&amp;n=507846"&gt;Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals&lt;/a&gt; (Amazon link).

&lt;i&gt;Revised February 16 to note that Kahler chapters cannot be downloaded)&lt;/i&gt;

This book is also available at the Institute for International Economics website, where the chapters can be read (but not downloaded) individually: &lt;a href="http://216.134.221.13/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;amp;Product_Code=339"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Leadership Selection in the Major Multilaterals&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. Kahler has chapters on leadership selection at the World Bank and IMF, and at the WTO. Looks good.</content>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110841784478204427" rel="service.edit" title="Alexander Hamilton" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-14T23:53:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-15T09:06:11Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-14T21:50:44Z</created>
<link href="#110841784478204427" rel="alternate" title="Alexander Hamilton" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Alexander Hamilton</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;&lt;a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Hamilton"&gt;Alexander Hamilton&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;

Adapting &lt;a href="http://www.casualhacker.net/tom.lehrer/the_year.html#alma"&gt;Tom Lehrer's rueful joke comparing himself to Mozart&lt;/a&gt;: "By the time Alexander Hamilton was my age, he had been dead for four years." Among other things, during his 49 years, Hamilton:
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;was a key aide to General Washington from 1777 to 1781&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;led a crucial bayonet attack on a key British redoubt at Yorktown&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;built up a leading law practice in post-revolutionary New York&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;was a New York commissioner to the Annapolis conference (which laid the groundwork for the constitutional convention) &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;was a delegate to the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention in 1787&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;wrote most of the &lt;i&gt;Federalist Papers&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;led an uphill fight for ratification of the Constitution by New York State&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;served as the first Treasury Secretary of the United States from 1789 to 1795&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;established the Customs Service&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;established the Revenue Cutter Service (later the U.S. Coast Guard)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;maintained a system of U.S. lighthouses and navigational aids&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;wrote many important state papers, including &lt;i&gt;Report on the Public Credit&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;Report on a National Bank&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;Report on the Subject of Manufactures&lt;/i&gt;, and the &lt;i&gt;Opinion on the Consitutionality of a National Bank&lt;/i&gt; (and played a crucial role in drafting Washington's &lt;i&gt;Farewell Address&lt;/i&gt;)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;arranged for funding the national debt&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;arranged for the federal assumption of the state debts&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;established the first bank of the United States&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;drove James Madison and Thomas Jefferson, and their minions, nuts&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;provoked and suppressed the Wiskey Rebellion&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;was the subject of the first important U.S. sex scandal&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;had the good sense to fall in love with and marry Elizabeth Schuyler&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;helped raise their eight children&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;The public accomplishments I've described all came in the 19 years between 1777 and 1795. He left the Treasury in 1795,when he was only about 40.

It's all in Ron Chernow's excellent book, &lt;a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1594200092/qid=1108451312/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-0655084-9016739?v=glance&amp;s=books&amp;amp;n=507846"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Alexander Hamilton&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/li&gt;. Chernow's book is reviewed by blogger Pejman Yousefzadeh, here: &lt;a href="http://www.pejmanesque.com/archives/009373.html"&gt;"Book Review--&lt;i&gt;Alexander Hamilton&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt; .

You may also be interested in the Library of America volume on Hamilton: &lt;a href="http://www.loa.org/volume.jsp?RequestID=175"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Hamilton. Writings.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;</content>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110842102865486976" rel="service.edit" title="What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-14T16:30:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-15T02:50:06Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-14T22:43:48Z</created>
<link href="#110842102865486976" rel="alternate" title="What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?</title>
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<b>What Should We Look For In a WTO DG?</b>

Claude Barfield thinks that the four candidates for Director-General (DG) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are all "distinguished and able diplomats and negotiators." He doesn't think they have the requisite stature to advance the world trade agenda. A different type of candidate is needed, he argues in today's <i>Financial Times</i> : <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b00e5310-7ebb-11d9-9c86-00000e2511c8.html">"Cause of world trade demands a powerful patron"</a> . (subscription required)

Diplomats were Ok in a simpler time, when the world's trade rules were negotiated among a small group of developed countries, the rules did not interact as closely with domestic "financial and telecommunications regulations, intellectual property rules, health and safety measures, taxation and the environment" concerns, and did not attract the attention of such a wide range of interest groups.

Barfield thinks the world needs a stronger DG position, filled with candidates with more political (rather than technical) credibility. Following the political scientists Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, he'd like to see "...effective politicians linking organisations to constituencies" chosen for the DG position.

What sort of a person would fill the bill: <ul>
<i>"If the director-general is to be granted increased authority and stature, the bar must be set higher in terms of personal background and qualifications. The ideal candidate would be a current or former elected head of state, from at least a mid-sized developing democracy. There is such a candidate waiting in the wings - Ernesto Zedillo, the former president of Mexico. In addition to expertise in trade matters, Mr Zedillo's political credentials are impeccable: he guided Mexico through the difficult economic debacle that he inherited from his predecessor without reverting to traditional protectionism. More important, he presided over the first successful transfer of democratic authority to an opposition party.

If one wanted truly to jolt the system, there is Bill Clinton. Whatever the judgment of his US presidency overall, he has proved to be a defender of free trade, even against the dominant trends in his own party, and he retains a towering respect and influence in international circles, particularly among developing countries..."</i>
</ul>
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</content>
</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110807590367879150" rel="service.edit" title="The Hurricane Economics Posts Are Starting" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-10T23:00:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-11T07:57:51Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-10T22:51:43Z</created>
<link href="#110807590367879150" rel="alternate" title="The Hurricane Economics Posts Are Starting" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The Hurricane Economics Posts Are Starting</title>
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<b>The Hurricane Economics Posts Are Starting</b>

We're still about three and a half months from the (Atlantic) hurricane season. This runs from <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">June 1 through November 30</a>. But the hurricane economics posts have started already.

This one, from Steve Verdon at <i>Outside the Beltway</i> is on a topic I hadn't seen before: <a href="http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/9203">"Hurricanes and Distributed Generation"</a> .</div>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110810373937480671" rel="service.edit" title="Should the U.S. leave the WTO?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-10T22:44:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-11T07:53:16Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-11T06:35:39Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Should the U.S. leave the WTO?</title>
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<b>Should the U.S. leave the WTO?</b>

Here's another potential bump in the road to the meeting of WTO trade ministers in Hong Kong this December, and the completion of the Doha Round of trade negotiations in 2006:

Jeffrey Schott, in his essay, <a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/chapters_preview/388/8iie3802.pdf">"Confronting Current Challenges to U.S. Trade Policy"</a> writes that this year, Congress
<ul>
<i>"...will likely be required to take another trade vote on a resolution to withdraw from the WTO. Section 125 of the Uruguay Round Agreements Act of 1994 requires the president to report to Congress every five years on the costs and benefits of US participation in the WTO. After receipt of the president's report, both houses of Congress have 90 days to vote on a joint resolution calling for the withdrawal of US membership in the world trade body. If adopted, the withdrawal resolution is subject to presidential veto, in which case Congress has an additional 15 days to override the veto. The first WTO withdrawl vote took place in June 2000; the withdrawal resolution was rejected by a vote of 35 to 0 by the House Ways and Means Committee, and by 363 to 56 by the full House...</i>
</ul>
<ul>
<i/>
</ul>
<ul>
<i>The timing of the vote will depend on when the president issues his report on US participation in the WTO. Since the second five-year period ends on December 31, 2004, the report presumably should be presented in early 2005 after the new Congress convenes, with the prospective vote on the withdraw resolution in late spring..."</i>
</ul>Schott speculates that a vote "could be more contested" this year. In part, he says, because of the publicity given to a series of trade cases the US has before the WTO. Actually, our record before the WTO hasn't been all that bad. Schott has a nice table (8.2) summarizing the US record in WTO dispute resolution cases. From 1995 to 2004 we appeared as a complaintant in 71 cases, of the 48 that have been won or lost, we won, or won on core issues (according to the USTR), in 44; we lost four. The US appeared as a respondent in 72 cases. Of the 49 that have been decided, we won, or won on core issues, in 24; we lost in 25.

It is hard to imagine that Congress would take us out of the WTO. It is easier to see opportunities for grandstanding and posturing, and Schott suggests the potential for the diversion of USTR office energy and time from Doha negotiations to servicing a Congressional debate. Schott also notes "defeating the resolution also could be costly if it requires acceptance of new negotiating constraints or other types of political side payments."

Schott's essay appears in a new book from the Institute for International Economics (edited by Fred Bergsten), <a href="http://bookstore.iie.com/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Product_Code=388">
<i>The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade</i>
</a> . It looks like all the essays can be read online, but they can't be printed out or copied. This post is also based on the Schott essay: <a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/2005_02_01_archive.html#110793076547784156">"Renewal of the Trade Act of 2002"</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110802152009097620" rel="service.edit" title="The French Army in WWI" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-09T22:45:40-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-10T07:57:40Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-10T07:45:20Z</created>
<link href="#110802152009097620" rel="alternate" title="The French Army in WWI" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110802152009097620</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">The French Army in WWI</title>
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<b>The French Army in WWI</b>

I learned about this archive of color photos of WWI French troops from <a href="http://foreigndispatches.typepad.com/dispatches/2005/02/pictures_from_w.html">Abiola Lapite</a>: <a href="http://www.network54.com/Forum/thread?forumid=211833&amp;messageid=1088370788">Colour World War I Photos</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
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<issued>2005-02-08T21:32:42-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-09T07:56:42Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-09T06:32:45Z</created>
<link href="#110793076547784156" rel="alternate" title="Renewal of the Trade Act of 2002" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Renewal of the Trade Act of 2002</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Renewal of the Trade Act of 2002&lt;/b&gt;&#13;
&#13;
The US Trade Representative is currently negotiating the Doha Round trade agreements under the "fast track" provisions of the Trade Act (TPA) of 2002. Actually "fast track" is an earlier term; the term preferred since 2002 is "trade promotion authority" or TPA.&#13;
&#13;
The fast track provisions are considered crucial to a successful negotiation. This Congressional Research Service issue brief from 2002 gives some background on "fast track": &lt;a href="http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/12409.pdf"&gt;"Trade Promotion Authority (Fast-Track Authority for Trade Agreements): Background and Developments in the 107th Congress"&lt;/a&gt;.&#13;
&#13;
Under the "fast track" or TPA provisions,&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"...Congress agrees to consider legislation to implement the trade agreements (usually nontariff trade agreements) under a procedure with mandatory deadlines, no amendment, and limited debate. The President is required to consult with congressional committees during negotiation and notify Congress at major stages."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;The TPA was not easy to get.  While Bush succeeded in 2002, President Clinton failed in 1998.&#13;
&#13;
Under the Trade Act of 2002, Congress will have to renew the President's negotiating authority in the first half of this year.&#13;
&#13;
Jeffrey Schott writes about TPA renewal in his essay  &lt;a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/chapters_preview/388/8iie3802.pdf"&gt;"Confronting Current Challenges to US Trade Policy" &lt;/a&gt; .  This can be found in the new Institute for International Economics book &lt;a href="http://bookstore.iie.com/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Product_Code=388"&gt;"The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade"&lt;/a&gt;, edited by Fred Bergsten.  Here is Schott's discussion of the extension issue:&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Securing the extension of TPA is the highest priority. &lt;/i&gt;[of several pieces of upcoming trade-related legislation Schott discusses - Ben]&lt;i&gt; The Trade Act of 2002, as amended, provided for a two-year extension of the negotiating authority beyond its expiry on June 30, 2005 - if the president requests it by April 1, 2005, and neither house of Congress disapproves before July 1, 2005...Any member can request a vote to deny the extension of TPA, which could lead to a floor vote if reported out by one of the designated committees.&#13;
&#13;
The last time Congress was confronted with a vote to extend "fast-track" authority was in 1991. That debate focused on the use of fast-track procedures for the prospective negotiation of the NAFTA. Before the vote, congressional leaders demanded and received assurances from the administration that labor and environmental interests would be safeguarded in the NAFTA negotiations. The disapproval resolution was then defeated by 231 to 192 in the House and by 59 to 36 in the Senate...A similar debate could evolve in 2005 with TPA critics demanding either changes in existing provisions of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) or supplementary obligations added to the body of the agreement of labor and the environment, as a condition for extending TPA.&#13;
&#13;
While it would be extremely disruptive for Congress to revoke the administration's negotiating mandate in the midst of ongoing trade talks, it is entirely possible that Congress could add - through separate legislation - new conditions on the use of fast-track implementing procedures. Calls for product-specific exceptions from trade reforms, earmarked spending programs, and stricker trade enforcement provisions will likely flood the congressional debate on TPA extension.&#13;
&#13;
Could US trade policy operate effectively if TPA is not extended? Without TPA, trade initiatives would be implemented through regular legislative procedures. Several sectoral trade pacts plus China's protocol of accession to the WTO passed Congress in the second Clinton administration despite the fact that fast-track authority (renamed TPA in 2002) lapsed in 1994. The rub is that none of those deals required significant change in existing US laws, regulations, or levels of trade protection. Without TPA, other countries probably would be unwilling to commit to reforming their own politically sensitive trade restrictions. Why risk inflaming one's own political constituencies if there is a good chance that Congress will balk at reciprocal liberalization of US barriers, or demand that the negotiations be reopened? At best, US officials would be offered second-best deals; at worst, trade talks would collapse (or never engage), subjecting US negotiators to involuntary retirement."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110789998080213908" rel="service.edit" title="A Neat Digital Clock" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-08T21:29:46-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-09T06:28:46Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-08T21:59:40Z</created>
<link href="#110789998080213908" rel="alternate" title="A Neat Digital Clock" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">A Neat Digital Clock</title>
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<b>A Neat Digital Clock</b>

Robert Lawson, over at <i>Divison of Labour</i> has found a neat digital clock: <a href="http://divisionoflabour.com/archives/000642.php">"Hey pal, do you have the time?"</a>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110789848239802101" rel="service.edit" title="Are Your Blogging Libel Insurance Premiums Paid Up?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-08T21:26:20-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-09T06:26:20Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-08T21:34:42Z</created>
<link href="#110789848239802101" rel="alternate" title="Are Your Blogging Libel Insurance Premiums Paid Up?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110789848239802101</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Are Your Blogging Libel Insurance Premiums Paid Up?</title>
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<b>Are Your Blogging Libel Insurance Premiums Paid Up?</b>

Eugene Volokh posts on <a href="http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2005_02_07.shtml#1107896002">blogging libel liability insurance</a> over at the <i>Volokh Conspiracy</i>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110789567436875341" rel="service.edit" title="A useful activity with a bad name: asset stripping" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-08T09:23:05-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-09T06:23:05Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-08T20:47:54Z</created>
<link href="#110789567436875341" rel="alternate" title="A useful activity with a bad name: asset stripping" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110789567436875341</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">A useful activity with a bad name: asset stripping</title>
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<b>A useful activity with a bad name: asset stripping</b>

Brian Micklethwait defends asset stripping at <i>Samizdata.net</i>: <a href="http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/007223.html">"Asset stripping is good"</a>

I learned about this from the <a href="http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/archives/001043.php">Adam Smith Institute Blog</a>.</div>
</content>
</entry>
<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110788492986955930" rel="service.edit" title="Are we exporting our polluting industries?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-08T09:20:51-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-09T06:20:51Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-08T17:48:49Z</created>
<link href="#110788492986955930" rel="alternate" title="Are we exporting our polluting industries?" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110788492986955930</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Are we exporting our polluting industries?</title>
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<b>Are we exporting our polluting industries?</b>

Have polluting industries from the U.S. migrated overseas to "pollution havens" in developing countries as trade barriers have fallen?

No say Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson, and Jenny Minier in an NBER working paper: <a href="http://www.nber.org/digest/feb05/w10585.html">Does the U.S. Outsource Polluting Industries?</a>.    As reported by Matthew Davis in the most recent <i>NBER Digest</i>:<ul>
<i>"Polluting industries' share of U.S. manufacturing output has declined in recent decades. That is good news for environmental quality in the United States. However, the fact that the decline has coincided with falling trade barriers has given rise to suspicions that the United States has outsourced its polluting industrial processes to developing countries. In Trade Liberalization and Pollution Havens (NBER Working Paper No. 10585), authors Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson, and Jenny Minier ultimately refute the notion that domestic manufacturing is cleaner today because trade agreements have allowed the United States to use "pollution havens" in the developing world to do its dirty work.

"We find no evidence that domestic production of pollution-intensive goods in the U.S. is being replaced by imports from overseas," they state. On one hand, Ederington, Levinson, and Minier understand how the "casual observer" could see a link between lower tariffs and a cleaner U.S. manufacturing sector. After all, while U.S. manufacturing was growing by 51 percent -- even as total emissions of many pollutants were growing at half that rate or actually dropping -- U.S. tariffs were falling dramatically. Between 1978 and 1994, tariffs on manufactured products were reduced 50 percent on average. But if trade liberalization were simply allowing dirty industries to relocate offshore, then the proportion of U.S. imports produced by pollution-intensive industries would rise as tariffs fell. Yet the opposite occurred.

Imports overall grew by 318 percent during the period. But according to World Bank data that characterizes industries by their pollution intensity, imports of goods manufactured in highly polluting processes grew at a much slower rate. In other words, just as the U.S. manufacturing sector was growing while simultaneously shifting toward clean industries, the same thing was happening to our imports: they were rising, but the percentage of goods coming from polluting industries was going down. "The cleaner U.S. manufacturing composition is not offset by dirtier imports," the authors write. "Rather, the composition of imports has also become cleaner."

Importantly, their conclusion holds firm even when they limit the analysis to trade with developing countries. Imports from developing countries grew by 344 percent, but imports of pollution-intensive goods from developing countries grew much more slowly.

Ederington, Levinson, and Minier believe that, if anything, lower tariffs might be actually slowing the U.S. shift to cleaner industries, because imports of goods made from pollution-intensive processes have not kept pace with the overall rise in imports. Thus, surprisingly, one potential environmental consequence of tariff reductions is that U.S. industries are dirtier than they otherwise would be..."</i>
</ul>
</div>
</content>
</entry>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110766941479848742" rel="service.edit" title="Japan's Complaint About U.S. &quot;Zeroing&quot;" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-02-07T20:56:00-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-08T08:36:00Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-06T05:56:54Z</created>
<link href="#110766941479848742" rel="alternate" title="Japan's Complaint About U.S. &quot;Zeroing&quot;" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Japan's Complaint About U.S. "Zeroing"</title>
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<b>Japan's Complaint About U.S. "Zeroing"</b>

<i>Kyodo News</i> reports that Japan has filed a complaint about U.S. anti-dumping rules with the WTO: <a href="http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050204/kyodo/d881q8k00.html">"Japan asks WTO to set up panel on U.S. antidumping method"</a>

"Dumping" occurs when a firm sells goods in a foreign country at prices below those in its home country. Many countries have rules that allow them to impose anti-dumping penalties on firms believed to be dumping. The WTO trade agreements set standards for anti-dumping rules in signatory countries. (<a href="http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm">WTO Anti-dumping gateway</a>)

The Japanese think that U.S. use of "zeroing" violates the WTO standards. "Zeroing" is a method the U.S. uses when determining whether dumping has occurred, and how serious it has been.

Suppose a good is imported from a foreign country into the U.S. in several different varieties - large, medium, and small. To see if the good was being dumped, the U.S. and foreign prices for each variety would be compared. The percentage differences between the prices for each variety would be calculated and the results would be summarized with a weighted average of the three percentages (weighted by the import values). This percentage would be the aggregate dumping margin.

Unless one of the varieties was sold in the U.S. <u>
<i>for more</i>
</u> than it was sold in the home country.

In that case, the percent for that good would be set to zero before the weighted average was calculated. In other words, if some of the varieties were not dumped, the percentages for those that were not dumped would be ignored.  The effect would be to increase the size of the dumping margin, and the likelihood that the firm would be found to be dumping.

Zeroing has been under fire for a while. WTO dispute and appeals reviews have ruled against E.U. zeroing, and U.S. zeroing.  Dan Ikenson of the CATO Institute discusses the status of the WTO decisions as of last April: <a href="http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/FTBs/FTB-011.html">"Zeroing In: Antidumping’s Flawed Methodology under Fire"</a>.

Jay Kraemer and Mark Fajfar bring things up to late November 2004 in this memorandum from the law firm, Fried, Frank: <a href="http://www.ffhsj.com/cmemos/041129_WTO%20Appellate.pdf">"WTO Appellate Body Rules Against U.S. “Zeroing” in Anti-Dumping Calculations"</a>.

Kraemer and Fajfar point out that the the WTO is finding that zeroing <ul>
<i>"...is contrary to Article 2.4.2 of the Anti-Dumping Agreement, which requires that the dumping margin calculation include "all comparable...transactions." In essence, the...[WTO - Ben] found that by excluding non-dumped transactions from the calculation of the weighted average dumping margin...the U.S. method leads to the finding of dumping margings where none exist, or to the finding of higher dumping margins than actually occurred."</i> (pages 1-2)</ul>The Kraemer and Fajfar article is very interesting, summarizing the U.S. arguments. They note that, if the U.S. dropped the zeroing methodology, firms petitioning the Department of Commerce for anti-dumping penalties, would have to think very carefully about how they defined the products they wanted penalized for dumping: <ul>
<i>"If the U.S. petitioner frames the scope of the investigation too broadly, it faces the risk of too many transactions with a "negative dumping margin" - i.e., where the export price in the U.S. is higher than the normal value</i> [that is, the "price" in the home country - Ben]." (pages 8-9)</ul>
</div>
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<name>Ben</name>
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<issued>2005-02-06T21:35:05-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-07T07:16:05Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-07T06:35:25Z</created>
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<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;An Indian View of the WTO-DG Candidates&lt;/b&gt;&#13;
&#13;
The contest for the Director-General (DG) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) pits a candidate from a developed country (Pascal Lamy of France) against three candidates from developing countries (&lt;span class="insidetxt"&gt;Jaya Krishna Cuttaree&lt;/span&gt; of Mauritius, &lt;span class="insidetxt"&gt;Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corr&lt;/span&gt;ê&lt;span class="insidetxt"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt; of Brazil, and Carlos Pérez del Castillo of Uruguay).&#13;
&#13;
&lt;i&gt;deepikaglobal.com&lt;/i&gt;, an Indian news service, surveys the field from an Indian point of view: &lt;a href="http://www.deepikaglobal.com/ENG3_sub.asp?catcode=&amp;subcatcode=&amp;amp;newscode=91907"&gt;deepikaglobal.com - National News Detail&lt;/a&gt;  The author thinks India has a choice between Pascal Lamy of France, and Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corrêa of Brazil:&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"So far as Mr Cutaree of Mauritious is concerned, while India would like to support him, his winnability could be a tough call, sources said.&#13;
&#13;
As for Carlos Perez del Castillo of Uruguay is concerned, his track record as the Chairman of the General Council at the failed Fifth Ministerial Conference at Cancun did not impress the developing countries.&#13;
&#13;
Besides carrying the European clout, the French candidate could be considered useful to New Delhi since ''we are close to Europeans in our defensive interests in agriculture'', sources said.&#13;
&#13;
At the same time, Brazil and India have become major players among the G-20 countries' grouping which has left its own imprint in the multi-lateral negotiations in agriculture. Besides, Mr Seixas Correa's call that the next WTO chief should be from the developing countries could influence the Indian trade policy-makers...&#13;
&#13;
My Lamy's appeal soliciting support from the members is quite interesting. The former EU Trade Commissioner, could not hide his disappointment at the failure of the Cancun Meeting and had described the WTO-consensus building approach as ''medieval''.&#13;
&#13;
Agreeing that he had described the WTO as ''medieval'' organisation, Mr Lamy has now reminded himself of the need for following the consensrs approach. '' The WTO must be driven by the members of the organization, and the principle of consensus must continue to govern our deliberations'', he said.&#13;
&#13;
Besides, like other DG candidates, Mr Lamy stated that ''priority must be to re-balance the international trade system in favour of the developing countries''.&#13;
&#13;
The Brazilian makes an important point in his presentation for support. According to him, the WTO cannot be allowed to remain the closed-door club of the rich countries and the voice of the developing and developed countries has become too vocal to be ignored... According to him,consensus should result from inclusive and transparent procedures."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
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<issued>2005-02-05T17:19:02-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-07T07:11:02Z</modified>
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<b>Latins for Pérez del Castillo</b>

Carlos Pérez del Castillo, the Uruguayan candidate for Director-General of the WTO, claims the support of all the Latin American countries except Cuba, Venezuela, and Brazil. Brazil has its own candidate, Felipe de Seixas Corrêa.

These are the countries mentioned in this story, dated Feb 4: <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-02/05/content_2550490.htm">"Uruguay calls for single L.A.nominee to WTO head"</a>, and in this story, dated January 29: <a href="http://www.mipunto.com/punto_noticias/noticia_latin.jsp?tipo=URUGUAYECO&amp;archivo=050129112955.hj8z3arp.txt">"Candidato uruguayo plantea "desafíos" para dirigir la OMC"</a>.</div>
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<issued>2005-02-05T16:43:17-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-06T02:47:17Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-06T01:43:33Z</created>
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<b>Does Pascal Lamy have a good chance?</b>

Deutsche Welle carries a story by Rafael Heiling quoting various German WTO experts about Pascal Lamy's good chances for winning the WTO position. <a href="http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1475319,00.html">"Good Chances for France's Lamy at WTO"</a>  .

The article is very flattering about Lamy's qualifications.  Aside from these, Georg Koopman of the Hamburg Institute of International Economics thinks he'll win because:<ul>
<i>"...he has backing from Europe, with 25 WTO members, and then he has a very good connection to the US, and to (US Trade Representative) Robert Zoellick," he said."</i>
</ul>



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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110765382773774854" rel="service.edit" title="Monday's budget may propose farm subsidy cuts" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-05T16:37:34-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-06T02:34:34Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-06T01:37:07Z</created>
<link href="#110765382773774854" rel="alternate" title="Monday's budget may propose farm subsidy cuts" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Monday's budget may propose farm subsidy cuts</title>
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<b>Monday's budget may propose farm subsidy cuts</b>

Developed country agricultural subsidies are a big issue in the ongoing Doha Round of trade negotiations. These subsidies encourage developed country agricultural production, and increase the competition faced by agricultural sectors in developing countries.

The 2002 U.S. farm bill increased U.S. agricultural subsidies, and was seen as a step back from U.S. commitment to a freer trade regime.

This weekend the <i>Financial Times</i> is reporting that the new Administration budget, to be released Monday, may contain large reductions in funding for agricultural subsidies: <a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a8f110b4-76f4-11d9-b897-00000e2511c8.html">"Bush's budget cut proposals anger farmers' lobby"</a>

As the title notes, farm state legislators and lobbyists are unhappy. The article also discusses some of the implications for the Doha trade negotiations:<ul>
<i>"The proposed cuts are likely to please US trading partners that opposed the 2002 bill, and could signal that the US is eager, for budgetary reasons, to support deep cuts in farm subsidies as part of the Doha Round world trade negotiations.

Paul Drazek, a consultant with DTB Associates in Washington, said farmers feared that “if we reduce subsidies now we would lose leverage in the Doha negotiations”.

But he said it might have the opposite effect of encouraging other countries to reduce their subsidies by showing the US is willing to move on its own."</i>
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<entry xmlns="http://purl.org/atom/ns#">
<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110759109401484670" rel="service.edit" title="The Australians opt for Pérez del Castillo" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-04T23:11:18-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-08T06:06:18Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-05T08:11:34Z</created>
<link href="#110759109401484670" rel="alternate" title="The Australians opt for Pérez del Castillo" type="text/html"/>
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<b>The Australians Opt for Pérez del Castillo</b>

<i>News.com.au</i> reports that Australia will back Uruguayan Carlos Pérez del Castillo for World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General: <a href="http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12148618-31037,00.html">"WTO support for del Castillo"</a>

The Australian National Farmers' Federation thinks the government made the right choice: <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/stories/s1298249.htm">"NFF backs del Castillo for WTO director-general"</a>. <ul>
<i>" "NFF president Peter Corish says the Uruguayan is a trade reformer, which would be a great benefit for farmers here.

"We know Carlos Perez del Castillo very well.

"We've had a lot to do with him over the past few years in trade negotiations; he went to university here in Australia, he knows Australian farming very well; he's actually married to an Australian, and he's one of the real leaders for trade reform on an international basis."

But the main rival to Australia's choice as head of the WTO - current EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy - is expected to receive strong support.

Australia's former ambassador to the WTO Alan Oxley says Mr Lamy has done his best to stifle trade reform, and his election to the director-generalship would be a blow to farmers.

"The director-general should be a free-trader: he's a French socialist.

"You won't find anything written by him that indicates he's believer in free trade.

"He's also been, on behalf of the European Community, the leading advocate of introducing into the WTO, what we call, non-trade concerns.

"Finally: Lamy - he's a European, he would work for solutions that worked for Europe, and agriculture's so important: so it'd be a pretty bad result for Australia."" "</i>
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<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-02T13:38:15-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-03T07:55:15Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-02T21:38:56Z</created>
<link href="#110738033688603387" rel="alternate" title="Why don't people walk up escalators?" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Why don't people walk up escalators?</title>
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<b>Why don't people walk up escalators?</b>

Craig Newmark channels Steven Landsburg and Steve Margolis at <a href="http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/mainblog/2005/02/two_and_a_half_.html">Newmark's Door</a> .
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110737813829977627" rel="service.edit" title="Call Centers: Good News for Africa" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-02T13:02:33-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-03T07:39:33Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-02T21:02:18Z</created>
<link href="#110737813829977627" rel="alternate" title="Call Centers: Good News for Africa" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Call Centers: Good News for Africa</title>
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<b>Call Centers: Good News for Africa</b>

Abiola Lapite (<i>Foreign Dispatches</i>) has a good story from the <i>New York Times</i> on the outsourcing of call centers from developed to African countries: <a href="http://foreigndispatches.typepad.com/dispatches/2005/02/outsourcing_rea.html#more">"Outsourcing Reaches Africa"</a> . There's a lot of potential here, but Lapite sees the national telecommunications monopolies as a continuing barrier to increased activity.
<ul>
<u>Part of the <i>Times</i> story</u>: <i>"...Kenya's regular phone lines are so abysmal that the founders of KenCall had to go through the cumbersome process of getting government approval to use a costly satellite hookup. Even more dollars were burned on an elaborate generator system aimed at keeping KenCall's computer screens running during Nairobi's frequent power failures..."</i>

<u>Some of Lapite's commentary</u>: "...<i>Outsourcing has the potential to prove as great a boon to French and (particularly) English-speaking Africa as it has for India, if only the national carriers could be shoved out of the way. Unfortunately, the incentives in most sub-Saharan African countries are such that this is unlikely to happen in the near future without significant external pressure: why privatize a parastatal which is both a handy tool for ethnic patronage and a cash cow? If the likes of Gordon Brown and Jeffrey Sachs really wish to make a difference in Africa, I'd suggest they hold off on the calls for debt forgiveneness and start by cajoling the continent's rulers to open up their telecoms and electricity sectors to local and foreign competition."</i>
</ul>I learned about this from AdamSmithee.com: <a href="http://adamsmithee.blogs.com/blog/2005/02/want_a_mortgage.html">"Want a Mortgage? Call Africa"</a>.
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110737385438250655" rel="service.edit" title="Summary of Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine crisis" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-02T10:50:47-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-03T07:20:47Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-02T19:50:54Z</created>
<link href="#110737385438250655" rel="alternate" title="Summary of Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine crisis" type="text/html"/>
<id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3616699.post-110737385438250655</id>
<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Summary of Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine crisis</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;Summary of Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine crisis&lt;/b&gt;&#13;
&#13;
Here's the &lt;i&gt;Publisher's Weekly&lt;/i&gt; summary of Paul Blustein's new book on the Argentine financial crisis, as copied from the Amazon web site (&lt;a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1586482459/qid=1107373658/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/104-3634892-9713518?v=glance&amp;s=books&amp;amp;n=507846"&gt;And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out): Wall Street, the IMF, and the Bankrupting of Argentina&lt;/a&gt; ):&#13;
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Argentina's economic boom in the 1990s made it a "poster-child" for the "Washington consensus" of market-oriented reform; when the currency, banking system, economy and a succession of governments all collapsed in 2001, the country became an object lesson in the pitfalls of that model. Journalist Blustein (The Chastening) offers a fine postmortem of the debacle, from a more centrist perspective than the subtitle might suggest. The problem, he contends, lay in Argentina's unsustainable government deficits and its policy of tying the currency to a rigid exchange rate of one peso to the dollar, a measure that ended hyperinflation, but, when the dollar soared, eventually priced Argentinean products out of the market. He criticizes the International Monetary Fund and Wall Street not for imposing austerity, but for indulgently lending Argentina vast sums, despite warning signs, that saddled it with debt and delayed a necessary devaluation and loan restructuring. Blustein's discussion of Argentina's free trade policies and their effects on industry and employment is skimpier than it should be. But working from a colorful inside account of the decision-making processes of the IMF and international investors, he does an admirable job of elucidating the complexities of international finance, currency reform and debt, taking note of their consequences for ordinary people. (Feb. 1)   Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&#13;
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110711411081452031" rel="service.edit" title="FY 2004 Byrd Amendment Payouts" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-01T22:00:49-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-02T07:02:49Z</modified>
<created>2005-01-30T19:41:50Z</created>
<link href="#110711411081452031" rel="alternate" title="FY 2004 Byrd Amendment Payouts" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">FY 2004 Byrd Amendment Payouts</title>
<content mode="escaped" type="text/html" xml:base="http://web.acsalaska.net/~benmuse/blog/" xml:space="preserve">&lt;b&gt;FY 2004 Byrd Amendment Payouts&lt;/b&gt;&#13;
&#13;
Under the Byrd Amendment, revenues from anti-dumping tariffs are paid to the producers that filed the original anti-dumping petitions with the U.S. Department of Commerce.&#13;
&#13;
Companies subject to anti-dumping penalities are hit twice - once by the original tariff, and again when their competitors get the income from the tariffs.  Recall that there are already problems with the fairness of the anti-dumping laws in any event: &lt;a href="http://web.acsalaska.net/%7Ebenmuse/blog/2005_01_01_archive.html#110707131172379063"&gt;"Friends of anti-dumping negotiations"&lt;/a&gt;.&#13;
&#13;
The WTO has ruled that the Byrd Amendment violates the trade agreements to which the U.S. has committed itself.&#13;
&#13;
The Consuming Industries Trade Action Coalition (CITAC) reports on FY 2004 Byrd Amendment payouts, here: &lt;a href="http://www.citac.info/byrd_amendment/winners2004.htm"&gt;"Repeal The "Byrd Amendment"&lt;/a&gt;.&#13;
&#13;
Total disbursements under the law to date (FY 2001 to FY 2004) are just over $1 billion. Total disbursements in FY 2004 were about $284 million. Total FY 2004 disbursements to the Timken Company, a maker of bearings - about $53 million; total FY 2004 disbursements to the Lancaster Colony Corp, a maker of candles - about $26 million. The impact on industries using imports:&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"Many consuming industries rely on imports of raw materials or components to maintain global competitiveness. The Byrd Amendment provides a double hit on importers of products subject to antidumping and countervailing duties. They not only must pay these duties (which, because of the "retrospective" system of collection, are of uncertain amount) but also must see them transferred to their U.S. competitors. The Byrd Amendment encourages U.S. producers to file... actions knowing full well they will be eligible for monetary distributions. U.S. companies in line to receive these payments have a clear incentive to include more products within the scope of cases, including products not even made in the United States. Consumers see cases filed because of the promise of Byrd money (such as the infamous shrimp case). Other cases include within their scope products not produced here, such as certain antifriction bearings (e.g., certain metric sizes and metallurgical requirements); and steel wire rod for "cold-heading" and manufacture of wire for tire cord."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;a href="http://citac.info/"&gt;CITAC&lt;/a&gt; is an association of businesses that use imported goods in their production processes, and want to protect their access to foreign markets.&#13;
&#13;
The CITAC web site has several other resources on the Byrd Amendment.  The &lt;a href="http://www.citac.info/release/2004/05_27.htm"&gt;"Rushford Report"&lt;/a&gt; describes the case against the Amendment.   Here is a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the Byrd Amendment: &lt;a href="http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5130&amp;sequence=0"&gt;"Economic Analysis of The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act of 2000"&lt;/a&gt;.  The CBO's bottom line?&lt;ul&gt;&lt;i&gt;"The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA) of 2000 was enacted on October 28, 2000, as part of the appropriations act for Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies programs for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2001. CDSOA requires that the revenues from antidumping and countervailing duties on a given import be distributed on an annual basis to the domestic producers that were either petitioners or interested parties supporting the petition in the case that resulted in the duties being levied on that import. Under CDSOA, $231 million in duty revenues was distributed in 2001, $330 million in 2002, and $293 million in 2003.(1) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that distributions will total $3.85 billion from 2005 through 2014. On June 16, 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body agreed with the ruling of an earlier panel that CDSOA violates the WTO agreement by providing remedies for dumping and subsidies beyond those permitted by the agreement. The United States is therefore vulnerable to retaliation--the amount has not yet been determined--if it does not repeal or modify the law.&#13;
&#13;
In addition to the prospect of foreign retaliation against U.S. exports, the distributions mandated by CDSOA are detrimental to the overall economic welfare of the United States because (1) they encourage the filing of more antidumping and countervailing-duty cases, resulting in more duties that on balance harm the economy; (2) they subsidize the firms receiving them, preventing resources from flowing to higher-value activities in other firms and industries; and (3) they increase the private and public cost associated with the operation and implementation of the laws. They also discourage settlement of cases by U.S. firms, which has mixed effects on the economy."&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;</content>
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<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-01T13:26:54-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-02T06:07:54Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-01T21:26:50Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Loose use of term of abuse</title>
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<b>Loose use of term of abuse</b>

Ian Cook, at <i>Truck and Barter</i> reports on casual media claims of price gouging at the Michael Jackson trial: <a href="http://truckandbarter.com/mt/archives/000410.html">"Price Gouging Sans Tragedy?"</a>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110729128324824055" rel="service.edit" title="Competition and newspaper bias" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-02-01T11:54:11-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-02T05:14:11Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-01T20:54:43Z</created>
<link href="#110729128324824055" rel="alternate" title="Competition and newspaper bias" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">Competition and newspaper bias</title>
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<b>Competition and newspaper bias</b>

Mahalanobis points to a lecture by Andrei Shleifer outlining a "demand-based theory of media bias": <a href="http://mahalanobis.twoday.net/stories/497510/">"The Marketplace of Ideas"</a>
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<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-01-31T22:25:59-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-01T07:25:59Z</modified>
<created>2005-01-31T23:25:49Z</created>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">"Do you want that with fries?</title>
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<b>Do you want that with fries?</b>

John Palmer (the <i>Eccentric Econoclast</i>) points to an example of the substitution North Dakota minimum wage labor (and a little capital) for Oregon minimum wage labor: <a href="http://the-econoclast.blogspot.com/2005/01/capital-labour-substitution-in-fast.html">"Capital-Labour Substitution in Fast Foods"</a>
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<link href="http://www.blogger.com/atom/3616699/110724104819331639" rel="service.edit" title="What does the Director-General of the WTO do?" type="application/atom+xml"/>
<author>
<name>Ben</name>
</author>
<issued>2005-01-31T21:54:44-09:00</issued>
<modified>2005-02-01T08:05:44Z</modified>
<created>2005-02-01T06:57:28Z</created>
<link href="#110724104819331639" rel="alternate" title="What does the Director-General of the WTO do?" type="text/html"/>
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<title mode="escaped" type="text/html">What does the Director-General of the WTO do?</title>
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<b>What does the <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/dg_e.htm">Director-General</a> of the WTO do?</b>

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in the process of selecting a Director General (DG) for the next four years. The WTO DG is responsible for running the WTO's 600 person <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/secre_e/intro_e.htm">secretariat</a> in Geneva. The DG is not a decision maker with respect to the details of trade agreements; the WTO members take the member-driven nature of the organization seriously.  But the DG can play an important role in the negotiations. The size of the role depends on the DG's initiative and character.

During his <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/dg_e/stat_lamy_e.htm">speech to the World Trade Organization's General Council</a> on January 26, WTO Director-General (DG) candidate Pascal Lamy described how he saw the role of the WTO DG: <ul>
<i>"...I think that the role of the DG is threefold: he is a manager; he is an advocate; and he is a honest-broker...

Why a manager? Because he is responsible for the activities of the Secretariat, for the conduct of WTO operations, for the management of WTO personnel. He must fix objectives, and evaluate performance. And because he is given this job, he is himself responsible for his own performance before the members who vote the budget. He must manage, and in order to manage, he must motivate, lead, and reform if necessary, notably in the direction of transparency...

Why an advocate? Because the DG is spokesman for the organization and the goals defined by the members of the organization. In Geneva and in national capitals, where he must be capable of opening doors. In the media. In debate, notably with those who criticise us, sometimes fairly, but also with those who have even more fundamental objections. To do so, the DG must be able to speak several languages. The language of our WTO agreements, in which we are of course all masters of its sometimes obscure (at least for the non-initiated) complexities. But also the simple language of international public opinion. A Director General must convince. And to do that, he must be convinced. For example, on the priority of multilateralism over bilateral agreements, whatever their virtues...

Why an honest broker? Because the members of the organization have different positions, sometimes conflictual, and these differences are if anything growing as our membership grows. The solution remains in the art of compromise between sovereign nations. The DG must therefore be able to facilitate, he must be considered by the members as an objective interlocutor, an intermediary in whom everybody has confidence, capable of reducing disagreement, mistrust, and prejudice. He must be ready to make a contribution as a catalyst in this peculiar chemistry set of consensus, in full co-operation with those to whom you have conferred responsibilities as chairmen of different councils and committees. He must be both engineer and mechanic, with the WTO agreements as his technical manual. He must be ready to stand aside when necessary. And to be available when necessary.

The sheer complexity and necessity of this role is not, I fully recognise, precisely defined by the texts which govern this organization. The DG of the WTO has no “powers” of this kind. Because the organization remains member driven, he has no right to such a role, he must earn it. And in what currency is this role earned? In trust. The DG must construct a trust-fund with a revenue stream based on respect for his role. Not to save it. But to spend it, in the service of the organization."</i>
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